Kmarion wrote:
FEOS wrote:
Iran has been offered international assistance in getting a power-grade program up and running. They have refused. Why? Because this isn't about--and has never been about--electrical power...it's about becoming a nuclear power. Electrical power generation is merely a benefit.
I honestly thought that most of those promoting a nuclear Iran had already
acknowledged that and had shifted arguments. The argument of everyone should be allowed nuclear weapons.
Btw, what happened to the constant predictions of a George Bush led invasion into Iran? K.
There is a power vacuum in the middle east. Iran wants to take the place as
the power-broker in the region. Iran was fighting with Saddam's Iraq over this very issue.
Amusingly enough, Iran is pulling the same shell-game that got Iraq into trouble; Talk like they're developing WMDs out of one corner of their mouth, and claim it is all for peaceful purposes out of the other corner of their mouth. To not admit that much, is either naivety or worse - regardless of what Iran does or doesn't have currently.
*
Hint: Satellite launching missile and ICBM, or Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapon - the technical knowledge & research needed is 95% the same. The difference is in how the politicians decide to use it that week.
*
Hint: Look at the
type of reactors Iran wants to build. There are ones that are
definitely for making weapons materials, ones that are dual-purpose 'maybe, kinda, possibly', and ones that are 'no, not in 100 years' reactors.
For an overview of a too-obvious attempt at building a weapons-grade plutonium manufacturing chain, read up on Iraq's
Osirak reactor, especially the bit about
"French gas-graphite plutonium producing reactor and a reprocessing plant". That's the place that was bombed by Israel, Iran, and the USA, at various times.
Saudi Arabia is Saudi Arabia. They are their own unique, powerful but fragile ... entity. They are not going to play the role of regional 'kingmaker' in the public eye.
Pakistan is going to hell in a handbasket, with a quickness. They are down, if not out.
Iraq is not going to be a regional powerbroker for the forseeable future.
Kuwait, Jordan, Quatar, Syria, Yemen, Oman, etc, etc, etc.. are all 2nd (& 3rd) tier players in the region.
In chess terms, we're in the mid-game. What the end-game board is going to look like, only an expert player can tell now (and I am not one, obviously).
Where we're at now, and where we'll be in 20 years - is a straight line, if you know how to connect the dots. Wish I did. Hope to be around in 20 years to say "oh,
that's what that meant".
Regardless of what the chessboard (middle east) looks like, it matters more who's actually standing around the table watching the game
and who the players are. USA is obviously one of the players - but are we playing against China, Russia, House of Saud, or someone else?
(Would be supremely tricky if we were playing solitaire, now, wouldn't it? After all, we did make Osama in the '70's... But there lies the land of tinfoil, jiffy pop, and Art Bell).