When pollsters do their polls, voters are typically asked to pick one or the other. The polls typically reflect those who both strongly support and those who are leaning toward a candidate ... they don't often break out this weak middle who are vacillating.
A friend of mine was surveying some of those who had been doing early voting, and he noted that weakly leaning Obama supporters were having second thoughts at the polls ... and they voted for McCain. It was a "devil you know" kind of mentality that affects people in times of chaos. He wasn't doing a scientific poll, just gathering information.
Then I looked this morning at the IBD/TIPP poll (one of the few that articulates the soft middle, or mostly undecided group), and I've noticed that this group is deciding upon McCain at a 3 to 1 rate.
For example, a week ago, there were 12.2% of American voters who were still "unsure" of how they would vote ... in the last week, this number has decreased to 8.7% with McCain rising 2.7% and Obama rising 0.9%. If that trend held with the remaining 8.7% (still a large number of voters), then McCain would win to 51.1% to 48.9%.
Yeah, I know. Perhaps it is merely a sliver of hope for McCain backers(pollwise), but I think it underscores just how volatile the electorate is right now ... really, this is not a done deal for Obama. Anything could happen.
The only group that seems to be "set" in their voting is the 18-24 year olds. All other groups are much more volatile at this late point in the 2008 election than any I've noticed before.
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN
A friend of mine was surveying some of those who had been doing early voting, and he noted that weakly leaning Obama supporters were having second thoughts at the polls ... and they voted for McCain. It was a "devil you know" kind of mentality that affects people in times of chaos. He wasn't doing a scientific poll, just gathering information.
Then I looked this morning at the IBD/TIPP poll (one of the few that articulates the soft middle, or mostly undecided group), and I've noticed that this group is deciding upon McCain at a 3 to 1 rate.
For example, a week ago, there were 12.2% of American voters who were still "unsure" of how they would vote ... in the last week, this number has decreased to 8.7% with McCain rising 2.7% and Obama rising 0.9%. If that trend held with the remaining 8.7% (still a large number of voters), then McCain would win to 51.1% to 48.9%.
Yeah, I know. Perhaps it is merely a sliver of hope for McCain backers(pollwise), but I think it underscores just how volatile the electorate is right now ... really, this is not a done deal for Obama. Anything could happen.
The only group that seems to be "set" in their voting is the 18-24 year olds. All other groups are much more volatile at this late point in the 2008 election than any I've noticed before.
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN
