whittsend wrote:
I never said that anyone didn't think we'd win. Everyone knew we would. Nevertheless, you cannot discount the fact that an army that size has the potential to inflict a lot of casualties, regardless of their training. The largest single factor in the Kill ratio you noted is that the Iraqi army more or less rolled over. Finding an Iraqi unit that would stand and fight was the exception, not the rule. If they hadn't given up before they started (or if their commanders had a brain between them and made it an Urban fight) those numbers would have been different. Anyone who wasn't concerned, wasn't thinking...or was a damn 'rah rah' armchair soldier looking forward to seeing shit blow up. To say that this is an example of the US taking on a conflict it couldn't lose is the comment of one who has seen combat only on TV.
I don't discount that an army that size can cause casualties, however even before the war started, the analysist knew that there was just no way Iraq had a chance short of divine intervention by Allah himself. Why did the White House list rather high expected casualty numbers? It is a technique used buy just about every salesman out there. You give a very high number for something thereby setting an expectation in the buyers mind for the implied value of the object. Once you do that, you can lower the number to something that might be more reasonable to them psychologically, but yet still be overpriced. By releasing the high numbers, it was able to "prepare" the American public for deaths, but then have them say, well...it was only 200 deaths vs. 30,000 so we did good.
Iraq didn't "roll over"...they were relentlessly saturation and precision bombed for three weeks. Their supply lines were devestated. Their Command, Communications, and Control (CCC) was almost completely destroyed. Their tanks were getting "plinked" every night from long range by Apaches and A-10s. The term "softening up" comes to mind, but how can you soften up what was already a marshmallow? You can't. The only thing that is left is goo.
Making it an urban fight wouldn't have made a bit of a difference. Perhaps the casualties might have been a little higher, but we would have still gained air superiority, precision bombed their armor no matter where it was, and then rolled in using combined armor and ground troops. Iraqi cities are not "urban" like New York. It is more open areas and small buildings. The only medium sized buildings are places like hotels and government centers. If Iraqi troops were detected by the Forward Observation Officers to be holed up in one of those buildings, they would flatten the shack with a precision guided bomb.
Also, please put yourself into the shoes of the Iraqi soldiers. You make it sound like it is an easy tactical decision to turn a conflict into an urban fight. It is not. NO SOLDIER IN THE WORLD wants to fight where their family, friends, and houses are at. They will make their stand AWAY cities and only fight at their home as a last resort. In addition, it isn't like they had a vast intelligence network, spy sats, and legions of analysts trying to figure out the coalition's military strength and troop movements. Iraq had access to as much knowledge of our military capabilities as the average American citizen had from watching CNN. Which ironically, is where Iraq WAS getting its intelligence from. Finally, based on THEIR experience, they fought the Gulf War exactly how they had fought Iran and believed that they would at least be able to stall the advance and create enough casualties to get the American public to get cold feet. A good comparison would be the French thinking that the Maginot line would protect them from the German advance in World War II. It would have been a great tactic if the weapons were still from WW I, but the weapons of war had advanced.
whittsend wrote:
1) When I said you were being naive I was referring to the fact that you implied that terrorism in China does not involve a sovreign sponsor. It may very well not, but to categorically deny it is possible is absolutely naive.
If that is what you interpreted, that was not my intent. I was simply saying a terrorist action and a military strike/campaign are very different and that just because somebody sponsors an action, that doesn't mean that MILITARY action will take place. Is is possible? Sure. Likely? I have my doubts. Again, I can only think of two nations have a history of pre-emptive and retaliatory strikes against sovereign nations for claimed terrorist support. Those two nations are Israel and the US. I am not making any judgements against either nation by that statement, just stating the facts. If anybody else has any other examples, they would be welcome.
whittsend wrote:
2) Re: US/USSR support of guerillas vs. Islamic States supporting terrorism: The difference is that a country who is/was being attacked by guerillas sponsored by the US or USSR is/was EXTREMELY unlikely to attack the sponsor. This is the difference between attacking Syria/Libya/Iran vs. attacking the US...which would YOU rather fight? Can you picture El Salvador attacking the US, even indirectly, in response to our open support of the Contras? Not too likely. We would have used it as an excuse to flatten them. Reagan WANTED an excuse back then, only an idiot would have given it to him.
Correct. However, wouldn't that be the same as China directly attacking the MEC or an MEC member because of supposed terrorist sponsorship?
whittsend wrote:
Now, let's look a the Hypothetical I implied above as a basis for a game map: China determines that a soverign Islamic state in South Asia is sponsoring terrorism in Xinjaing (I'd say this is probably not actually the case, but it is FAR from impossible). You think there isn't any way that China would attack them? I'd say there's a 70%-30% chance they would. I doubt the thought of a humiliating defeat (a la US vs. El Salvador) would restrain them.
I think it is best to view the fictional MEC as a Middle Eastern version of NATO or the old Warsaw Pact, not just one Muslim nation. So while it is easy to think of China launching an attack against Iran or Pakistan, such an attack would risk garnering the military response of the entire MEC. This would of course include oil sanctions against China. Possible? Yeah, but so is the possibility of Canada attacking the US. Likely? No.
Historically, while China has talked a lot of big talk, they have never shown themselves to be a militaristic nation. They have not engaged in a large scale military action in over 50 years. Ironically, the US has been in 4. Whereas I am not comfortable putting a percentage to it, I think it is statistically more likely that China would follow a diplomatic path rather than launching a retaliatory strike. Yes, there are probably boarder skirmishes between China and some of its neighbors...but all out war? Unlikely in MY opinion.
whittsend wrote:
China has the largest army in the world, and has pretensions of being THE Asian power. If it were determined that terrorism in their borders were sponsored by another country, they would lose a great deal of face if they didn't strike back. They are throwing a lot of money at that region lately, so they wouldn't take too kindly to some other nation deliberately screwing it up. If they determined that terrorism in their own country were being sponsored by a bordering (or near bordering) country, I believe they would use the currently vogue 'anti-terrorism' mantra to teach that country a severe lesson (and in game terms, such a conflict could easily drag in the entire MEC).
(see response to your point about guerillas and terrorist.)
I think that they would instead look at how the situation has progressed in the Mid-East with the US and think twice. I DO see them making precision strikes using covert teams, assassinations, and the like. Large scale military engagements using tanks, planes, and a few divisions of troops? Naaaah. Something like that would be too loud and far more difficult to hide from the rest of the world. Better to hit them nice and quiet like.
whittsend wrote:
This is MUCH a more likely scenario than the US/China conflict we already see in the game; for the very economic reasons YOU pointed out in an earlier post. The world's largest market and the world's largest _potential_ market need each other far too much to fight with each other.
Agreed. BUT...in a world of diminishing energy resources there is the possibility of such an engagement happening over the acquisition (by force or otherwise) of those resources. Interestingly enough, note that 3 of the 4 Chinese maps have oil and nuclear power facilities on them. Without energy, a modern nation looses the ability to grow or even sustain their economy. Will I put a percentage on those chances? No. But generally, when there are two big dogs on the block, a fight is inevitable.
Great debate, btw.
- Beatdown
Last edited by Beatdown Patrol (2005-12-23 12:58:35)