| none they will gain | 18% | 18% - 17 | ||||
| 1-3 | 8% | 8% - 8 | ||||
| 3-6 | 6% | 6% - 6 | ||||
| 6-9 | 6% | 6% - 6 | ||||
| 9-12 | 8% | 8% - 8 | ||||
| 12-15 | 10% | 10% - 10 | ||||
| 15-18 | 6% | 6% - 6 | ||||
| 18-21 | 9% | 9% - 9 | ||||
| 21-23 | 5% | 5% - 5 | ||||
| 24+ | 17% | 17% - 16 | ||||
| Total: 91 | ||||||
Last edited by IG-Calibre (2006-10-22 09:42:48)
Woah...I agreeded with you, holy shit.Ikarti wrote:
Whoever voted that they will gain is seriously out of touch with reality.
LOL, thats all I gotta say, I won't say anymore than that, just check back on this thread Nov 8th, I don't even want to debate this, just, check back later.Masques wrote:
21-23 and they'll probably pick up 3 senate seats. The Dems will probably take the House but the Reps will still own the Senate.
Anything is possible, but yes, it looks like gaining is the last thing that the Republicans will do in this election.Ikarti wrote:
Whoever voted that they will gain is seriously out of touch with reality.
All polls show the Dems with the same (or greater) approval difference with respect to the Reps that the Republicans had in 1994 when they took the House.AlbertWesker[RE] wrote:
LOL, thats all I gotta say, I won't say anymore than that, just check back on this thread Nov 8th, I don't even want to debate this, just, check back later.Masques wrote:
21-23 and they'll probably pick up 3 senate seats. The Dems will probably take the House but the Reps will still own the Senate.
or they are a die hard Republician.Ikarti wrote:
Whoever voted that they will gain is seriously out of touch with reality.
ALL polls? I doubt it. The Repubs took how many seats in 94, 22?? Can't remember. The Dems this year would be lucky to get 15. Like I said, thats my prediction, I hate polls, just wait 17 days (Nov 8th), and we can talk more about what happened. There is no point debating this crap right now, I'm sick of all these so called definitive polls (with samples of 1000 people). Good day to you all, and good luck to all Republicans and Democrats, Libertarians, and all other candidates running this Nov. It shall definitely be an interesting race to watch no matter who comes out on top. Peace.Masques wrote:
All polls show the Dems with the same (or greater) approval difference with respect to the Reps that the Republicans had in 1994 when they took the House.AlbertWesker[RE] wrote:
LOL, thats all I gotta say, I won't say anymore than that, just check back on this thread Nov 8th, I don't even want to debate this, just, check back later.Masques wrote:
21-23 and they'll probably pick up 3 senate seats. The Dems will probably take the House but the Reps will still own the Senate.
Random samples are more accurate than a full count for large populations, which is why the census is usually fucked up but polls have a MOE of only +-3-4%. So generally if a reputable organization has a poll (ie. Gallup) does a survey of 1500 people the results will usually predict the outcome. I should add that a poll with a randomized sample of 1000 individuals will have a margin of error of 3%, 95% of the time and for a MOE of 1% a sample size of ~10000 is needed.AlbertWesker[RE] wrote:
ALL polls? I doubt it. The Repubs took how many seats in 94, 22?? Can't remember. The Dems this year would be lucky to get 15. Like I said, thats my prediction, I hate polls, just wait 17 days (Nov 8th), and we can talk more about what happened. There is no point debating this crap right now, I'm sick of all these so called definitive polls (with samples of 1000 people). Good day to you all, and good luck to all Republicans and Democrats, Libertarians, and all other candidates running this Nov. It shall definitely be an interesting race to watch no matter who comes out on top. Peace.
I agree, I must........The methods are sound, I know, I'm just ventingMasques wrote:
Random samples are more accurate than a full count for large populations, which is why the census is usually fucked up but polls have a MOE of only +-3-4%. So generally if a reputable organization has a poll (ie. Gallup) does a survey of 1500 people the results will usually predict the outcome. I should add that a poll with a randomized sample of 1000 individuals will have a margin of error of 3%, 95% of the time and for a MOE of 1% a sample size of ~10000 is needed.AlbertWesker[RE] wrote:
ALL polls? I doubt it. The Repubs took how many seats in 94, 22?? Can't remember. The Dems this year would be lucky to get 15. Like I said, thats my prediction, I hate polls, just wait 17 days (Nov 8th), and we can talk more about what happened. There is no point debating this crap right now, I'm sick of all these so called definitive polls (with samples of 1000 people). Good day to you all, and good luck to all Republicans and Democrats, Libertarians, and all other candidates running this Nov. It shall definitely be an interesting race to watch no matter who comes out on top. Peace.
You may not "believe" in polls, but the methods used are sound.
Vent somewhere else, yer steamin' up my monitor! j/kAlbertWesker[RE] wrote:
I agree, I must........The methods are sound, I know, I'm just venting
Gallup does a wonderful job as does Rasmussen, I know all about stats and methods, I'm just cranky
I do believe that should be the point. Nothing to fuck up.Kmarion wrote:
In all honesty I hope it evens out. I don't think one parties views should dominate for so long. I hope it doesn't turn the Govt into a stalemate also. Nothing gets accomplished then.
Last edited by Masques (2006-10-23 10:20:12)
Not being able to make adjustments to an ever changing world is a fuck up.Masques wrote:
I do believe that should be the point. Nothing to fuck up.Kmarion wrote:
In all honesty I hope it evens out. I don't think one parties views should dominate for so long. I hope it doesn't turn the Govt into a stalemate also. Nothing gets accomplished then.
LOL, yeah well its things like this Lancet survey that set me offMasques wrote:
Vent somewhere else, yer steamin' up my monitor! j/kAlbertWesker[RE] wrote:
I agree, I must........The methods are sound, I know, I'm just venting
Gallup does a wonderful job as does Rasmussen, I know all about stats and methods, I'm just cranky
Happens to us all.
Last edited by IG-Calibre (2006-10-24 04:59:53)
16% are delusional.IG-Calibre wrote:
interesting indeed - so far around 37% that have voted believe that the Democrats will regain the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. 13% believe that the Republicans will hold on to it by the skin of their teeth, while 16% believe that the Republicans will walk away with total unequivocal support & backing for the incumbent administration. Keep voting!!
which 16%? those that think that the Republicans are gonna be driven out of town, or, the other 16% that the Republicans will walk away with total unequivocal support & backing for the incumbent administration*.Ikarti wrote:
16% are delusional.IG-Calibre wrote:
interesting indeed - so far around 37% that have voted believe that the Democrats will regain the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. 13% believe that the Republicans will hold on to it by the skin of their teeth, while 16% believe that the Republicans will walk away with total unequivocal support & backing for the incumbent administration. Keep voting!!
If you set out to question a specific group of people then your results will obviously be skewed, but that's why polling organizations use random sampling. It maximizes reliability which is why (again) polls are usually accurate to within 1-3%.Stingray24 wrote:
Polls are as accurate as the group chosen to question. Ask the right group of people your question and you'll get the answer you want. Polls are crap.