Horseman 77
Banned
+160|7077
Many people have been waiting out the Hunt for Osama Bin Laden.

Just like the hunt for Saddam Hussien
His sons and all his henchmen.

With the recent capture or death of many top level terrorist we have been informed by the American Media that

" Decapitating the enemy's command structure is not a good thing in a War "

" it is of little consequence to the big picture"
 
" no Blow to the Enemies morale when they realize even their leaders are not safe from coalition forces."

So my question is, What will be the Down side to killing or capturing Bin Ladden.

Or how will they Spin it ?



* in a previous post I put it to the suggestion that it would be better to forgo the propaganda coup and hide his capture or death from his followers. See below.
1.   If you a put him to death.

He is seen as a Martyr for his Cause. Something l suspect he has little interest in Really doing.
He is seen by his Followers as Faithful to his words. Something I suspect he is not.
His followers rally to his example in an orgy of suicide attacks.

As a by product another man steps up to take his place.
Perhaps this one is more clever, a better leader and more political minded
when it come to manipulating the western worlds fears.

2.   If you put him on trial.

His followers engage in a Spree of kidnapping, hostage taking and wanton destruction in an effort to get him released.
As a by product another man steps up to take his place.
Perhaps this one is more clever a better leader and more political minded when it come to manipulating the western worlds fears.

3.  Or You detain him clandestinely in a remote, quite and secure place.

Forgo the brief and fleeting satisfaction you may get by parading him around for the
world to See "ALA Saddam Hussein "

The Left wing Media chided Bush on his " Failure to Capture Saddam " 

( as if it was his responsibility to go out there with a .20 gauge looking for him personally )

When the Soldiers tasked with the Job accomplished it and captured Saddam Hussien.
They refereed to him as " A helpless, poor old man who resembles Santa Claus. "
And just as quickly forgot about The Triumph as it ran counter to their Cause.

No one can call him "a Martyr for the Cause "
No one dares step up to replace him because " what if he does reappear? "
These people do not handle political rivals with kid gloves.
No Spree of kidnapping, hostage taking and wanton destruction in an effort to get him released.

Last edited by Horseman 77 (2006-06-11 08:58:00)

seymorebutts443
Ready for combat
+211|6835|Belchertown Massachusetts, USA
someone who is more insane in beliefs than osama will take his place
kessel!
Peruvian Cocaine
+261|7005|Toronto Canada

seymorebutts443 wrote:

someone who is more insane in beliefs than osama will take his place
yes probably. this is the problem with taking out extremist leaders, because a more extreme leader will rise up after that.
Xietsu
Banned
+50|6796
You aren't prodding at how their could be a possibility that Osama Bin Laden wouldn't be replaced, due to some inkling of "fear" on his allies' part, are you? Saddam Hussein was completely different as a dictator, whereas Osama is just a monetary underpinning (and possibly an orchestrator on the whole). It's silly to say that he doesn't already have someone set to replace him--he knows his time will come.

Last edited by Xietsu (2006-06-11 17:35:02)

JohnnyBlanco
Member
+44|6811|England
bin laden might be taken alive, if he's given the choice and does'nt have 2 500lb bombs knocking on the door. It might fuck em up for a few months, but they'll keep on killing random people in the name of allah. IMO we've gotta start showing the average arab were not all wankers and hopefully over time they will calm down, sorting iraq out will help but there is no quick fix.
Point&Shoot
Tank Whore
+52|6787|Canada
If you take down America's #1 terrorist/enemy they'll just have to choose another one.
Eurasian or Eastasia doesn't matter who you're fighting or why, just that you have someone to fight.
Major_Spittle
Banned
+276|6895|United States of America
Your right on Horseman.  I have wondered for a long time now if we don't already have Osama.  I would hope our government is smart enough to get intelligence out of him for a few months at least before letting all al quida know we caught him.  The Sadam/Al Zaquwari captures were done in a stupid way in my opinion.  Why would you tell the enemy you caught their leader so they can all go into hiding, move weapon caches, move their money, and change plans that have been compromised.

I guess instant boosts in popularity ratings are more important than the actual war.
Xietsu
Banned
+50|6796
Politics FTW?

http://forums.bf2s.com/viewtopic.php?id=29075 <--- Go here and partake in duh pohleeng.

Last edited by Xietsu (2006-06-11 09:51:28)

Bubbalo
The Lizzard
+541|6801
I think they should stop trying to hunt him down.  The only upside to catching him is the propaganda victory, which will probably work in his favour anyway.  He doesn't have any real control over any terrorist cells.
CameronPoe
Member
+2,925|6795
It will be similar to the upshot of Israel's targeted assassination campaign against the leaders of Palestinian militant factions - it will become apparent that there is a LONG queue of replacement leaders ready to step up to the plate. Guerrilla warfare needs very little leadership or co-ordination anyway - it is undefeatable and will continue for as long as I'll live. Conventional military operations can never eradicate an enemy you can't even see or can't pin down to a particular country that you can blow up. I'm afraid it will be a gradually increasing death toll for the coalition forces for as long as they remain in the front line. It's like the germans fighting the USSR in WWII - they'd kill a thousand russians and there'd be another thousand running towards them over the next hill. My advice to the US - stick to securing your domestic security and find some other means of undermining the Islamic militants in the rest of the world.

PS I reckon they'll 'catch' Osama in the run-up to the next US general election: conveniently making the republican candidate more electable so the current administration can continue their shadowy policies.
Xietsu
Banned
+50|6796

CameronPoe wrote:

It will be similar to the upshot of Israel's targeted assassination campaign against the leaders of Palestinian militant factions - it will become apparent that there is a LONG queue of replacement leaders ready to step up to the plate. Guerrilla warfare needs very little leadership or co-ordination anyway - it is undefeatable and will continue for as long as I'll live. Conventional military operations can never eradicate an enemy you can't even see or can't pin down to a particular country that you can blow up. I'm afraid it will be a gradually increasing death toll for the coalition forces for as long as they remain in the front line. It's like the germans fighting the USSR in WWII - they'd kill a thousand russians and there'd be another thousand running towards them over the next hill. My advice to the US - stick to securing your domestic security and find some other means of undermining the Islamic militants in the rest of the world.

PS I reckon they'll 'catch' Osama in the run-up to the next US general election: conveniently making the republican candidate more electable so the current administration can continue their shadowy policies.
I dunno' if that's a suitable call to make man (comparing terrorist factions to Russia). Casualties are far greater on the enemy's side than they are on the Coalition's.

Last edited by Xietsu (2006-06-11 17:34:35)

Nintendogamer
Member
+72|6827|Chelmsford, UK
i reckon Bin Ladden, is already dead, all the tapes that get sent out could be old recordings of him
ghettoperson
Member
+1,943|6889

If they do catch him, it would be better just to kill him and keep it secret. However, the Bush administration desperatly needs something to boast about, so the chances of that happening are slim.
BerkuT_gru
Member
+26|6886
Bush and Bin Laden families have been friends for a long time. There are BIG people in the USA that want Osama free. He's the big "terrorist" that Bush is pointing fingers at and scaring americans whit. They found Sadam in a huge country, where he had many supporters and they can't get Osama that is hiding in few caves around Afghanistan... Don't make me LOL
Spearhead
Gulf coast redneck hippy
+731|6930|Tampa Bay Florida
al-Qaeda is like an itch.  The harder you scatch it, the worse it will get
Horseman 77
Banned
+160|7077
Appeasement seems to be the Vogue response, why is this ?
Spearhead
Gulf coast redneck hippy
+731|6930|Tampa Bay Florida
Well, if I have an itch, I usually put cream on it.  Meaning, I don't completely ignore it, but I fight against the itch in another way, instead of with pure force.

Last edited by Spearhead (2006-06-11 15:02:36)

CameronPoe
Member
+2,925|6795

Spearhead wrote:

Well, if I have an itch, I usually put cream on it.  Meaning, I don't completely ignore it, but I fight against the itch in another way, instead of with pure force.
Exactly. To fight the cause rather the effect would be more effective in the long run. Americans rarely understand this. It's generally a case of 'Yeehaw we blew dem sons o' bitches inta next week. Wooo! USA! USA! USA!". Honest Question: Do ye hawks really think US military action against them will change them or make them stop? Get real.
lowing
Banned
+1,662|6891|USA

CameronPoe wrote:

Spearhead wrote:

Well, if I have an itch, I usually put cream on it.  Meaning, I don't completely ignore it, but I fight against the itch in another way, instead of with pure force.
Exactly. To fight the cause rather the effect would be more effective in the long run. Americans rarely understand this. It's generally a case of 'Yeehaw we blew dem sons o' bitches inta next week. Wooo! USA! USA! USA!". Honest Question: Do ye hawks really think US military action against them will change them or make them stop? Get real.
you watch too many movies.
GunSlinger OIF II
Banned.
+1,860|6884
paperwork
CameronPoe
Member
+2,925|6795

lowing wrote:

CameronPoe wrote:

Spearhead wrote:

Well, if I have an itch, I usually put cream on it.  Meaning, I don't completely ignore it, but I fight against the itch in another way, instead of with pure force.
Exactly. To fight the cause rather the effect would be more effective in the long run. Americans rarely understand this. It's generally a case of 'Yeehaw we blew dem sons o' bitches inta next week. Wooo! USA! USA! USA!". Honest Question: Do ye hawks really think US military action against them will change them or make them stop? Get real.
you watch too many movies.
I don't really get where you're coming from with that comment. I only need to listen to the kind of drivel that comes out of some the posters on this forum to come to my conclusion.
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|6915|Canberra, AUS
As I said before, bin Laden's role is a purely symbolic one, to fool us into believing that there is one or two guys in charge of the whole operation.

In reality, I believe, we are fighting a network. There is no centralised leadership, no command structure. They consist of individual 'cells' in a network. This means, I believe, we've been chasing a ghost. We should invest more in intel if we want to try and halt al-Qaeda.
The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
BVC
Member
+325|6935
The way I see it theres only two real options; capture or death.  Capture is the ultimate thing to crow about, the ultimate demoralising blow, but WILL result in more attacks/kidnappings.  Kill him and he'll become a martyr, but there won't be as many acts of revenge.

Unlikely options are largely variations of capture:
Capture & deport; There won't be much in the way of revenge at all, though there is always the risk that he won't be bought to justice when he is deported, it would depend on where he is sent.  If justice is done, the country that tries him WILL take a lot of flak!
Capture & convert; Osama Bin Laden, the southern Baptist Church's newest member!

Also, what if he commits suicide during his capture?
stryyker
bad touch
+1,682|6960|California

we will never catch him. ever.
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|6915|Canberra, AUS

stryyker wrote:

we will never catch him. ever.
Kind of my point, but oh well. Like it would do anything anyway - its like trying to kill Kazaa by arresting its creators.
The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman

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