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Larssen
Member
+98|1377
I would imagine control in London is more complicated than in Wellington. I'm not saying it can't happen, but SK would be a more comparable case study considering population density and movement of people.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-05-06 09:11:17)

uziq
Member
+491|2942

Larssen wrote:

I would imagine control in London is more complicated than in Wellington. I'm not saying it can't happen, but SK would be a more comparable case study considering population density and movement of people.
south korea have had 255 deaths from covid-19 during the entire pandemic. if you want to compare london to south korea, go ahead. but please stop making out NZ is some aberration in the data. it isn't.

https://i.imgur.com/ixOgNJb.png

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-06 09:12:48)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

uziq wrote:

yes but, you know jay, covid-19 isn't flu. it doesn't have a 'season', none that we have established, anyway. we do not know if it will be seasonal. even so, we can at least expect it to come back and resurge as much in the autumn/winter of this same year as it did in january/february. see what i mean when i point to problems with comparing it with flu?



multiple active strains of a virus are bad news, regardless. it means more vaccination work is required, and opens people up to reinfection.
Every virus has a season. There's a cold season too. These things tend to weaken when the weather turns warmer.

You keep talking like you're an expert, but you really know jack shit. Just stop.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+491|2942

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

yes but, you know jay, covid-19 isn't flu. it doesn't have a 'season', none that we have established, anyway. we do not know if it will be seasonal. even so, we can at least expect it to come back and resurge as much in the autumn/winter of this same year as it did in january/february. see what i mean when i point to problems with comparing it with flu?



multiple active strains of a virus are bad news, regardless. it means more vaccination work is required, and opens people up to reinfection.
Every virus has a season. There's a cold season too. These things tend to weaken when the weather turns warmer.

You keep talking like you're an expert, but you really know jack shit. Just stop.
no every virus does not have a season. does polio have a season?

every virus has a different profile, depending on its how it is transmitted. respiratory tract viruses are different from water-borne viruses which are different from mosquito-borne viruses. of course some track seasonally with the rise of, say, warmer waters, or moister air, or the rise of conditions that are conducive to mosquito populations.

once again, you are making a huge assumption when you assume that covid-19 and flu will have the exact same profile.

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-06 09:16:17)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

yes but, you know jay, covid-19 isn't flu. it doesn't have a 'season', none that we have established, anyway. we do not know if it will be seasonal. even so, we can at least expect it to come back and resurge as much in the autumn/winter of this same year as it did in january/february. see what i mean when i point to problems with comparing it with flu?



multiple active strains of a virus are bad news, regardless. it means more vaccination work is required, and opens people up to reinfection.
Every virus has a season. There's a cold season too. These things tend to weaken when the weather turns warmer.

You keep talking like you're an expert, but you really know jack shit. Just stop.
no every virus does not have a season. does polio have a season?
Is this polio now? Stop. Please, just stop.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+491|2942

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:


Every virus has a season. There's a cold season too. These things tend to weaken when the weather turns warmer.

You keep talking like you're an expert, but you really know jack shit. Just stop.
no every virus does not have a season. does polio have a season?
Is this polio now? Stop. Please, just stop.
is it flu?
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:


no every virus does not have a season. does polio have a season?
Is this polio now? Stop. Please, just stop.
is it flu?
It's an upper respiratory infection. Most people develop cold or flu-like symptoms, severe cases devolve into pneumonia. It's more similar to the flu than it is to any other virus you could name.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
coke
Aye up duck!
+440|6199|England. Stoke
Going back to 2010, according to the CDC the highest confirmed number of deaths from "normal flu" was 51,000. 2017-18 was estimated at 61k.
And whilst the last decade isn't the broadest set of data to be working with, I would say that 100,000 is actually very abnormal and the average of 50,000 is more like less than 40,000.

Last edited by coke (2020-05-06 09:21:51)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

coke wrote:

Going back to 2010, according to the CDC the highest confirmed number was 51,000. 2017-18 was estimated at 61k.
And whilst the last decade isn't the broadest set of data to be working with, I would say that 100,000 is actually very abnormal and the average of 50,000 is more like less than 40,000.
Some years are worse than others. 100,000 would indeed be a bad year, but they're not numbers that are outside of historical norms. We seem to get something this bad once a decade.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+491|2942

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

Is this polio now? Stop. Please, just stop.
is it flu?
It's an upper respiratory infection. Most people develop cold or flu-like symptoms, severe cases devolve into pneumonia. It's more similar to the flu than it is to any other virus you could name.
cases don't 'devolve' for a start, mr. expert.

similarity of human symptoms and immune reaction is NOT the same as similarity in viral structure, viral transmission, or viral hardiness. why does this need to be explained to you? jesus christ. do you have any idea what an enormous range of microbes stimulate an inflammatory response in the lungs?

we already know, for example, that covid-19 is hardy enough to remain on surfaces for hours, if not days. flu does not do that. without moisture in the air, it dies off quickly. covid-19? we don't know.

want to know how we have a good idea that covid-19 isn't as seasonal as flu, jay? because the hemispheres have different seasons. when it's winter in the north hemisphere, it's summer somewhere else! when one half of the world are battling off winter colds and flu, the other are sunning themselves on beaches without a sniffling nose among them. amazing, isn't it? covid-19 has gone global and cases are taking off in russia, brazil, australia, and sub-tropical SE asia. if it's a seasonal virus that is easily put off by increased sunlight and/or lower moisture, it sure isn't showing it.

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-06 09:26:36)

Larssen
Member
+98|1377

uziq wrote:

Larssen wrote:

I would imagine control in London is more complicated than in Wellington. I'm not saying it can't happen, but SK would be a more comparable case study considering population density and movement of people.
south korea have had 255 deaths from covid-19 during the entire pandemic. if you want to compare london to south korea, go ahead. but please stop making out NZ is some aberration in the data. it isn't.

I am not saying NZ is an abberation just that there's better case studies because of NZ's particular context. Which doesn't mean it's a positive comparison; all of western Europe did a terrible job next to SK, but that's a good opportunity for learning.

However, there's still much we don't understand about the spread. Just a few days ago we got the news france had its first case december 27th. And it wasn't a guy who had ever been in China, indicating the virus arrived 2 weeks earlier. Now that is remarkable as it even predates restrictions in places like HK. You'd expect HK to have been hit harder due to proximity if the spread was already well on its way.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-05-06 09:26:42)

uziq
Member
+491|2942
there is definitely a lot we don't know about covid-19. more than we do know.

but we do know it isn't 'just like flu'.
Larssen
Member
+98|1377
I have come to know Jay is of limited intellectual ability.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:


is it flu?
It's an upper respiratory infection. Most people develop cold or flu-like symptoms, severe cases devolve into pneumonia. It's more similar to the flu than it is to any other virus you could name.
cases don't 'devolve' for a start, mr. expert.

similarity of human symptoms and immune reaction is NOT the same as similarity in viral structure, viral transmission, or viral hardiness. why does this need to be explained to you? jesus christ. do you have any idea what an enormous range of microbes stimulate an inflammatory response in the lungs?

we already know, for example, that covid-19 is hardy enough to remain on surfaces for hours, if not days. flu does not do that. without moisture in the air, it dies off quickly. covid-19? we don't know.

want to know how we have a good idea that covid-19 isn't as seasonal as flu, jay? because the hemispheres have different seasons. when it's winter in the north hemisphere, it's summer somewhere else! amazing, isn't it? covid-19 has gone global and case are taking off in russia, brazil, and sub-tropical SE asia. if it's a seasonal virus that is easily put off by increased sunlight and/or lower moisture, it sure isn't showing it.
I guess time will tell, eh?

I don't really understand why you fetishize end of days scenarios. I really wouldn't be surprised if you ended up joining a cult.

This is a rather normal, albeit more severe, form of seasonal virus, the type that humanity has been dealing with since the beginning of time. This one happened to land smack dab in the middle of the peak of social media and has received wall-to-wall media coverage.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
coke
Aye up duck!
+440|6199|England. Stoke

Jay wrote:

coke wrote:

Going back to 2010, according to the CDC the highest confirmed number was 51,000. 2017-18 was estimated at 61k.
And whilst the last decade isn't the broadest set of data to be working with, I would say that 100,000 is actually very abnormal and the average of 50,000 is more like less than 40,000.
Some years are worse than others. 100,000 would indeed be a bad year, but they're not numbers that are outside of historical norms. We seem to get something this bad once a decade.
Well as I said it massively outside the norm for the past decade...
I'd like to see when 100,000 deaths was part of the norm?
Larssen
Member
+98|1377
Jay in an average flu year there's 50,000 dead. In a year.

Now you have 70k in a month.

A month.

Do math, you.
uziq
Member
+491|2942
here we go again. 'you're panicking'. 'fetishizing end of days' scenario. FFS.

no jay, no i'm not. i'm pointing out some simple data for you, which you have trouble accepting.

it's not 'rather normal'. nope. no single expert anywhere is saying this is normal.

seasonal: again, we don't know. if it's seasonal, it's not to the degree that flu is seasonal. sorry, wishful thinking on your part.

'humanity has been dealing with this since the dawn of time'. great justification for taking no action. one would almost say it's a more religious and resigned position than 'end of days alarmism'. why not just say 'god's will be done' and sign off with an amen?
Larssen
Member
+98|1377
We survived the black death we'll survive coronavirus!
coke
Aye up duck!
+440|6199|England. Stoke
"100,000 not abnormal"
"50k average"
"ah well it would be bad, but not outside historical norms"

Been only just over 50,000 deaths once in the past decade...
Larssen
Member
+98|1377
I'm waiting for another fit of uncontrolled rage. All those excess calories he consumes are both melting his brain and building up an explosion.
uziq
Member
+491|2942

Larssen wrote:

We survived the black death we'll survive coronavirus!
we shouldn't try to do anything about malaria. mankind has been dying in droves every year from it since the beginning of time.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

Larssen wrote:

I have come to know Jay is of limited intellectual ability.
Because I disagree with you? Because I belittle you for your beliefs? Because you come across as a soft bureaucrat with little real world experience? You came here writing long diatribes that were mildly interesting only because they tended to make uzi pause, and that was amusing.

You don't understand the backstory on this forum. You didn't see uzi preening like a peacock and shitting on everyone for half a decade, or his cult of personality that would suck up to him to avoid his vicious tongue lashings when he gave them a pat on the head. You see me shitting on him all day, and being mean to him, well, if you knew the history here, you'd see that he deserves every last insult for all the millions of insults and the shitty way he has treated literally everyone here. We devolve into personal insults here because of him, because every time he feels like he's lost he launches some attack on a person's character or shits on their life. He's not a smart person, although I will give him his due that he writes moderately well.

He's not your friend or your ally here. He is just a relentless sad sack with too much time that invariably lies about his personal life to make him seem more interesting than he is. He is an internet troll, nothing more.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+491|2942
i flamed people, i can take a flaming. i don't know why you cast yourself in the role of 'divine retributor' when you threaten to kick my ass. it makes you look like an utter idiot.

those discussions were also a whole lot of shooting the shit and amusement over games. we are discussing covid-19 here now, discussing facts and real-world events. how is the history of bf2s even relevant? why would larssen, or anyone else, even give the faintest care?

you make some very bizarre posts.
coke
Aye up duck!
+440|6199|England. Stoke
Well I found a chart from a paper published by the American Journal of Public Health, and it goes to 1976, and the y axis for number of deaths only goes up to 50,000, but apparently that's the average and 100,000 is within the norms.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

uziq wrote:

i flamed people, i can take a flaming. i don't know why you cast yourself in the role of 'divine retributor' when you threaten to kick my ass. it makes you look like an utter idiot.

those discussions were also a whole lot of shooting the shit and amusement over games. we are discussing covid-19 here now, discussing facts and real-world events. how is the history of bf2s even relevant? why would larssen, or anyone else, even give the faintest care?

you make some very bizarre posts.
You cowed larssen by writing one post about how he's from provincial Belgium and thus a racist and small minded and you won. He hasn't bothered you since because you managed to get under his skin and found the one thing that actually threatened his self image. You try to do this to everyone. It's why you had so many sycophants back in the day.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat

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