The tide is turning

2009-09-14 16:07:07

#1

ATG: Banned; +5,233|6816|Global Command

I have customers in 38 states and my local small business.

The concensus is that there has been a shift and that things are getting better. Peronally I am seeing some single day sales being better than entire weeks over the summer.

What have we learned and are you seeing it too?

2009-09-14 16:35:15

#2

CameronPoe: Member; +2,925|6843

The bank bailout is working?

2009-09-14 16:50:08

#3

Sydney: 2λчиэλ; +783|7131|Reykjavík, Iceland.

Everything is still getting more fucked here by every day that goes by, our currency is dying.

2009-09-14 16:51:14

#4

jsnipy: ...; +3,277|6810|...

they should have just said "things are back to normal" on the news 6 months ago

2009-09-14 16:57:21

#5

AussieReaper: ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°); +5,761|6440|what

Consumer confidence is up.

2009-09-14 17:09:29

#6

Doctor Strangelove: Real Battlefield Veterinarian.; +1,758|6755

Obama's stimulus.

2009-09-14 17:21:07

#7

KEN-JENNINGS: I am all that is MOD!; +2,982|6919|949

AussieReaper wrote:
Consumer confidence is up.

I think it's that investor confidence is up. Investors seem to be more inclined to throw their money out there.

2009-09-14 18:49:32

#8

Jay: Bork! Bork! Bork!; +2,006|5645|London, England

KEN-JENNINGS wrote:
AussieReaper wrote:
Consumer confidence is up.
I think it's that investor confidence is up. Investors seem to be more inclined to throw their money out there.

The NYSE is nearing 10k so yep, they have more money to throw around now.

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat

2009-09-14 21:17:46

#9

Harmor: Error_Name_Not_Found; +605|6836|San Diego, CA, USA

I'm worried that we may see a double dip recession as interest rates go up. I want Obama to succeed with the economy, so don't think I'm hatin' because he's a Democrat, its just his policies like increasing income taxes by 3% next year isn't going to exactly help...

2009-09-15 00:33:37

#10

Diesel_dyk: Object in mirror will feel larger than it appears; +178|6282|Truthistan

I noticed over the past week and a half that there has been a break between the sinking dollar and the attempted run up on commodities like oil. For the past couple of months the dollar and staple commodities were moving together with speculators trying to run oil back up to $100. That seems to have stopped and they are now going after gold which is fine because the ordinary person doesn't eat gold or put it in their car. The speculators can make a gold bubble just like they did with high tech and dot.coms and no one will get hurt by them speculating on that. But if they screw with oil and other staples they will crash the economy.

My guess is that things are getting better because the market is returning to some level of sanity and the shock from the rise in prices over the past few months has settled in. People are becoming more confident because consumer prices are settling and they not shelling out ridiculous amounts of money for staples and gasoline and future prices seem to be stablising so that means that we are less likely to get more surprises. That means consumers can now guage their expenses and feel confident about spending money on other things.

But, if speculators return to oil and other commodities necessary to build and make things or that would cause a rise in the price of staple goods then we will get a double dip. In the mean time enjoy the respite until the weak dollar policy of the Fed/treasury starts to seriously impact the economy or until we get into a trade war with China.

2009-09-15 01:41:20

#11

Spark: liquid fluoride thorium reactor; +874|6962|Canberra, AUS

Harmor wrote:
I'm worried that we may see a double dip recession as interest rates go up. I want Obama to succeed with the economy, so don't think I'm hatin' because he's a Democrat, its just his policies like increasing income taxes by 3% next year isn't going to exactly help...

I'm faaaaaairly sure that he's well aware that raising taxes can have negative effects on a growing economy. And he's equally sure that policies that will increase inflation won't be so great either (although interest rates will have to go back up eventually, I think there's NO official cash rate right now)

However, the cataclysmic changes and culture-shock that many were predicting exactly one year ago hasn't and won't happen. Maybe a bit more scrutiny and regulation but really business as usual. A good thing...?

The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
^{~ Richard Feynman}

2009-09-15 02:10:23

#12

Varegg: Support fanatic :-); +2,206|7097|Nårvei

To bad Obama still have not effectively stopped the financial functions that caused this mess in the first place, proper regulations is needed ...

I agree the tide is turning but it's a tad early to call off the crisis, to much can still go terribly wrong ...

Wait behind the line ..............................................................

2009-09-15 10:07:06

#13

GATOR591957: Member; +84|6914

Just hold on, do the words inflation and stagflation ring a bell.

2009-09-15 10:10:06

#14

(T)eflon(S)hadow: R.I.P. Neda; +456|7116|Grapevine, TX

Srs: we will have another major stock market fall. It will be a big drop , too. Im still holding on to my ass.

2009-09-15 10:34:07

#15

Varegg: Support fanatic :-); +2,206|7097|Nårvei

GATOR591957 wrote:
Just hold on, do the words inflation and stagflation ring a bell.

Please elaborate to what degree any or both of them would apply to the current crisis ...

Wait behind the line ..............................................................

2009-09-15 10:39:25

#16

ghettoperson: Member; +1,943|6936

Varegg wrote:
GATOR591957 wrote:
Just hold on, do the words inflation and stagflation ring a bell.
Please elaborate to what degree any or both of them would apply to the current crisis ...

Be nice, he's clearly just started 8th grade economics and wants to show off some irrelevant terms.

2009-09-15 11:03:55

#17

GATOR591957: Member; +84|6914

Considering you need an explanation, you may want to rethink who's economic prowess needs the most attention.

Inflation is when everything gets more valuable except money.

Stagflation in when a combination of economic inflation and industrial recession, during which consumer prices rise but business output falls. Most often accompanied by rising unemployment by businesses cut backs. A good example of stagflation was in the 70s, when rapidly-rising oil prices pushed consumer prices up sharply but caused businesses to cut back production. Does this sound familiar?

They apply to the current situation by the amount of spending, or should I say borrowing we are currently consumed with. Inflation, then hyper inflation, soon to be followed by stagnation.

Sorry, I keep forgetting this is a world wide thread, so some of the off shore folks may not be as familiar with American economics as others.

Last edited by GATOR591957 (2009-09-15 15:38:57)

2009-09-15 19:02:21

#18

Bevo: Nah; +718|6808|Austin, Texas

If all the media sources say the economy is on the rise, then it will be...

_{do away with subprime mortgages}

2009-09-15 21:07:11

#19

Turquoise: O Canada; +1,596|6692|North Carolina

ghettoperson wrote:
Varegg wrote:
GATOR591957 wrote:
Just hold on, do the words inflation and stagflation ring a bell.
Please elaborate to what degree any or both of them would apply to the current crisis ...
Be nice, he's clearly just started 8th grade economics and wants to show off some irrelevant terms.

Both of those concepts are relevant, because the money supply was unwisely increased to an extreme extent via bailouts and such.

If history is any indication, we will be experiencing some pretty high inflation soon.

2009-09-16 00:32:25

#20

Varegg: Support fanatic :-); +2,206|7097|Nårvei

Turquoise wrote:
ghettoperson wrote:
Varegg wrote:

Please elaborate to what degree any or both of them would apply to the current crisis ...
Be nice, he's clearly just started 8th grade economics and wants to show off some irrelevant terms.
Both of those concepts are relevant, because the money supply was unwisely increased to an extreme extent via bailouts and such.

If history is any indication, we will be experiencing some pretty high inflation soon.

We don't have any relevant history to match the exact situation we are in now, never before have such extreme measures been used to counter a financial crisis ... honestly we have no idea how the outcome will be, we have indications and the good thing is if what we are doing now helps we can very well reduce the damage of the next one before it actually takes effect ...

History does show however that we seldom learn from experience so my assumption may be wrong

Wait behind the line ..............................................................

2009-09-16 05:28:08

#21

FEOS: Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate; +1,182|6698|'Murka

Turquoise wrote:
ghettoperson wrote:
Varegg wrote:

Please elaborate to what degree any or both of them would apply to the current crisis ...
Be nice, he's clearly just started 8th grade economics and wants to show off some irrelevant terms.
Both of those concepts are relevant, because the money supply was unwisely increased to an extreme extent via bailouts and such.

If history is any indication, we will be experiencing some pretty high inflation soon.

Keep in mind that the money appropriated for the bailouts has been largely unspent, meaning that the increase in money supply is not as large as appropriations would have you believe. So it may not be quite as bad as all that.

“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein
Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular

2009-09-16 05:46:43

#22

Varegg: Support fanatic :-); +2,206|7097|Nårvei

FEOS wrote:
Turquoise wrote:
ghettoperson wrote:

Be nice, he's clearly just started 8th grade economics and wants to show off some irrelevant terms.
Both of those concepts are relevant, because the money supply was unwisely increased to an extreme extent via bailouts and such.

If history is any indication, we will be experiencing some pretty high inflation soon.
Keep in mind that the money appropriated for the bailouts has been largely unspent, meaning that the increase in money supply is not as large as appropriations would have you believe. So it may not be quite as bad as all that.

As a reference we have the same in Norway, a large bailout not appropriated ... but still the very thought of a large bailout can contribute stabilizing the nervous brain of financial workers

Wait behind the line ..............................................................

BF2S Forums The tide is turning

AussieReaper wrote:

KEN-JENNINGS wrote:

AussieReaper wrote:

Harmor wrote:

GATOR591957 wrote:

Varegg wrote:

GATOR591957 wrote:

ghettoperson wrote:

Varegg wrote:

GATOR591957 wrote:

Turquoise wrote:

ghettoperson wrote:

Varegg wrote:

Turquoise wrote:

ghettoperson wrote:

Varegg wrote:

FEOS wrote:

Turquoise wrote:

ghettoperson wrote:

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