Anyone else think the worst of the economic crisis is over?

2009-01-04 14:14:11

#1

ELITE-UK: Scratching my back; +170|6778|SHEFFIELD, ENGLAND

For the past month or so we have seen stability in the global stock markets, and infact some are making gains.

I think now that the amount of jobs shed each month is just a re adjustment of the changing climate, and i think it will be stable by the 2nd Quarter of this year.
And by the end of the year the economy will be picking up.

What are your thoughts?

2009-01-04 14:17:02

#2

M.O.A.B: 'Light 'em up!'; +1,220|6527|Escea

To be honest, not a scrap of this has affected any aspect of my life, which is weird but I'll see how it pans out.

2009-01-04 14:20:39

#3

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6905|132 and Bush

The worst? Yes. Is it anywhere near a recovery? No way.

Remember it will take a couple of quarters to see the reflection of current conditions. Indicators have lag.

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2009-01-04 14:30:31

#4

CameronPoe: Member; +2,925|6859

I don't think the worst has yet arrived. This January will be close to the worst. This is when we see all the intangible shennanigans going on over our heads becoming tangible in the form of mass multinational layoffs. This in turn will lead to one/zero income families attempting to pay mortgages and in turn to more foreclosures. The worst has not arrived I'm afraid.

2009-01-04 14:36:07

#5

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6905|132 and Bush

We are all looking at this threw our own goggles. The housing market where I live is certainly stabilizing. That is what affects me most.

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2009-01-04 14:48:35

#6

Bell: Frosties > Cornflakes; +362|6853|UK

I still havent seen anything of the banks increasing lending. Infact I was reading in the british press about an alleged second round of bail outs.

2009-01-04 14:51:33

#7

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6905|132 and Bush

Bell wrote:
I still havent seen anything of the banks increasing lending. Infact I was reading in the british press about an alleged second round of bail outs.

Well to be fair.. at least here. They might just be paying more attention to who they are giving money to. Doing credit reports, employment history, and background checks.. underwriting yada yada. Rather than just spitting it all back out without checking this time.

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2009-01-04 14:51:59

#8

Uzique: dasein.; +2,865|6774

Worst of the economic crisis?

Wait til Obama is behind the wheel. Mr.Change. Mr.Experience.

\
\
\ /\
\/ \
\________

Last edited by Uzique (2009-01-04 14:54:12)

_{libertarian benefit collector - anti-academic super-intellectual}. _{http://mixlr.com/the-little-phrase/}

2009-01-04 14:56:57

#9

m3thod: All kiiiiiiiiinds of gainz; +2,197|6975|UK

M.O.A.B wrote:
To be honest, not a scrap of this has affected any aspect of my life, which is weird but I'll see how it pans out.

Dude, you're 18, a student and prob still live at home.

It's carnage out there. I've seen people storm out of my office because they've been made redundant.

Blackbelts are just whitebelts who have never quit.

2009-01-04 14:58:57

#10

Uzique: dasein.; +2,865|6774

m3thod wrote:
M.O.A.B wrote:
To be honest, not a scrap of this has affected any aspect of my life, which is weird but I'll see how it pans out.
Dude, you're 18, a student and prob still live at home.

It's carnage out there. I've seen people storm out of my office because they've been made redundant.

They give the cleaners at Canary Wharf an office? Or is that corporate lingo for a supplies cupboard?

_{libertarian benefit collector - anti-academic super-intellectual}. _{http://mixlr.com/the-little-phrase/}

2009-01-04 14:59:21

#11

m3thod: All kiiiiiiiiinds of gainz; +2,197|6975|UK

Bell wrote:
I still havent seen anything of the banks increasing lending. Infact I was reading in the british press about an alleged second round of bail outs.

The British banks have been using the money to shore up their balance sheets rather than provide more liquidity in the market....like it was intended.

The US banks have been sending out their employees to parties and providing bonuses up to an average 50K per person if you're GS.

Blackbelts are just whitebelts who have never quit.

2009-01-04 15:01:18

#12

m3thod: All kiiiiiiiiinds of gainz; +2,197|6975|UK

Uzique wrote:
m3thod wrote:
M.O.A.B wrote:
To be honest, not a scrap of this has affected any aspect of my life, which is weird but I'll see how it pans out.
Dude, you're 18, a student and prob still live at home.

It's carnage out there. I've seen people storm out of my office because they've been made redundant.
They give the cleaners at Canary Wharf an office? Or is that corporate lingo for a supplies cupboard?

Most of the ones cut have been senior members of staff, principal advisors etc.

Blackbelts are just whitebelts who have never quit.

2009-01-04 15:04:45

#13

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6905|132 and Bush

m3thod wrote:
Bell wrote:
I still havent seen anything of the banks increasing lending. Infact I was reading in the british press about an alleged second round of bail outs.
The British banks have been using the money to shore up their balance sheets rather than provide more liquidity in the market....like it was intended.

The US banks have been sending out their employees to parties and providing bonuses up to an average 50K per person if you're GS.

Cant argue that..lol.

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2009-01-04 15:11:48

#14

SealXo: Member; +309|6840

wait till new reports come out from the holidays

wait until we dump so much money on a stimulus that the dollars global purchasing power is gone.

Last edited by SealXo (2009-01-04 15:12:43)

2009-01-04 15:18:45

#15

ghettoperson: Member; +1,943|6953

Let's hope it is. It hasn't affected me or my family yet, although my Dad is sad as the annual GE party in Orlando has been cancelled.

2009-01-04 15:47:06

#16

ATG: Banned; +5,233|6833|Global Command

While I'd like to think you are right, I don't.
Remember Katrina?
Imagine that scenario played out in a thousand cities. Imagine government ran food centers and a perpetual riot.
The retail fourth quarter reports come out tomorrow and massive layoffs will follow.
The bottom will be hit when the stock market is at about 2500, unemployement is at 35 percent, and million are newly homeless.

Sorry, that's how I see it.

2009-01-04 15:57:02

#17

Dilbert_X: The X stands for; +1,817|6410|eXtreme to the maX

Frankly no.
All the companies I am in contact with are poised to cut staff big-time. It takes a while for the effects of mass unemployment to trickle through the economy.
The US big three bailout hasn't really kicked in, when they've drawn breath, realised they can still cut 1/3rd of their workforce and still be in loss then we'll see some serious trouble.
Everyone is shit scared of spending money, car sales have collapsed, home sales are stalled, big ticket items aren't being bought, takes a while for this to flow through also.
Mortgage brokers I know of here, who work 100% on commission, are floating belly up.

This isn't a dead cat bounce, kitty hit a balcony rail on the tenth floor and has a way to go yet.

But I'm a terrible pessimist, so who knows.

Fuck Israel

2009-01-04 16:10:25

#18

deeznutz1245: Connecticut: our chimps are stealin yo' faces.; +483|6797|Connecticut

no

Malloy must go

2009-01-04 16:11:42

#19

ELITE-UK: Scratching my back; +170|6778|SHEFFIELD, ENGLAND

Dilbert_X wrote:
Frankly no.
All the companies I am in contact with are poised to cut staff big-time. It takes a while for the effects of mass unemployment to trickle through the economy.
The US big three bailout hasn't really kicked in, when they've drawn breath, realised they can still cut 1/3rd of their workforce and still be in loss then we'll see some serious trouble.
Everyone is shit scared of spending money, car sales have collapsed, home sales are stalled, big ticket items aren't being bought, takes a while for this to flow through also.
Mortgage brokers I know of here, who work 100% on commission, are floating belly up.

This isn't a dead cat bounce, kitty hit a balcony rail on the tenth floor and has a way to go yet.

But I'm a terrible pessimist, so who knows.

I see what your saying, but by the end of 2009 recovery will be under way

2009-01-04 16:19:59

#20

Sydney: 2λчиэλ; +783|7147|Reykjavík, Iceland.

Iceland is still fucked, and it's getting worse

2009-01-04 16:22:39

#21

Bell: Frosties > Cornflakes; +362|6853|UK

Sydney wrote:
Iceland is still fucked, and it's getting worse

Whats happening there right now anyway? It got a lot of press when the whole collapse happened, but, I havent seen all that much since then.

2009-01-04 16:31:15

#22

Zimmer: Un Moderador; +1,688|7060|Scotland

Bell wrote:
Sydney wrote:
Iceland is still fucked, and it's getting worse
Whats happening there right now anyway? It got a lot of press when the whole collapse happened, but, I havent seen all that much since then.

Because they have been holding the reporters at ransom to get some money.

Nah, it's not over. Nowhere near.

2009-01-04 16:56:42

#23

Dilbert_X: The X stands for; +1,817|6410|eXtreme to the maX

Elite-UK wrote:
I see what your saying, but by the end of 2009 recovery will be under way

Suspect you're right, by end of 2009 (not now) we may have hit the bottom of the trough.
Could be a long climb out, peak oil isn't going to help.

Fuck Israel

2009-01-04 22:54:37

#24

ATG: Banned; +5,233|6833|Global Command

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/04/ … s/real.php

Clearly the banks need more billions to function.
clear lee.

2009-01-05 14:27:55

#25

BVC: Member; +325|6999

We haven't seen much of it here TBH, and the general opinion is that we won't get it as bad as the rest of the world. Unemployment is around 5%, there have been some layoffs but not on the same scale as overseas - but then a higher-than-average proportion of our exports are necessities (food and other consumables) as opposed to luxuries.

A lot of expats losing their jobs overseas and coming home though. What effect (if any) that has on the country remains to be seen.

BF2S Forums Anyone else think the worst of the economic crisis is over?

Bell wrote:

M.O.A.B wrote:

m3thod wrote:

M.O.A.B wrote:

Bell wrote:

Uzique wrote:

m3thod wrote:

M.O.A.B wrote:

m3thod wrote:

Bell wrote:

Dilbert_X wrote:

Sydney wrote:

Bell wrote:

Sydney wrote:

Elite-UK wrote:

Board footer