Tell us something we don't know about China.
However, I feel those estimates for 2050 are a bit conservative. America is becoming weaker all the time - it's the same sort of conditions now as the Wall Street Crash. It's not solely the growing strength of the Chinese economy, but the weakening/slow growth of the 'old power economies' (USA, Britain, Western Europe, Japan) that is causing China to have a growing influence.
Bear in mind that by 2050 about 50% (I believe that's right - I'm trying to remember something from about a year ago) of the Japanese population will be retired - no country with about 30% of the population working can support that vast amount of pensioners & children. By that time, I believe that the American economy will have collapsed to some extent (more likely greater rather than lesser) & Europe will probably still be on it's eternal slight increase.
Over the following few decades the world economic conditions will be perfect for a new power economy to emerge - and China is superbly placed to take advantage of these conditions.
And don't be so scared of Socialism (as others have said, they aren't Socialist - more a mongrel breed of different political ideals) - even China doesn't truly know what it is in terms of politics. China's in a permanent relative state of flux in terms of government, and this is not necessarily a bad thing.
Another thing to think about is that if the rest of the world becomes crippled, so will China. In their current state, China relies of trade to foreign countries and if America becomes crippled then they will lose a large market to sell to. This would in turn destroy China. If China were to become the/a dominant power economy then it would have to adapt itself completely - and very
quick. If they don't, they'd have an extremely short lived dominance and would implode upon their growth.
Russia are a dark horse to be watching for with their fuel industries - they may well
will use this as leverage to gain a lot of strength as America wanes. Britain and Europe won't be able to do anything - and indeed, just wouldn't even if they could. But watch out for potential revolution and a bloody battle for power between Oligarchs coming to the forefront of Russia.
In summary - there really isn't a great outlook for this. I really have just recited this off the top of my head on what I thought about for a speech a year ago. If anyone wants to take any of this forward - be my guest!
All the best,
Last edited by TheDarkRaven (2007-08-06 04:18:03)