EVieira wrote:
Thats the same argument saying the if everyone had guns, crime would down. Maye it would, but gun shot kills would rise. If most countries had nukes, it would only be a question of time when in one of those countries came to power some crazy fanatical fuck with the guts (or stupidity) to use a couple. And I'm not ruling out any of the current nuclear powers as the place where such leader could appear.
The flow of logic is this actually.
There are 2 types of Nuclear weapons
Counterforce: Designed to destroy enemy nuclear weapons and infrastructure. Bunker Buster Nukes fall under this category. Basically, these are first strike weapons.
Countervalue: Designed to destroy population. These the city wipers. They are designed to kill people, plain and simple. They are a retaliatory weapon.
The theory is that the more counterforce weaponry in the system, the more unstable the system, where as the more countervalue, the more stable the system.
Basically, the logic is that counterforce acts to provoke. Production of a counterforce weapon is considered to be a country acting to antagonize other states. (I know this is not a nuclear weapon, but ABM's are considered counterforce and are destabilizing as well). Whereas Countervalue weapons are more like a shield. If a nations possesses Countervalue weapons, you cannot attack that nation, for fear of Massive Retaliation. To attack would be suicide. Ergo, 2 nations that are nuclear enabled with Countervalue nukes become negated, neither can nuke the other without fear of retaliation and destruction (MAD). Part of MAD is the principle of Massive Retaliation. However, in the sense that I am using it, it is more classical, in that the state we retaliate against does not have the means to destroy us.
However, Iraq and North Korea are in my humble opinion 2 very different matters when it come to nuclear weaponry. Kim Jhong Il is not a stupid man. He knows that if he were to use a nuclear weapon, it would be the end of him and his country. He is not willing to sacrifice that. However, he does know that with nuclear weaponry, North Korea will have much more sway in dealings in the international community
Whereas, Mr. "Wipe Israel Of the Map" may actually decide to use nuclear weapons if he gets them, or funnel them to groups that will. Then the question becomes "How will the US respond" and "How will the world respond?" Once a state uses a nuclear weapon, it becomes harder to stop. The only reason the US did was we at the time held the monopoly. If Iran develops 1 nuclear weapon, that is fine. The goal then becomes destroying them before they can produce 2 or more.