http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem
It's a lengthy read but it's very interesting. Proved me wrong.
It's a lengthy read but it's very interesting. Proved me wrong.
Last edited by {XpLiCiTxX} (2007-01-21 16:33:23)
How did you change the title?
Edit?SnobbyBoss wrote:
How did you change the title?
/obvious response.
Yeah this problem rocks. Always change...
Did this at A level statistics and in my APS course atm.
Did this at A level statistics and in my APS course atm.
that makes sense.
You can edit that? never knew that. Sorry for stupid question.{XpLiCiTxX} wrote:
Edit?SnobbyBoss wrote:
How did you change the title?
/obvious response.
Everyone has those moments. Not a stupid question. I'm just a smartass. :-)SnobbyBoss wrote:
You can edit that? never knew that. Sorry for stupid question.{XpLiCiTxX} wrote:
Edit?SnobbyBoss wrote:
How did you change the title?
/obvious response.
Honestly, I was completely dumbfounded when I read the reasoning behind it. I thought it was based on assumptions only. What really blew my mind was that formula for it. Try remembering that.Vilham wrote:
Yeah this problem rocks. Always change...
Did this at A level statistics and in my APS course atm.
Last edited by {XpLiCiTxX} (2007-01-21 16:40:47)
This is wrong. There are four possibilities, each with probability 1/4:wikipedea wrote:
When the player is asked whether to switch, there are three possible situations corresponding to the player's initial choice, each with probability ⅓:
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 1. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 2. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host has shown either of the two goats.
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 1. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 2. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host has shown goat number 1.
The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host has shown goat number 2.
Yeah, either that or it doesn't matter which goat the host shows as long as it's a goat and not the car. I see what you mean though. It doesn't matter whether or not it's goat 1 or goat 2.cospengle wrote:
This is wrong. There are four possibilities, each with probability 1/4:wikipedea wrote:
When the player is asked whether to switch, there are three possible situations corresponding to the player's initial choice, each with probability ⅓:
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 1. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 2. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host has shown either of the two goats.
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 1. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 2. The game host has shown the other goat.
The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host has shown goat number 1.
The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host has shown goat number 2.
dude you entirely missed the point. it wasn't about the possibilities. it was about how the probability increases. it doesn't matter WHICH goat you pick. it matters that you ultimately do not, in fact, pick a goat. unless the car is a Kia. in which case keep the goat.
lol. Kia caprice.
I'm not saying it matter which goat you pick, I'm saying that the Wiki solution only says there are 3 options with equal probability, but there are actually 4 (or 2 if you say to goats are the same). So there is no change in the probability.
I'm not saying it matter which goat you pick, I'm saying that the Wiki solution only says there are 3 options with equal probability, but there are actually 4 (or 2 if you say to goats are the same). So there is no change in the probability.
Or Hyundai. :-)G3|Genius wrote:
dude you entirely missed the point. it wasn't about the possibilities. it was about how the probability increases. it doesn't matter WHICH goat you pick. it matters that you ultimately do not, in fact, pick a goat. unless the car is a Kia. in which case keep the goat.
It all comes down to the fact that Monty will NEVER pick the door with the car behind it, therefore causing a change to the probabilities.
Right, because if he did choose the car then you would win and not have to do any work. The whole reasoning behind this equation is that by switching your answer based on what the host does, you will win 2/3's of the time.Vilham wrote:
It all comes down to the fact that Monty will NEVER pick the door with the car behind it, therefore causing a change to the probabilities.
I don't get it. I read through about a quarter of that article and am puzzled still. Damned hypothetical scenarios!
No you won't. The probability of winning is 1/2, even before he opens a door.{XpLiCiTxX} wrote:
Right, because if he did choose the car then you would win and not have to do any work. The whole reasoning behind this equation is that by switching your answer based on what the host does, you will win 2/3's of the time.Vilham wrote:
It all comes down to the fact that Monty will NEVER pick the door with the car behind it, therefore causing a change to the probabilities.
Yeah, I was thinking 1/2 as well because 1 of the doors gets eliminated as soon as he opens one. Which leaves two doors to choose from... you pick one or the other and thats 1 out of 2 therefore 1/2. No? Ahhh it's confusing!
If you realy want I can draw a table out that shows how it works.
You are right. 3 doors = 1/3 chance. 2 doors = 1/2 chance. It's not that hard. I think that that "wiki" is just talking in circles... (Whoever made that wiki should become a politician.)nonexistentusmc wrote:
Yeah, I was thinking 1/2 as well because 1 of the doors gets eliminated as soon as he opens one. Which leaves two doors to choose from... you pick one or the other and thats 1 out of 2 therefore 1/2. No? Ahhh it's confusing!
That's exactly what everyone else, including myself thought before reading it.nonexistentusmc wrote:
Yeah, I was thinking 1/2 as well because 1 of the doors gets eliminated as soon as he opens one. Which leaves two doors to choose from... you pick one or the other and thats 1 out of 2 therefore 1/2. No? Ahhh it's confusing!
That'd be good.Vilham wrote:
If you realy want I can draw a table out that shows how it works.
I say it's 1/2 due to the fact that the first door chosen will eliminate a goat no matter what. Your then left with 2 doors to choose from. I understand what it's saying, but in this case the first choice doesn't matter.
Just so you know it is 2/3. FACT Ill do the table tomorrow in paint if i can find my lecture notes on it.
gooooo intro level probabilities course!!
look mommy i can add fractions
look mommy i can add fractions