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SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+607|3209

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

Anyway, we got a variance, and my job is reopening on Monday. Now that I don't have to worry about losing my job due to a long term shutdown, I can look back fondly on quarantine as an extended paid vacation. The downside is that I now have to try to finish this deck by Sunday...
Do you have to go back to the office?
Yeah, but I'm not sure if we'll be going back to every-other-day or what. I told my boss I need to ease back in because my kids' school doesn't reopen until June 1st and my wife can't watch the kids by herself and work at the same time.
NJ cancelled school. Do you want to hire me to watch your kids?
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Some of those militia guys need to off some people in public soon. It has been the only interesting storyline in the last half a dozen episodes and I am afraid it won't pay off like the rest of the season.
They talk a good game, but they never back it up. Dying for a cause is a young adult's game. Once you hit middle age you have too many people depending on you to get shot by a cop.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:


Do you have to go back to the office?
Yeah, but I'm not sure if we'll be going back to every-other-day or what. I told my boss I need to ease back in because my kids' school doesn't reopen until June 1st and my wife can't watch the kids by herself and work at the same time.
NJ cancelled school. Do you want to hire me to watch your kids?
I have a strict no-catholics policy when it comes to child care.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+491|2942

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Some of those militia guys need to off some people in public soon. It has been the only interesting storyline in the last half a dozen episodes and I am afraid it won't pay off like the rest of the season.
there's going to be plenty of time for anger and rage. covid-2020 is only just getting started.

you can tell a real fatigue has set in at the white house already. they just want to be rid of it. unfortunately they're only making the hard work of getting past it that much harder, and more drawn out.

imagine being in portugal right now. they are going to have a regular summer, almost care-free.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+607|3209

uziq wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Some of those militia guys need to off some people in public soon. It has been the only interesting storyline in the last half a dozen episodes and I am afraid it won't pay off like the rest of the season.
there's going to be plenty of time for anger and rage. covid-2020 is only just getting started.

you can tell a real fatigue has set in at the white house already. they just want to be rid of it. unfortunately they're only making the hard work of getting past it that much harder, and more drawn out.

imagine being in portugal right now. they are going to have a regular summer, almost care-free.
Trump is actually shutting down the COVID taskforce that Pence was running soon. He talked privately about just letting the virus "wash over" the country and get it over with. I think the mass protest convinced him to just let the virus do its thing since he figures his base of support won't abandon him.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Larssen
Member
+98|1377
Good thing for you guys the president can't decide over state policies.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+607|3209

Larssen wrote:

Good thing for you guys the president can't decide over state policies.
He can deny them resources and aid if they don't cooperate with the reopening agenda.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+491|2942

SuperJail Warden wrote:

uziq wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Some of those militia guys need to off some people in public soon. It has been the only interesting storyline in the last half a dozen episodes and I am afraid it won't pay off like the rest of the season.
there's going to be plenty of time for anger and rage. covid-2020 is only just getting started.

you can tell a real fatigue has set in at the white house already. they just want to be rid of it. unfortunately they're only making the hard work of getting past it that much harder, and more drawn out.

imagine being in portugal right now. they are going to have a regular summer, almost care-free.
Trump is actually shutting down the COVID taskforce that Pence was running soon. He talked privately about just letting the virus "wash over" the country and get it over with. I think the mass protest convinced him to just let the virus do its thing since he figures his base of support won't abandon him.
i think he's tired by it. he didn't want to be president in any real sense, and he definitely has no appetite for actual leadership when it involves managing a crisis like this.

he has done incommensurate harm and the pandemic should blight his presidency more than any fake war like with bush.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England
The states will all reopen because the Senate has already declined to bail them out financially and their tax revenue has fallen off a cliff.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
RTHKI
mmmf mmmf mmmf
+1,726|6227|Oxferd Ohire
Someone at work was watching the video on this site

https://plandemicmovie.com/
Humanity is imprisoned by a killer pandemic. People are being arrested for surfing in the ocean and meditating in nature. Nations are collapsing. Hungry citizens are rioting for food. The media has generated so much confusion and fear that people are begging for salvation in a syringe. Billionaire patent owners are pushing for globally mandated vaccines. Anyone who refuses to be injected with experimental poisons will be prohibited from travel, education and work. No, this is not a synopsis for a new horror movie. This is our current reality.
https://i.imgur.com/tMvdWFG.png
uziq
Member
+491|2942
the anti-vaxxer/anti-experts stuff is never far away from this crisis. it's there, darkening the fringes. you can see it when jay starts railing against scientists and brings up climate change.

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-06 11:38:44)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

RTHKI wrote:

Someone at work was watching the video on this site

https://plandemicmovie.com/
Humanity is imprisoned by a killer pandemic. People are being arrested for surfing in the ocean and meditating in nature. Nations are collapsing. Hungry citizens are rioting for food. The media has generated so much confusion and fear that people are begging for salvation in a syringe. Billionaire patent owners are pushing for globally mandated vaccines. Anyone who refuses to be injected with experimental poisons will be prohibited from travel, education and work. No, this is not a synopsis for a new horror movie. This is our current reality.
I had that linked to me three times today on facebook. Conspiracy theories are running wild.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+491|2942

Jay wrote:

RTHKI wrote:

Someone at work was watching the video on this site

https://plandemicmovie.com/
Humanity is imprisoned by a killer pandemic. People are being arrested for surfing in the ocean and meditating in nature. Nations are collapsing. Hungry citizens are rioting for food. The media has generated so much confusion and fear that people are begging for salvation in a syringe. Billionaire patent owners are pushing for globally mandated vaccines. Anyone who refuses to be injected with experimental poisons will be prohibited from travel, education and work. No, this is not a synopsis for a new horror movie. This is our current reality.
I had that linked to me three times today on facebook. Conspiracy theories are running wild.
your dismissal of experts and any and all modelling is not unconnected to the widespread proliferation of conspiracy theories, jay.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

uziq wrote:

the anti-vaxxer/anti-experts stuff is never far away from this crisis. it's there, darkening the fringes. you can see it when jay starts railing against scientists and brings up climate change.
No, there's quite a bit of difference. I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I am a skeptic.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

RTHKI wrote:

Someone at work was watching the video on this site

https://plandemicmovie.com/
I had that linked to me three times today on facebook. Conspiracy theories are running wild.
your dismissal of experts and any and all modelling is not unconnected to the widespread proliferation of conspiracy theories, jay.
I'm not against modeling. I am against over-reliance on modeling to make policy because I understand their limitations. If models could predict the future, every economist would be a billionaire. Models are always better at looking backwards than forwards.

Last edited by Jay (2020-05-06 11:41:27)

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+491|2942
except the economy is not epidemiology.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+607|3209

Jay wrote:

The states will all reopen because the Senate has already declined to bail them out financially and their tax revenue has fallen off a cliff.
And if they reopen and we end up with hundreds of thousands more dead how would you feel about that? What number of fatalities would be too much?
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

uziq wrote:

except the economy is not epidemiology.
Is it not? They're related more than they are not. They're based on human interaction and modeling how the average human behaves. They can't account very well for randomness, and when you try to model for a global environment the randomness takes over.

My interest in statistical modeling is what inspired me to become an engineer in the first place.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

The states will all reopen because the Senate has already declined to bail them out financially and their tax revenue has fallen off a cliff.
And if they reopen and we end up with hundreds of thousands more dead how would you feel about that? What number of fatalities would be too much?
It doesn't matter anymore. Any chance to control the virus passed many months ago. We just shut down most of the economy in our states for the past six weeks and cases are still rising. What more could be done? Nothing, really. By the end of this, I expect the total will be somewhere around 150,000.

You should be happy though. Almost all of the dead will be boomers.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+607|3209

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

The states will all reopen because the Senate has already declined to bail them out financially and their tax revenue has fallen off a cliff.
And if they reopen and we end up with hundreds of thousands more dead how would you feel about that? What number of fatalities would be too much?
It doesn't matter anymore. Any chance to control the virus passed many months ago. We just shut down most of the economy in our states for the past six weeks and cases are still rising. What more could be done? Nothing, really. By the end of this, I expect the total will be somewhere around 150,000.

You should be happy though. Almost all of the dead will be boomers.
The U.S. is almost unique among nations at the speed in which we lost the political will to keep the lockdown going. We are also the vast leader in cases and soon deaths.

Do you subscribe any blame to the presidential administration or are they blameless? And why were other countries able to muster vast public resources to maintain their economies but the richest country in history couldn't?
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Larssen
Member
+98|1377
I'm very doubtful of the claim that you know limitations of models in fields you have no experience in. This isn't exactly statistics applied to psychology.

I don't see how you can even argue with epidemiological models if we know what the infection rate and transmission speed of a virus is. They're self-evident and never pretend to be something they're not. Stop parroting those insufferable fox news hosts who take worst case projections from 3 months ago to then state 'all experts are wrong and you shouldn't listen to them'. These people are a blight on society.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:


And if they reopen and we end up with hundreds of thousands more dead how would you feel about that? What number of fatalities would be too much?
It doesn't matter anymore. Any chance to control the virus passed many months ago. We just shut down most of the economy in our states for the past six weeks and cases are still rising. What more could be done? Nothing, really. By the end of this, I expect the total will be somewhere around 150,000.

You should be happy though. Almost all of the dead will be boomers.
The U.S. is almost unique among nations at the speed in which we lost the political will to keep the lockdown going. We are also the vast leader in cases and soon deaths.

Do you subscribe any blame to the presidential administration or are they blameless? And why were other countries able to muster vast public resources to maintain their economies but the richest country in history couldn't?
I think there's enough blame to go around that I don't pin it on anyone in particular. The FDA fucked up, the states fucked up, Trump fucked up, the CDC fucked up, the WHO fucked up, China fucked up. Take your pick, man. I mostly blame China for hiding the extent and danger of the outbreak. We got caught off guard and it ran wild. It's easy to second guess and point the finger and say that we should've been more prepared, but you can't prepare for everything, and American government seems to be particularly terrible at planning more than five minutes ahead. Why didn't we have more masks? Why didn't we have more ventilators? Why didn't we have a billion test kits in storage waiting for this day?

None of it matters anymore. Gotta look forward and make the best of a shit situation.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4848|London, England

Larssen wrote:

I'm very doubtful of the claim that you know limitations of models in fields you have no experience in. This isn't exactly statistics applied to psychology.

I don't see how you can even argue with epidemiological models if we know what the infection rate and transmission speed of a virus is. They're self-evident and never pretend to be something they're not. Stop parroting those insufferable fox news hosts who take worst case projections from 3 months ago to then state 'all experts are wrong and you shouldn't listen to them'. These people are a blight on society.
I don't watch or read fox news.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Larssen
Member
+98|1377

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:


It doesn't matter anymore. Any chance to control the virus passed many months ago. We just shut down most of the economy in our states for the past six weeks and cases are still rising. What more could be done? Nothing, really. By the end of this, I expect the total will be somewhere around 150,000.

You should be happy though. Almost all of the dead will be boomers.
The U.S. is almost unique among nations at the speed in which we lost the political will to keep the lockdown going. We are also the vast leader in cases and soon deaths.

Do you subscribe any blame to the presidential administration or are they blameless? And why were other countries able to muster vast public resources to maintain their economies but the richest country in history couldn't?
I think there's enough blame to go around that I don't pin it on anyone in particular. The FDA fucked up, the states fucked up, Trump fucked up, the CDC fucked up, the WHO fucked up, China fucked up. Take your pick, man. I mostly blame China for hiding the extent and danger of the outbreak. We got caught off guard and it ran wild. It's easy to second guess and point the finger and say that we should've been more prepared, but you can't prepare for everything, and American government seems to be particularly terrible at planning more than five minutes ahead. Why didn't we have more masks? Why didn't we have more ventilators? Why didn't we have a billion test kits in storage waiting for this day?

None of it matters anymore. Gotta look forward and make the best of a shit situation.
Your intelligence community was on top of this and Trump dismissed them. He only trails Bolsonaro for the title 'most incompetent leader of the 21st century so far'.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+607|3209
I have an Irish pub on my corner. There is this one boomer alcoholic there named Ken. He had lung cancer, and walked with a cane last time I saw him. He got medical marijuana and was always generous with it when we drank together. I would see him often after I got home from work.

That dude is probably dead or going to die and it makes me sad I won't get to see him again or get asked to drink after work.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg

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