BF2S Forums 10 years in Afghanistan

Beduin wrote:

what are you saying feos?

I'm saying the marked decline in 2010 (~3x more than seen in the preceding years) was due more to the disease than to eradication efforts. However, there was still a downward trend in the preceding years. So an increase in 2011, after a decimation like that, may result in an overall trend that follows previous years. It will still show as an increase, because there wasn't the disease to cut back on the crop like in 2010, but the end result may very well continue the decreasing trend from previous years...make sense?

Lets wait another 10 years and see, we are stuck there anyways

Dilbert_X wrote:

Not really.

How do you know the reductions in previous years were due to eradication and not disease?

Because the reports tell us so.

Did you even read the data in that report? Total area under poppy cultivation is only up 7% from last year...when 48% of the crop was lost to disease. Prices are so high because supply is so low due to last year's disease.

And it's up 61% from being down 48%...and that's potential opium production.

And note:

Report wrote:

Potential opium production increased in 2011 but remained lower than in 2009

Dilbert_X wrote:

Presumably its only called 'potential' production because we don't know the real figures.
If we assume the error in all the potential figures is about the same then 2011 is still one of the best years for opium production - 10 years on.

So you're still using opium poppy farming as your measure for how well Afghanistan is doing with regard to building its government, economy, and so on?

gg

because we suck. teach us, dilbert

Dilbert_X wrote:

I'm going to stick my neck out and say if the economy were doing great they'd be making iPads instead of growing opium.
If they govt were doing great they wouldn't be allowing them to grow opium - the stone-age Taliban managed to cut it to ~zero, how are 100,000+ troops with 21st century weapons, satellites, space lasers etc failing so hard?

So you didn't read the report then. It lists the reasons why the farmers are growing opium poppies.

And did you expect a country that had no educational or industrial infrastructure to speak of for decades to suddenly have the ability to put out iPads in a few years? Do you realize what that takes?

And, as stated before the Taliban did that by beheading anyone who grew poppies. You really want the Afghans and Coalition to just round up all the farmers, put them into soccer stadiums, and start shooting them in giant public gorefests, a la the Taliban? That would probably cut poppy production down to near zero for you...bring your single success metric down to where you'll be happy...

FEOS wrote:

And did you expect a country that had no educational or industrial infrastructure to speak of for decades to suddenly have the ability to put out iPads in a few years? Do you realize what that takes?...

The Chinese did it.

Dilbert_X wrote:

- the stone-age Taliban managed to cut it to ~zero

how did they do that?

Dilbert_X wrote:

FEOS wrote:

And did you expect a country that had no educational or industrial infrastructure to speak of for decades to suddenly have the ability to put out iPads in a few years? Do you realize what that takes?...

The Chinese did it.

No. They didn't.

Dilbert_X wrote:

FEOS wrote:

And did you expect a country that had no educational or industrial infrastructure to speak of for decades to suddenly have the ability to put out iPads in a few years? Do you realize what that takes?...

The Chinese did it.

With sweet sweet american money. Oh and china did have a decent government infrastructure. took them decades to actually churn something quality out.

Dilbert_X wrote:

By convincing the farmers it was not in their interests to be cultivating opium.

how did they convince them?

Dilbert_X wrote:

In the case of the Taliban by telling them they'd have their heads cut off.
There are other ways of convincing people of course.

Tell us more of the Taliban's methods, please.

Particularly which methods would be best for the US and EU to adopt, in Afghanistan and at home.

rdx-fx wrote:

Dilbert_X wrote:

In the case of the Taliban by telling them they'd have their heads cut off.
There are other ways of convincing people of course.

Tell us more of the Taliban's methods, please.

Particularly which methods would be best for the US and EU to adopt, in Afghanistan and at home.

You've hear of carrot and stick? Try either or both.