Here is how it breaks down.
Just how strong is the labor market? Investors will be looking at this week's October employment report for some answers. In September, companies added a meager 51,000 persons to their payrolls. But the August hiring gain was revised up to a total of 188,000, an additional 60,000 jobs. Perhaps more important were the 810,000 workers the Labor Dept. added to payrolls for the 12 months ended in March, 2006. Throw those extra jobs into the mix and the labor market would appear a bit stronger than previously thought.
The pace of hiring has important implications. If the September level persists, it would imply that businesses are not so confident about future prospects. However, hiring around this year's monthly average of 137,000 should be enough to gradually tighten the labor market and fuel solid wage growth. Right now, economists are forecasting a 125,000 rise in payrolls for October.
There is a lot of other important economic data that comes ahead of the jobs report. Investors and economists will pay close attention to the third-quarter figures on productivity and employee costs. Both will cast some light on whether employees are benefiting from the healthy labor market via better paychecks. Over the past two quarters, the employment cost index has shown some acceleration in wages and salaries.
The Institute for Supply Management's October factory and non-manufacturing activity reports will provide an update on the health of businesses. The latest report on durable goods showed that orders for nondefense capital goods, minus the volatile civilian aircraft segment, climbed a solid 1.1% in September.
The housing recession and volatile energy prices mean businesses have a particularly important position in keeping the economy running at a solid pace. Further hiring will play a big role in sustaining consumer spending. Plus, business investment is helping to fuel nonresidential construction and to keep factories humming.
Here's the weekly economic calendar, from Action Economics.
Report Date Time For Median Estimate Last Period Personal Income Monday, Oct. 30 8:30 a.m. September 0.4% 0.3% Personal Consumption Expenditures Monday, Oct. 30 8:30 a.m. September 0.2% 0.1% Employment Cost Index Tuesday, Oct. 31 8:30 a.m. October 0.9% 0.9% Chicago Business Barometer Tuesday, Oct. 31 10:00 a.m. October 59.0 62.1 Consumer Confidence Tuesday, Oct. 31 10:00 a.m. October 107.5 104.5 ISM Manufacturing Report on Business Wednesday, Nov. 1 10:00 a.m. October 53.0 52.9 Construction Spending Wednesday, Nov. 1 10:00 a.m. September 0.1% 0.3% Nonfarm Productivity (Annual rate) Thursday, Nov. 2 8:30 a.m. Q3 1.5% 1.6% Unit Labor Costs (Annual rate) Thursday, Nov. 2 8:30 a.m. Q3 3.4% 4.9% Factory Orders Thursday, Nov. 2 10:00 a.m. September 1.1% 0.0% Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands) Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October 125 51 Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousands) Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October -2 -19 Unemployment Rate Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October 4.6% 4.6% Average Hourly Earnings Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October 0.3% 0.2% Hours Worked Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October 33.8 33.8 ISM Non- Manufacturing Report on Business Friday, Nov. 3 10:00 a.m. October 54.0 52.9
Meetings Of Note Monday, Oct. 30, 8:30 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker talks about monetary policy at the Greater Baltimore Committee's Business Outlook Conference 2007 in Baltimore, Md.
9:15 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow makes opening remarks at the bank's conference entitled "Can Higher Education Foster Economic Growth" in Chicago.
Personal Income And Consumer Spending Monday, Oct. 30, 8:30 a.m. EST
September personal income probably grew at a slightly quicker pace. The consensus view is for a 0.4% gain in September, following a 0.3% increase in August and a 0.5% gain in July.
Compared to the same period a year ago, incomes in August were up 9.4%, from 7% in July. The big rise is influenced by the effects of last year's hurricanes. In August of 2005, income dropped 1.8% due in large part to big hits on rental and proprietors' incomes.
Consumer spending likely accelerated a tick in September. The September retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau showed a big drop in sales at gasoline stations due to lower gas prices. At the same time, the enhanced purchasing power from lower energy prices helped fuel more spending on other items. The same pattern will likely appear in the September consumer spending data. August sales edged up 0.1% and stood 6% above the year ago level.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index should reflect some decline in energy prices during September. In August, the monthly gain in the PCE price index was 0.2%, after rising 0.3% in July. Compared to a year ago, the increase was 3.2%, from 3.4% in July. Excluding food and energy, prices also grew 0.2% in August. Compared to a year ago, the index was up 2.5%. The core PCE measure of inflation continues to linger above the Federal Reserve's 1% to 2% comfort level.
Icsc-Ubs Store Sales Tuesday, Oct. 31, 7:45 a.m. EST
This weekly tracking of retail sales, compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS bank, will update buying activity for the period ending Oct. 28. Sales fell 1.1% in the week ended Oct. 21, after gains of 0.6% in the week ended Oct. 14, and 0.5% in the prior period. Sales for the week cooled to a 2.9% rise from a year ago.
Employment Cost Index Tuesday, Oct. 31, 8:30 a.m. EST
The Labor Dept.'s third-quarter employment cost index, a measure of wages, salaries, and benefits paid by businesses, is expected to increase at the same pace as the second quarter. In the April to June period, the annualized percent change was 0.9%, after a 0.6% gain in the first period. The rises among wages and salaries, and benefits were pretty evenly split.
Compared to a year ago, the gain in wages in salaries has been accelerating, while benefits costs have been slowing. In the third quarter, wages were up 2.8% from a year ago after a 2.5% gain in the prior quarter. The benefits index grew 3.4% from a year ago, after a 5% yearly jump in the second quarter. The data reflect Corporate America's focus on limiting health care and other benefits costs.
Johnson Redbook Index Tuesday, Oct. 31, 8:55 a.m. EST
This weekly measure of retail activity will report on sales for the fourth and final fiscal week of October, ended Oct. 28. During the first three weeks, ending Oct. 21, sales were up 1.3% from the same period in September. For the month of September, sales were unchanged from August.
Consumer Confidence Index Tuesday, Oct. 31, 10 a.m. EST
The Conference Board's October index of consumer confidence is expected to keep improving. In September, the index was 104.5, from 100.2 in August. The September gain was due in large part to lower gasoline prices. Respondents also expressed slightly more optimism regarding the labor market and business conditions. Nearly 20% said they expected personal income to grow over the next six months, up from close to 18% in August.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey Tuesday, Oct. 31, 10 a.m. EST
The Chicago-area purchasing managers' October index of industrial activity most likely cooled off a little. The index posted a surprising level of 62.1% in September, from 57.1% in August and 57.9% in July.
The production index rallied to 67.4% in September, the highest level since October of 2005. The new orders index surged to 67.3% in September, from 59.6% in August. Respondents also indicated that order backlogs inched up a little, with the index reaching 51%. The index was under 50%, indicating that backlogs were declining, in the prior two months.
Meeting Of Note Wednesday, Nov. 1, 12 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the keynote speech at the Opportunity Finance Network Conference in Washington, D.C.
Vehicle Sales Wednesday, Nov. 1
Vehicle sales probably slipped a bit in October. According to WardsAuto.com, sales likely fell to an annualized rate of 15.7 million units. In September, sales climbed back to a pace of 16.6 million, after dipping to a rate of 16 million in August. In July, sales reached a rate of 17.1 million vehicles.
Mortgage Applications Wednesday, Nov. 1, 7 a.m. EST
The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its numbers on mortgage application volume for both home buying and refinancing for the week ending Oct. 27. The purchase index remained pretty steady at 382.4 for the week ended Oct. 20, from 384.7 in the prior period, and 383.3 in the week ended Oct. 6. The refi index turned up to 1790.4, from 1758.2 for the week ended Oct. 13.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.36% for the period ended Oct. 20, from 6.33% in the prior week.
The four-week moving average for the purchase index rose to 388.8, from 387.1. At the same time, the four-week average for the refi index climbed for a thirteenth straight week to 1844.1, from 1815.9.
Ism Survey Wednesday, Nov. 1, 10 a.m. EST
The Institute for Supply Management's October factory activity index is expected to hold pretty steady. In September, the index hit 52.9%, its lowest level since. The August index reading was 54.5%. Over the past year, the index has come in at an average reading of 55.4%.
At the same time, the new orders index held up at 54.2% for a second straight month. The production index edged down to 56.1%, from 56.6%. The employment index drop to 49.4%, from 54%, weighed on the overall reading. The September measure of unfilled orders sank below 50%, indicating a decline in backlogs. Inventory levels also eased with a September reading of 46.4%, from 50.2% in August.
Construction Spending Wednesday, Nov. 1, 10 a.m. EDT
Construction outlays probably edged up a little in September. During August, spending rose 0.3% despite a 1.5% drop in private residential construction spending. Nonresidential spending jumped 3.4% in August, led by gains of 5.2% in the commercial sector and 8.2% in manufacturing. Overall spending in July declined 1% on a 2.1% drop in the residential area.
Through the year, nonresidential construction activity has been able to largely mitigate the drag from the housing slump. Nonresidential outlays are up 13.6% from December, while housing is down 7.3%.
Meeting Of Note Thursday, Nov. 2, 12 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher speaks before the New York Association for Business Economics in New York City.
Jobless Claims Thursday, Nov. 2, 8:30 a.m. EST
Jobless claims moved up to 308,000 in the week ended Oct. 21, from 300,000 for the week ended Oct. 14. The four-week moving average fell to 305,250, from 308,000 in the week ended Oct. 14. Continuing jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 14 held at 2.45 million.
Productivity And Costs Thursday, Nov. 2, 8:30 a.m. EST
Nonfarm productivity growth probably edged a little lower in the third quarter. The consensus view is productivity grew at an annual pace of 1.5% in the July to September period, after registering a 1.6% annual pace in the second quarter.
Unit labor cost increases are expected to slow down as well. In the second quarter, the annualized rate of growth was 4.9%, after growing by 9% in the first quarter.
Prior levels of productivity could eventually be revised down. The Labor Dept. revised up the level of hiring in the 12 months through March of 2006 by 810,000. A larger labor force given the same level of output means a reduction in productivity growth.
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, And Orders Thursday, Nov. 2, 10 a.m. EDT
Factory orders probably piled up at a strong pace in September. In August, factory orders were steady, after a 1% drop in July. September orders for durable goods were already reported to have surged 7.8% on a huge bounce in civilian aircraft orders.
The August decline in factory orders was broad based. A drop in civilian aircraft orders were more than offset by a jump in orders for boats and ships and a gain in motor vehicle orders. Elsewhere, orders for computers and machinery were off in August.
The level of unfilled orders increased further in August, posting a rise of 0.4%. In July, unfilled orders rose 1.2%. The upward climb in unfilled orders should keep manufacturers busy in the coming months.
The September durable goods report showed some positive signs. Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, rose 1.1% in September, after a 0.8% rise in August. Unfilled orders figures were also pretty strong. The results are a good sign for future factory activity.
Employment Report Friday, Nov. 3, 8:30 a.m. EDT
The consensus forecast calls for a modest increase in October payrolls of 125,000 workers. Nonfarm businesses added just 51,000 workers in September. Howver, there were large revisions to prior numbers. The August tally of payrolls was revised up by 60,000 workers, bringing the total gain to 188,000.
Manufacturers are still trimming payrolls, cutting 19,000 in September, after a revised drop of 7,000 in August.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.6% for a second straight month. Another key area to watch is wages. Average hourly wages grew 0.2% in September for a second straight month. The rise kept the yearly increase at 4%, the highest level of hourly wage growth since the first half of 2001. Solid pay gains helped partially offset high energy costs and will soften the hit from the downturn in housing.
Ism Non-Manufacturing Survey Friday, Nov. 3, 10 a.m. EST
The Institute for Supply Management issues the October index of business activity for the non-manufacturing sector, which is comprised of mostly service sector businesses. The headline index is forecast to improve to 54%. The September reading was 52.9%, from 57% in August. The September reading was the lowest since April of 2003. Just 10 out of 18 industry sectors said that activity had increased during the period.
In the September report, the details painted a brighter picture than the headline result. Despite the retreat in September, the new orders index jumped to 57.2%, from 52.1% in August. The higher reading means orders grew at a faster pace. The index tracking orders from abroad shot up to 59%, from 53% the month before. The employment index also implied more hiring.
Day Companies Monday Ashland, FPL Group, Humana, KIMCO Realty, MetLife, Principal Financial Group, Simon Property Group, Verizon, Vulcan Materials Tuesday American Electric Power, Automatic Data Processing, BJ Services, Cummins, Eastman Kodak, Entergy, EOG Resources, Equity Office Properties Trust, Equity Residential, Hilton Hotels, Loews, Marathon Oil, Masco, McKesson, Molson Coors Brewing, PNC Financial Services Group, PPL, Procter & Gamble, Qwest Communications, Rowan, Safeco, United States Steel, Valero Energy, Vornado Realty Trust Wednesday Allergan, Allied Waste Industries, CIGNA, Cincinnati Financial, Clorox, Devon Energy, Dominion Resources, Electronic Data Systems, Marsh & McLennan, Maxim Integrated Products, MeadWestvaco, Mylan Laboratories, Newmont Mining, Parametric Technology, Prudential Financial, PSEG, Rockwell Collins, Sunoco, Time Warner, UnumProvident, Wyndham Worldwide Thursday American Power Conversion, AmeriSourceBergen, Apartment Investment & Management, Becton Dickinson and Company, CA, Caremark Rx, CBS, CenterPoint Energy, CenturyTel, CMS Energy, Computer Sciences, Consolidated Edison, CVS, Electronic Arts, International Paper, JDS Uniphase, NiSource, QUALCOMM, Sabre Holdings, Sempra Energy, Transocean, Univision Communications, Williams Friday Ameren, Duke Energy, KeySpan, Medco Health Solutions, Peoples Energy, Progress Energy
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20061027/bs_ … 1026321632
Just how strong is the labor market? Investors will be looking at this week's October employment report for some answers. In September, companies added a meager 51,000 persons to their payrolls. But the August hiring gain was revised up to a total of 188,000, an additional 60,000 jobs. Perhaps more important were the 810,000 workers the Labor Dept. added to payrolls for the 12 months ended in March, 2006. Throw those extra jobs into the mix and the labor market would appear a bit stronger than previously thought.
The pace of hiring has important implications. If the September level persists, it would imply that businesses are not so confident about future prospects. However, hiring around this year's monthly average of 137,000 should be enough to gradually tighten the labor market and fuel solid wage growth. Right now, economists are forecasting a 125,000 rise in payrolls for October.
There is a lot of other important economic data that comes ahead of the jobs report. Investors and economists will pay close attention to the third-quarter figures on productivity and employee costs. Both will cast some light on whether employees are benefiting from the healthy labor market via better paychecks. Over the past two quarters, the employment cost index has shown some acceleration in wages and salaries.
The Institute for Supply Management's October factory and non-manufacturing activity reports will provide an update on the health of businesses. The latest report on durable goods showed that orders for nondefense capital goods, minus the volatile civilian aircraft segment, climbed a solid 1.1% in September.
The housing recession and volatile energy prices mean businesses have a particularly important position in keeping the economy running at a solid pace. Further hiring will play a big role in sustaining consumer spending. Plus, business investment is helping to fuel nonresidential construction and to keep factories humming.
Here's the weekly economic calendar, from Action Economics.
Report Date Time For Median Estimate Last Period Personal Income Monday, Oct. 30 8:30 a.m. September 0.4% 0.3% Personal Consumption Expenditures Monday, Oct. 30 8:30 a.m. September 0.2% 0.1% Employment Cost Index Tuesday, Oct. 31 8:30 a.m. October 0.9% 0.9% Chicago Business Barometer Tuesday, Oct. 31 10:00 a.m. October 59.0 62.1 Consumer Confidence Tuesday, Oct. 31 10:00 a.m. October 107.5 104.5 ISM Manufacturing Report on Business Wednesday, Nov. 1 10:00 a.m. October 53.0 52.9 Construction Spending Wednesday, Nov. 1 10:00 a.m. September 0.1% 0.3% Nonfarm Productivity (Annual rate) Thursday, Nov. 2 8:30 a.m. Q3 1.5% 1.6% Unit Labor Costs (Annual rate) Thursday, Nov. 2 8:30 a.m. Q3 3.4% 4.9% Factory Orders Thursday, Nov. 2 10:00 a.m. September 1.1% 0.0% Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands) Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October 125 51 Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousands) Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October -2 -19 Unemployment Rate Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October 4.6% 4.6% Average Hourly Earnings Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October 0.3% 0.2% Hours Worked Friday, Nov. 3 8:30 a.m. October 33.8 33.8 ISM Non- Manufacturing Report on Business Friday, Nov. 3 10:00 a.m. October 54.0 52.9
Meetings Of Note Monday, Oct. 30, 8:30 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker talks about monetary policy at the Greater Baltimore Committee's Business Outlook Conference 2007 in Baltimore, Md.
9:15 a.m. EST
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow makes opening remarks at the bank's conference entitled "Can Higher Education Foster Economic Growth" in Chicago.
Personal Income And Consumer Spending Monday, Oct. 30, 8:30 a.m. EST
September personal income probably grew at a slightly quicker pace. The consensus view is for a 0.4% gain in September, following a 0.3% increase in August and a 0.5% gain in July.
Compared to the same period a year ago, incomes in August were up 9.4%, from 7% in July. The big rise is influenced by the effects of last year's hurricanes. In August of 2005, income dropped 1.8% due in large part to big hits on rental and proprietors' incomes.
Consumer spending likely accelerated a tick in September. The September retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau showed a big drop in sales at gasoline stations due to lower gas prices. At the same time, the enhanced purchasing power from lower energy prices helped fuel more spending on other items. The same pattern will likely appear in the September consumer spending data. August sales edged up 0.1% and stood 6% above the year ago level.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index should reflect some decline in energy prices during September. In August, the monthly gain in the PCE price index was 0.2%, after rising 0.3% in July. Compared to a year ago, the increase was 3.2%, from 3.4% in July. Excluding food and energy, prices also grew 0.2% in August. Compared to a year ago, the index was up 2.5%. The core PCE measure of inflation continues to linger above the Federal Reserve's 1% to 2% comfort level.
Icsc-Ubs Store Sales Tuesday, Oct. 31, 7:45 a.m. EST
This weekly tracking of retail sales, compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS bank, will update buying activity for the period ending Oct. 28. Sales fell 1.1% in the week ended Oct. 21, after gains of 0.6% in the week ended Oct. 14, and 0.5% in the prior period. Sales for the week cooled to a 2.9% rise from a year ago.
Employment Cost Index Tuesday, Oct. 31, 8:30 a.m. EST
The Labor Dept.'s third-quarter employment cost index, a measure of wages, salaries, and benefits paid by businesses, is expected to increase at the same pace as the second quarter. In the April to June period, the annualized percent change was 0.9%, after a 0.6% gain in the first period. The rises among wages and salaries, and benefits were pretty evenly split.
Compared to a year ago, the gain in wages in salaries has been accelerating, while benefits costs have been slowing. In the third quarter, wages were up 2.8% from a year ago after a 2.5% gain in the prior quarter. The benefits index grew 3.4% from a year ago, after a 5% yearly jump in the second quarter. The data reflect Corporate America's focus on limiting health care and other benefits costs.
Johnson Redbook Index Tuesday, Oct. 31, 8:55 a.m. EST
This weekly measure of retail activity will report on sales for the fourth and final fiscal week of October, ended Oct. 28. During the first three weeks, ending Oct. 21, sales were up 1.3% from the same period in September. For the month of September, sales were unchanged from August.
Consumer Confidence Index Tuesday, Oct. 31, 10 a.m. EST
The Conference Board's October index of consumer confidence is expected to keep improving. In September, the index was 104.5, from 100.2 in August. The September gain was due in large part to lower gasoline prices. Respondents also expressed slightly more optimism regarding the labor market and business conditions. Nearly 20% said they expected personal income to grow over the next six months, up from close to 18% in August.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey Tuesday, Oct. 31, 10 a.m. EST
The Chicago-area purchasing managers' October index of industrial activity most likely cooled off a little. The index posted a surprising level of 62.1% in September, from 57.1% in August and 57.9% in July.
The production index rallied to 67.4% in September, the highest level since October of 2005. The new orders index surged to 67.3% in September, from 59.6% in August. Respondents also indicated that order backlogs inched up a little, with the index reaching 51%. The index was under 50%, indicating that backlogs were declining, in the prior two months.
Meeting Of Note Wednesday, Nov. 1, 12 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the keynote speech at the Opportunity Finance Network Conference in Washington, D.C.
Vehicle Sales Wednesday, Nov. 1
Vehicle sales probably slipped a bit in October. According to WardsAuto.com, sales likely fell to an annualized rate of 15.7 million units. In September, sales climbed back to a pace of 16.6 million, after dipping to a rate of 16 million in August. In July, sales reached a rate of 17.1 million vehicles.
Mortgage Applications Wednesday, Nov. 1, 7 a.m. EST
The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its numbers on mortgage application volume for both home buying and refinancing for the week ending Oct. 27. The purchase index remained pretty steady at 382.4 for the week ended Oct. 20, from 384.7 in the prior period, and 383.3 in the week ended Oct. 6. The refi index turned up to 1790.4, from 1758.2 for the week ended Oct. 13.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.36% for the period ended Oct. 20, from 6.33% in the prior week.
The four-week moving average for the purchase index rose to 388.8, from 387.1. At the same time, the four-week average for the refi index climbed for a thirteenth straight week to 1844.1, from 1815.9.
Ism Survey Wednesday, Nov. 1, 10 a.m. EST
The Institute for Supply Management's October factory activity index is expected to hold pretty steady. In September, the index hit 52.9%, its lowest level since. The August index reading was 54.5%. Over the past year, the index has come in at an average reading of 55.4%.
At the same time, the new orders index held up at 54.2% for a second straight month. The production index edged down to 56.1%, from 56.6%. The employment index drop to 49.4%, from 54%, weighed on the overall reading. The September measure of unfilled orders sank below 50%, indicating a decline in backlogs. Inventory levels also eased with a September reading of 46.4%, from 50.2% in August.
Construction Spending Wednesday, Nov. 1, 10 a.m. EDT
Construction outlays probably edged up a little in September. During August, spending rose 0.3% despite a 1.5% drop in private residential construction spending. Nonresidential spending jumped 3.4% in August, led by gains of 5.2% in the commercial sector and 8.2% in manufacturing. Overall spending in July declined 1% on a 2.1% drop in the residential area.
Through the year, nonresidential construction activity has been able to largely mitigate the drag from the housing slump. Nonresidential outlays are up 13.6% from December, while housing is down 7.3%.
Meeting Of Note Thursday, Nov. 2, 12 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher speaks before the New York Association for Business Economics in New York City.
Jobless Claims Thursday, Nov. 2, 8:30 a.m. EST
Jobless claims moved up to 308,000 in the week ended Oct. 21, from 300,000 for the week ended Oct. 14. The four-week moving average fell to 305,250, from 308,000 in the week ended Oct. 14. Continuing jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 14 held at 2.45 million.
Productivity And Costs Thursday, Nov. 2, 8:30 a.m. EST
Nonfarm productivity growth probably edged a little lower in the third quarter. The consensus view is productivity grew at an annual pace of 1.5% in the July to September period, after registering a 1.6% annual pace in the second quarter.
Unit labor cost increases are expected to slow down as well. In the second quarter, the annualized rate of growth was 4.9%, after growing by 9% in the first quarter.
Prior levels of productivity could eventually be revised down. The Labor Dept. revised up the level of hiring in the 12 months through March of 2006 by 810,000. A larger labor force given the same level of output means a reduction in productivity growth.
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, And Orders Thursday, Nov. 2, 10 a.m. EDT
Factory orders probably piled up at a strong pace in September. In August, factory orders were steady, after a 1% drop in July. September orders for durable goods were already reported to have surged 7.8% on a huge bounce in civilian aircraft orders.
The August decline in factory orders was broad based. A drop in civilian aircraft orders were more than offset by a jump in orders for boats and ships and a gain in motor vehicle orders. Elsewhere, orders for computers and machinery were off in August.
The level of unfilled orders increased further in August, posting a rise of 0.4%. In July, unfilled orders rose 1.2%. The upward climb in unfilled orders should keep manufacturers busy in the coming months.
The September durable goods report showed some positive signs. Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, rose 1.1% in September, after a 0.8% rise in August. Unfilled orders figures were also pretty strong. The results are a good sign for future factory activity.
Employment Report Friday, Nov. 3, 8:30 a.m. EDT
The consensus forecast calls for a modest increase in October payrolls of 125,000 workers. Nonfarm businesses added just 51,000 workers in September. Howver, there were large revisions to prior numbers. The August tally of payrolls was revised up by 60,000 workers, bringing the total gain to 188,000.
Manufacturers are still trimming payrolls, cutting 19,000 in September, after a revised drop of 7,000 in August.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.6% for a second straight month. Another key area to watch is wages. Average hourly wages grew 0.2% in September for a second straight month. The rise kept the yearly increase at 4%, the highest level of hourly wage growth since the first half of 2001. Solid pay gains helped partially offset high energy costs and will soften the hit from the downturn in housing.
Ism Non-Manufacturing Survey Friday, Nov. 3, 10 a.m. EST
The Institute for Supply Management issues the October index of business activity for the non-manufacturing sector, which is comprised of mostly service sector businesses. The headline index is forecast to improve to 54%. The September reading was 52.9%, from 57% in August. The September reading was the lowest since April of 2003. Just 10 out of 18 industry sectors said that activity had increased during the period.
In the September report, the details painted a brighter picture than the headline result. Despite the retreat in September, the new orders index jumped to 57.2%, from 52.1% in August. The higher reading means orders grew at a faster pace. The index tracking orders from abroad shot up to 59%, from 53% the month before. The employment index also implied more hiring.
Day Companies Monday Ashland, FPL Group, Humana, KIMCO Realty, MetLife, Principal Financial Group, Simon Property Group, Verizon, Vulcan Materials Tuesday American Electric Power, Automatic Data Processing, BJ Services, Cummins, Eastman Kodak, Entergy, EOG Resources, Equity Office Properties Trust, Equity Residential, Hilton Hotels, Loews, Marathon Oil, Masco, McKesson, Molson Coors Brewing, PNC Financial Services Group, PPL, Procter & Gamble, Qwest Communications, Rowan, Safeco, United States Steel, Valero Energy, Vornado Realty Trust Wednesday Allergan, Allied Waste Industries, CIGNA, Cincinnati Financial, Clorox, Devon Energy, Dominion Resources, Electronic Data Systems, Marsh & McLennan, Maxim Integrated Products, MeadWestvaco, Mylan Laboratories, Newmont Mining, Parametric Technology, Prudential Financial, PSEG, Rockwell Collins, Sunoco, Time Warner, UnumProvident, Wyndham Worldwide Thursday American Power Conversion, AmeriSourceBergen, Apartment Investment & Management, Becton Dickinson and Company, CA, Caremark Rx, CBS, CenterPoint Energy, CenturyTel, CMS Energy, Computer Sciences, Consolidated Edison, CVS, Electronic Arts, International Paper, JDS Uniphase, NiSource, QUALCOMM, Sabre Holdings, Sempra Energy, Transocean, Univision Communications, Williams Friday Ameren, Duke Energy, KeySpan, Medco Health Solutions, Peoples Energy, Progress Energy
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20061027/bs_ … 1026321632
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