uziq wrote:
if there's ever to be a civil war, as per that james meek article (linked in the presidential election thread), it's likely going to be enabled by a bunch of gun-toting 'militiamen' who have been using the 2A in a maximally dishonest way. stockpiling all those weapons isn't about resisting 'tyranny'. it's about interrupting the just processes of democracy. the capitol hill riots were just the beginning. a lot of people in america think that their grievances and their personal arsenals give them the right to overturn presidential results they don't like.
I read the article, but let's accept that Barbara Walter's book makes some very questionable arguments on how civil wars start. Notably the reductive quantification and putting all her eggs in the Centre for Systemic Peace basket while the same infallible data wizards apparently judged the UK during the outbreak of the troubles a 10/10 democracy (among other issues). Goes to show the assumptions and notions that determine the numerical outcome of some algorithm hocus pocus should be a little more closely considered.
That said I do agree with the premise that civil wars show recurring patterns, but each one has its own unique context and discourse to consider, which hardly lends itself well for quantification.
If her argument explores the notion of just civil wars and just violence as well, to later draw parallels with the United States and leave the reader with the implicit notion that the 'liberal order' (and people of colour are apparently mentioned explicitly in there as well) must be ready to fight the probable white male conservative usurpers.... not sure if that's the right message to put out. Seems a little devoid of self reflection as well. Perhaps Walter's cultural baggage and emotional attachment to her own country's political state of affairs is clouding her judgment just a tiny bit.
Not to state that the capitol riots, the abduction plots we read about and Trump's dismissal of the election results aren't highly alarming. But I don't see the US dive into 1861 volume 2 just yet.
Last edited by Larssen (2022-05-29 07:04:39)
