i doubt it will escalate to other NATO powers at this point. the baltic states, poland, moldova, etc, were all feeling pretty nervous in the first month but i think the difficulties faced by the russian military have put pay to that idea. no way would russia be able to re-attempt its failed 'blitzkrieg' and push into actual NATO territory like poland.
i think it's likely that china/india will in some way help russia. that's why this conflict is of serious global consequence; it involves 'great powers' facing off to one another. the outcome will be a serious realignment or reordering of the global power dynamics. that's why it's not just a small conflict between two neighbours over borders or territory. if russia fails, putin arguably falls, and one of the 'great powers' that have figured in the global order for the last 150 years will suddenly drop off the map. the consequences are serious and far-reaching. they have the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world. this war will have serious consequences, whichever way it goes. it's not just like the global order can shrug and try to forget about the awkward fact of total state collapse in russia, like we've done with afghanistan.
the best hope is that both sides can climb down from the current situation, precisely because nothing good can come of a continued or escalated war ... even though we are supporting ukraine now, i don't think anyone really wants to see what happens when russia is backed into a corner. the hawks in the DC establishment who are calling for regime change in russia are palpably insane. not even neo-nazi ukrainians have had these aims.
i know you think it's 'not serious' because 'thousands aren't dying', but the economic measures we are inflicting on the russian economy have never been seen before in world history. it's a new form of warfare that we are actively pursuing ... against the russian people. not the russian elites, not really anyway. most of the sanctions and embargoes hurt the general populace. that's 150 million people we are driving into a corner. and polls show that russians are gradually rallying behind putin, from an initial period of confusion/anger/protest. most russians are actually now getting behind putin. that just goes to show you what all of our 'effective' sanctions achieve. people's daily lives are made miserable and they hate the foreign aggressors who are seemingly making it so, not their own leadership. thousands of people don't have to die every day for a war to be serious.
i read somewhere that our economic sanctions are doing more damage to people in egypt or the middle east, who are dependent on grain imports from russia, than they are to putin and his inner circle. even though the war is still 'cold' from a NATO military point-of-view, this war is still dragging in and affecting millions of people globally.
Last edited by uziq (2022-04-03 20:14:46)
