A lot of Russians with means are straight up leaving the country. The economy seems destined for collapse and there is a lot of fear that Russia will close the border.
- SuperJail Warden
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Oil and gas war has arrived, US and UK have made their move, now it Putin's.
He can blow up Europe, and Russia, by cutting off gas. I think he'll do it.
It'll be a very painful year or two for everyone, then the world will recover, Russia will pivot to China.
Best case scenario is Putin gets a solid blow to the back of the head.
He can blow up Europe, and Russia, by cutting off gas. I think he'll do it.
It'll be a very painful year or two for everyone, then the world will recover, Russia will pivot to China.
Best case scenario is Putin gets a solid blow to the back of the head.
Fuck Israel
it'll be a necessary spur to deep investment in our own energy infrastructure, hopefully a pivot to major investment in green energy but more likely, and more depressingly, a sop to all the frackers and oil men's deepest vanities in the short-term.
i've already seen news articles on my feed about talks today to revive the project for a tidal barrier on the severn estuary. the fickleness of our clueless politicians, be damned, it should have been started 10 or 20 years ago.
i also wouldn't be so sure that this stays as an economic war, now, either. poland are giving their entire jet fleet to ukraine, and putin has spoken before in his more deranged and grandiose moments about his desire to retake poland and most of eastern europe. wouldn't surprise me if some level of violence breaks out across the border, testing NATO's resolve.
i've already seen news articles on my feed about talks today to revive the project for a tidal barrier on the severn estuary. the fickleness of our clueless politicians, be damned, it should have been started 10 or 20 years ago.
i also wouldn't be so sure that this stays as an economic war, now, either. poland are giving their entire jet fleet to ukraine, and putin has spoken before in his more deranged and grandiose moments about his desire to retake poland and most of eastern europe. wouldn't surprise me if some level of violence breaks out across the border, testing NATO's resolve.
Last edited by uziq (2022-03-08 15:07:54)
Little incidents will stat happening across NATO's border, a wayward artillery shell here, a bit of radar painting there, accidentally shooting down an airliner.
The Russians are routinely sending warplanes into Sweden's airspace already, and bombers at Britain.
The Russians are routinely sending warplanes into Sweden's airspace already, and bombers at Britain.
Fuck Israel
McDonald's is out. An iconic addition of western business to Russia, Yeltsin photo-ops with burger flippers, in-era comics of the golden arches sharing a skyline with Saint Basil's Cathedral, undone.
More reluctant-to-dislodge businesses suspending operation.
What a pointless war.
More reluctant-to-dislodge businesses suspending operation.
What a pointless war.
Interesting to see what will happen with all these shut down businesses, reopen with a new sign on the front is my guess.
Fuck Israel
Can I buy a Republican congressman on second-hand discount?
any country that loses mcdonald’s is net benefitting. there’s been a long-established correlation between the no. of mcdonald’s franchises in a country and its obesity index.
It was my thought as well. McD's and Coke gone in one fell swoop.
Then we should open more McDonalds in Russia.
There'll be plenty of British MPs looking for their next income stream, buy one of them.
There'll be plenty of British MPs looking for their next income stream, buy one of them.
Fuck Israel
- SuperJail Warden
- Gone Forever
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U.S. is trying to set up an oil deal with Venezuela.
Too bad Trump offed that Iranian general. We could have bought them out too.Venezuela’s authoritarian government on Tuesday released at least two imprisoned Americans, an American official and Venezuelan human rights defenders said, a potential turning point in the Biden administration’s relationship with Russia’s staunchest ally in the Western Hemisphere.
The release followed a rare trip by a high-level U.S. delegation to Venezuela over the weekend to meet with President Nicolás Maduro, part of a broader Biden administration agenda in autocratic countries that may be rethinking their ties with President Vladimir V. Putin in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The talks with Venezuela, which has enormous proven oil reserves, assumed new urgency after President Biden announced Tuesday that the United States would ban Russian oil and gas imports because of the invasion. That move is expected to further tighten the availability of crude oil on the global market, and could raise gas prices at a moment when inflation has climbed at its fastest pace in 40 years.
note that venezuela and maduro have survived under russia-level strict sanctions for the last 5 years.
this stuff doesn’t always work.
this stuff doesn’t always work.
Like a decade ago in my undergrad I remember reading several papers that already outlined the ineffectiveness of sanctions.
China is also a factor.
I read an article today pointing out that anti-China sentiment, sanctions against China or even a global depression are not what China needs right now.
Their property market and stock market are in huge bubbles right now and could both burst with mild pressure.
They might start some arm-twisting if they decide its in their interests.
OTOH China is so interlocked in the supply of everything and disruption would halt global manufacturing and the supply of many things.
With Putin probably mentally deficient its impossible to predict what will happen next. Everyone assumes Russia will occupy Ukraine.
I think there's a chance he will flatten the place, declare mission accomplished and walk out.
I read an article today pointing out that anti-China sentiment, sanctions against China or even a global depression are not what China needs right now.
Their property market and stock market are in huge bubbles right now and could both burst with mild pressure.
They might start some arm-twisting if they decide its in their interests.
OTOH China is so interlocked in the supply of everything and disruption would halt global manufacturing and the supply of many things.
With Putin probably mentally deficient its impossible to predict what will happen next. Everyone assumes Russia will occupy Ukraine.
I think there's a chance he will flatten the place, declare mission accomplished and walk out.
Fuck Israel
iran is back in the fold, saudis and uae are sad bois rn.SuperJail Warden wrote:
U.S. is trying to set up an oil deal with Venezuela.Too bad Trump offed that Iranian general. We could have bought them out too.Venezuela’s authoritarian government on Tuesday released at least two imprisoned Americans, an American official and Venezuelan human rights defenders said, a potential turning point in the Biden administration’s relationship with Russia’s staunchest ally in the Western Hemisphere.
The release followed a rare trip by a high-level U.S. delegation to Venezuela over the weekend to meet with President Nicolás Maduro, part of a broader Biden administration agenda in autocratic countries that may be rethinking their ties with President Vladimir V. Putin in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The talks with Venezuela, which has enormous proven oil reserves, assumed new urgency after President Biden announced Tuesday that the United States would ban Russian oil and gas imports because of the invasion. That move is expected to further tighten the availability of crude oil on the global market, and could raise gas prices at a moment when inflation has climbed at its fastest pace in 40 years.
@zique: this is true, but venezuela isnt trying to have an offensive war and military campaigns cost a lot of money.
@dilbs: china is getting angery at rising oil and wheat prices btw.
Russian oil is selling at $30 per barrel dicsount.
Fuck Israel
yes, well done. but evidently the world’s pundit class didn’t all take undergraduate degrees in IR, did they?Larssen wrote:
Like a decade ago in my undergrad I remember reading several papers that already outlined the ineffectiveness of sanctions.
and putin has just sidestepped about four decades of IR doxa, in any case. let’s not pretend this whole crisis is elementary basics for you. your weird German james bond routine is funny. all you’ve offered so far for your ‘secret intelligence’ is re-microwaved bellingcat.
Did you stub your toe this morning?
i mean, make a point, rather than saying 'we read about sanctions in school'.
so sanctions are clearly insufficient to bring about any intended resolution, yet it seems most of the west are holding their breath and hoping putinism spontaneously collapses, or something. what's the real likely course of action here?
so sanctions are clearly insufficient to bring about any intended resolution, yet it seems most of the west are holding their breath and hoping putinism spontaneously collapses, or something. what's the real likely course of action here?
If the intended purpose of sanctions is regime change, it doesn't work, and there's many decades of examples which prove the point. Don't need a degree to see that.
If the intended purpose is to bleed the russian economy and complicate their ability to sustain the war effort, it is effective.
In any case if I don't make a point it's because a. unlike you I do work fulltime or b. because I don't want to/shouldn't.
Of course you're going to get 'recycled bellingcat' from me at best. It's not as if I'm going to FW: my outlook inbox to bf2s. To put your mind at ease though bellingcat is a pretty good source, as I've said before, and open source stuff will provide a comprehensive picture of everything that's going on.
If the intended purpose is to bleed the russian economy and complicate their ability to sustain the war effort, it is effective.
In any case if I don't make a point it's because a. unlike you I do work fulltime or b. because I don't want to/shouldn't.
Of course you're going to get 'recycled bellingcat' from me at best. It's not as if I'm going to FW: my outlook inbox to bf2s. To put your mind at ease though bellingcat is a pretty good source, as I've said before, and open source stuff will provide a comprehensive picture of everything that's going on.
i also work full-time ... dilbert is the unemployed one.
and i'm just saying, the tone of 'you guys know nothing, i know the secrets' and then linking bellingcat-level blog posts is not a very convincing international-man-of-espionage act.
if this war drags out for several years, why won't the sanctions just lead russia into tighter inter-dependence and trade with china? china and russia have payment systems, sources of funding, import/exports, etc, enough to sustain them. we are just driving a wedge between one superpower bloc and another and creating a multipolar world. and nothing to say that it'll stop the bloodshed of 100,000s of ukrainians in the meantime.
and i'm just saying, the tone of 'you guys know nothing, i know the secrets' and then linking bellingcat-level blog posts is not a very convincing international-man-of-espionage act.
if this war drags out for several years, why won't the sanctions just lead russia into tighter inter-dependence and trade with china? china and russia have payment systems, sources of funding, import/exports, etc, enough to sustain them. we are just driving a wedge between one superpower bloc and another and creating a multipolar world. and nothing to say that it'll stop the bloodshed of 100,000s of ukrainians in the meantime.
It's hilarious how your imagination around my person becomes more grandiose over time. HE WINKED I TELL YAthe tone of 'you guys know nothing, i know the secrets' and then linking bellingcat-level blog posts is not a very convincing international-man-of-espionage act.
The blogposts of the institute of the study of war are quality. Many years ago when I worked for a refugee organisation researching country of origin information, they were one of my best sources on the war in syria. I had ISW references worked in supporting documentation for asylum cases up to our 'supreme court'. Their posts still are generally good. You wanted good open source stuff, there it is.
Last edited by Larssen (2022-03-09 04:48:23)
i certainly don't have grandiose illusions about your person. especially after you wrote and deleted a memoir of your childhood on here.
thanks, i'll check these. i was previously reading the afore-linked blogposts of the prof. from KCL's war studies department.The blogposts of the institute of the study of war are quality.
Last edited by uziq (2022-03-09 05:09:56)
- SuperJail Warden
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Again, sanctions don't just encourage regime change. Sanctions also limit a country's capability to harass their neighbors and threaten regional security. Venezuela is sitting on a huge stockpile of oil but wasn't able to convert it into large amounts of military equipment like Saudi Arabia, Syria, etc.
Extreme sanctions on Russia will make it harder for Russia to replace the billions of dollars in military equipment they lost in Ukraine so far. It will make it harder for Russia to maintain a new regime in Ukraine too.
Extreme sanctions on Russia will make it harder for Russia to replace the billions of dollars in military equipment they lost in Ukraine so far. It will make it harder for Russia to maintain a new regime in Ukraine too.
right. but what are the possible consequences of putin’s failure to achieve his objectives? are we going to reckon with the actual endgame and outcome of ukraine? a nuclear-armed autocracy isn’t going to back down consequent to its economy being wiped out.