Larssen
Member
+99|2128

uziq wrote:

i mean, yeah, their logistics and organization has been chaotic. but the belarusian border is less than a day away from kyiv. it's not like resupply is a huge problem.

i reckon their military hardware is super poorly maintained. probably have far fewer mechanics and much poorer maintenance routines than would be seen in other top-tier forces.

everyone in the EU/UK is talking up how many NLAWs and ATGMs we're putting into ukraine. lol. the ukrainian army is basically an infantry-only force. a quick google tells me that russia have 13,500 battle tanks and 20,000-30,000 armoured vehicles. that's gonna take a lot of ukrainians edging around broken walls with shoulder-mounted boom tubes. even if there's a high level of wear-and-tear in the russian hardware.
Russian army logistics start to become complicated if the advance heads out more than 90-180km away from the logistic support. There's an article somewhere about this, but the gist is that logistic support brigades in the russian army are not proportional to combat brigades and that supply lines away from train tracks and airfields aren't very well organised as a result. Accounting for the amount of trucks, how much you can fit in one, the average speed at which you can reasonably travel through combat zones (+unloading/loading times) and the operational needs at the front.

It sounds ridiculous but every battallion tactical group has serious artillery support, and those most of all require very well organised supply lines. Bulky missiles and other large ordnance are the biggest issue as it's heavy and you can fit relatively few in a truck.

Last edited by Larssen (2022-03-01 12:16:21)

SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3960
Anyhow, the western response...good or bad so far? Like I said, I am happy for us to give all the weapons we can to Ukraine. We should also cut off Russia from our economic system as much as we can. Only thing we haven't done so far that we should: increase domestic oil production, green energy and nuclear adoption too. Drive down the price of energy to further disrupt Russia's economy. We should also take in a lot of refugees.

I don't want a no-fly zone or something. Russia is a nuclear power after all and that is still significant. Do you think if Russia wasn't a nuclear power we would have done a Gulf War in Europe?
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3960
I said I liked the brief surge of patriotism but I struggle to think of the ways this grand crusade against Russia will lead to material benefits for the average American. Perhaps it is greedy of me and this is a moment where we need national sacrifice to protect democracy and the way of blah blah blah. A lot of it is blah blah blah. The difference in way of life between Russians and Americans is tiny compared to say Americans and Saudi Arabians. Not really feeling under threat at the moment.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+496|3693
it's not so much 'liberal democracy' that's under threat as the rules-based international order.

as soon as big states with big militaries start swinging their dicks around and subscribing to a 'might is right' doctrine, the law-based order goes out the window and the world reverts to state of bigger powers bullying and seizing the territory of smaller powers.

taiwan is culturally alien to western liberal democracies too, and yet it's a thing worth fighting for.

as soon as china/russia/etc see that they can take what they want and the previous rules-based order has no organized response, you can bet they'll be disposed to keep taking bigger bites. the whole global order, and with it its stability and prosperity, goes out the window.
Larssen
Member
+99|2128
The very problem is that much of what you're all reading about should've been clandestine activities. I've never seen a proxy war conducted so brazenly. Any diplomatic effort would've already been hideously complicated and has now been rendered almost if not totally impossible. Even if we sidestep the emotions involved, I can't see any sort of compromise being on the table for a long time.

There's much more to write, but I'll leave it at that. Also refer my earlier post.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7013|PNW

uziq wrote:

uziq wrote:

re: "precision bombing", i really do think that several decades of war, going back to gulf war I, has inured and lulled americans to sleep with this phrase. they've all been going to bed at night gently self-deluding themselves that their fantastic, space-age 'precision' munitions are dropping bombs directly on Bad People's heads and making them go 'poof!' into non-existence. and not, er, you know, dropping huge high-pressure munitions on urban centres full of innocent bystanders, sometimes based off very shaky intelligence.
addendum to this, from a tweet earlier:

“ i can't believe americans are seriously getting into nuclear war prepper stuff after spending the last two years being mentally unable to cope with wearing a cloth mask while in line at Dunkin's. how have we not updated our delusions??”

haha.
My two cents on that, we never stopped having preppers. They were being made fun of before covid, and during covid where some of the same people would freak out about being told to mask up.

I don't think it's a bad thing to do. Having a bunker or basement with at least a modicum of emergency supplies can be useful in a non-apocalyptic natural disaster. Government entities even recommend having emergency plans and supplies for things that could happen. It's just too bad the ability to do so is quite restricted. People can't even afford homes, let alone homes with basements or bunker installations. How are you going to keep a bunch of extra crap in a studio apartment? Best you could manage is one of those "bug-out" packs.

People who already had Costco packs of toilet paper got to skip much if not all of the covid TP panic.

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Even if they do take Kiev.
The idea that you can pacify a country by taking the capital is very old fashioned I think.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6347|eXtreme to the maX

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Anyhow, the western response...good or bad so far? Like I said, I am happy for us to give all the weapons we can to Ukraine. We should also cut off Russia from our economic system as much as we can. Only thing we haven't done so far that we should: increase domestic oil production, green energy and nuclear adoption too. Drive down the price of energy to further disrupt Russia's economy. We should also take in a lot of refugees.
Britain is still pathetic, multiple top-level oligarchs still not sanctioned, we need to seize every cent of currency and any other asset they hold in Britain and make them give a good argument for why they should get them back.

I'm sure the current gutless effort is allowing them to quietly spirit it all away, which would suit Johnson nicely.

Larssen wrote:

Even if we sidestep the emotions involved, I can't see any sort of compromise being on the table for a long time.
I don't think there ever was the chance of one, whatever we did Putin was going in, whatever we do now Putin will keep going unless he personally is removed.
I'm sure a tactical nuclear strike on the Kremlin or wherever Putin is hiding is on the table. If the Russian people rise up he may take out the world with him, we need to be ready for that.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3693
a tactical … nuclear strike … on the kremlin.

isn’t putin in a bunker in the urals already? that’s where he summoned his oligarchs to this week. 

i think you’ve been watching too many superhero movies.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6347|eXtreme to the maX
OK, the Urals, even better.
Fuck Israel
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6347|eXtreme to the maX

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

I didn't change avatars, signatures (certainly not calling Putin 'gay' as an insult), or anything else in my social media.
I was hoping to bring in some Russian bots to enliven the discussion.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3693

Dilbert_X wrote:

OK, the Urals, even better.
he’s in a bunker in the urals for the same reason that NORAD is in the mountains. because it’s way out of reach of a nuke.

put down the tom clancy and have a morning banana. you’re crotchety.
Larssen
Member
+99|2128
Don't be ridiculous, of course a nuclear first strike isn't on the table. Not on any table anywhere.

The diplomatic approach does not assume that you will be able to somehow talk the Russians out of this conflict after a mere 6 days. Sadly, once fighting starts, you often need to wait for a conflict to hit certain phases in its development, preferably a stalemate, at which point diplomacy becomes a realistic option. In any case both sides need to come to the conclusion that military means will not in the end deliver the desired political results. Either because a conclusive victory is impossible, because victory would come at unacceptable cost, or for other reasons.

Once at that diplomatic table, for any solution to be possible, both parties need to also be able to walk out with a narrative that is acceptable to them and their respective political constituents.

All of this has become much more unlikely because of recent events. On our end it is fine and completely reasonable to set the goal that Russia should not be allowed to achieve its penultimate objectives through military force, and there's many various ways to go about frustrating their effort. But it would demonstrate some manner of foresight if those activities were kept secret from both the public and the Russians (even if it were a badly kept secret). In the end the Ukrainian war must be resolved in a negotiation that concludes the withdrawal of Russian forces under whatever conditions. Our goal is not to 'demilitarise Russia' or 'destroy the Russian state', though I'm under the impression some deluded politicians DO consider that their objective. The war in Ukraine, if defeat already wasn't an option for Putin, then becomes about the survival of Putin's state and himself.

In this situation, I can't see a political way out for either him or for us. While I hope this will change once the rage of the past week dies down and we're farther along in what's happening, I'm also reminded of Khrushchev's letter about 'knots of war'.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7013|PNW

Er,

In the meme chart that goes from small, dull brain to brilliant galaxy brain, "nuking Russia" as a solution to all this is walnut brain. I'd be surprised if even the dope who told millennials we had no experience of nuclear threat (in the cold war, lol) would suggest that. And even if he did, it would hardly be of much vindication for you Dilbs. You're in your 50s, right? How do you even suggest nuking anyone with a straight face? A return to nightmare.
uziq
Member
+496|3693
something has upset our erstwhile CAD Dirac. he’s posting all out of sorts today. lost his equilibrium.

they get like that at that age. funny turns.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6347|eXtreme to the maX
Between the entire western world getting nuked and Putin getting vapourised you can bet that option is being updated every 15 minutes.

Putin has made it crystal clear time and again he is not interested in diplomacy. His strong-man image and position depends on caving to no-one, otherwise he knows he'll end up castrated and towed behind a truck.
Fuck Israel
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3960
Why do any of you even worry about nuclear war? I live near NYC. I am only one going to die in a first strike. Nobody is going to nuke Australia.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+496|3693
in a full exchange a few submarines have enough warheads to take out every major city.

i’m sure north korea would have a pop at seoul as soon as their chinese/russian foster parents went all in.

shan’t happen and dilbert’s thinking really is starting to turn to a marvel-based mulch.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3960
Before the invasion I wondered 'how many people are walking around right now with no idea they are going to die in this war?' Thinking it over, it could be us. You go 31 years in life expecting to someday grow old, marry, have children etc. but instead some manlet blows up the world because reasons
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/11/13/1415848000647_wps_62_Height_table_preview_jpg.jpg
He is probably so angry because he is short. Short people are angry people.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3960
https://i.imgur.com/fGo1g39.png
Try it on your phone or desktop and see. People want to know why.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7013|PNW

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Why do any of you even worry about nuclear war? I live near NYC. I am only one going to die in a first strike. Nobody is going to nuke Australia.
As long as we're talking about theoretical risks:

https://i1.wp.com/www.operationmilitarykids.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/military-bases-in-washington-state.jpg?fit=600%2C434&ssl=1

… as well as the usual targeted production, infrastructure, civilian population centers. Anyway, it's not something I'm expecting will happen. Stuff like Dilbert with his "just tactical nuke the Kremlin" should be utterly mocked.

Side note, (flawed) movies like Deterrence I think were meant to highlight the grim nature of nuclear war, but hawks who saw it were all like "America, #*& ya!"



Obviously meant to be a heavy and emotional scene. The music, the character reactions, solemnity, etc. This character resigned from office shortly thereafter. Meanwhile in the uploader's video description:

Don't mess with America!
Probably not the intended take here.

There were people calling for nukes during the Gulf War and post 9/11 fighting as well. "Just glass 'em!" Ugh.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3960
I remember somebody on 9/11 holding a sign on the corner with the words "Drop the bomb".
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7013|PNW

The fervor really was capitalized on, wasn't it.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3960
People were also driving up and down the main avenue in my hometown waving flags, honking their horns at the people holding patriotic signs. I live literally outside of NYC and I guess people felt like that is something they could do to help? I don't know.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7013|PNW

It was Giuliani's moment in the spotlight of "heroism" before his Trumpian fall from grace and melting on camera like the wicked witch of the west.

Political capital jackpot.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3960
Rudy was always a piece of shit. People would probably have forgotten about all of the stuff and never critically reexamined it if he didn't get involved with Trump.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg

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