SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3962
We should create a buffer zone in west Ukraine to protect NATO's border.

If Russia didn't have nuclear weapons this would be like the perfect opportunity to flex our military. This is basically a Gulf War situation and we did well at that.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+496|3694
lol 'if russia didn't have nukes'. so, in other words, if the 20th century didn't happen. pretty big 'IF'.

Last edited by uziq (2022-02-26 11:38:32)

SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3962
It is the Jew's fault for giving the communist our nuclear secrets. Dilbert can fill you in.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7014|PNW

SuperJail Warden wrote:

We should create a buffer zone in west Ukraine to protect NATO's border.
NATO and EU states are already directly on Russia's border, and we're already rubbing elbows in the Arctic.

Even a Trumper I know has completely flopped to the Ukraine's side on things. All it took was this invasion.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3962
Ask him about taking Ukrainian refugees.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7014|PNW

People are less interested in taking refugees than in being spectators to valiant stands.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6348|eXtreme to the maX
Amazing fightback by the Ukrainians, I'm glad we sent them a shitload of anti-tank missiles - and are continuing to do so apparently.

Relevant, seems to have played out exactly as predicted.
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/13/10728654 … ny-blinken

Interesting that western intel is far better than Russia's - they seemingly believed it would be a walkover and the population would welcome them.

The problem now is:

- Putin appears to be increasingly unhinged.

- Putin is in a corner from which there is now way out without losing face - something his outsize ego isn't going to accept, this is really fucking dangerous. He's already threatened nuclear war and is lashing out at Sweden and Finland. Various countries openly supplying weapons to Ukraine are going to be in his sights

- The US has made it crystal clear they're not going to fight a war with Russia. What about Latvia etc? Does that mean NATO is dead and buried, or at best left to the British and French?

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-02-26 23:23:47)

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SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3962
NATO will not and should not fight over a non-NATO country. You can't buy insurance after an accident.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3962
https://i.redd.it/a35nye7mq8k81.png
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+496|3694
i am really confused by the way it’s all playing out. 

amazing fight back by the ukrainians? well … yes. but where’s the invasion? russia seem to have only sent in a bunch of poorly supported 19yo conscripts in their soviet-era rubbish tech.

the vast majority of their numbers are still on the borders. 100s of helis lined up on belarusian roads. why are they hanging back so much if a quick and decisive regime change was the aim?

seeing lots of news about putin requesting more cannon fodder from kazakhstan, sending in mercenaries from chechnya, etc. why? russia have battle-hardened units from syria/the sahel/etc. where’s all the elite paratroopers or at least cutting-edge tech? why are there only shitty old trucks and 1970s BMPs being found burnt out in cities?

why are there armoured columns running out of fuel or aimlessly being ambushed on ukrainian roads? not 100km from the border and their supply lines? it’s not like they’re over-extended. fuel shouldn’t be more than 2 hrs away. you’re telling me that these forces were drilling in the region for weeks prior to this but suddenly forgot how to put petrol in a tank?

lots of videos floating around of captured russian POWs. not only are they young, mostly kids on their obligatory military service, but many of them claim they had no idea they were being tasked with an invasion of ukraine. it sounds like they were all out on exercises playing around until suddenly, one day they weren’t. hard to verify and believe any videos put out for propagandistic purposes, etc, etc, i know. captured troops not the best witnesses. but still.

there’s lots of talk of ‘the ukrainians winning’ but it still seems totally wishful to me. like this conflict is currently at 5% volume. russia could flatten their cities if they actually wished. they have overwhelming supremacy in terms of materiel. where is ‘the invasion’? by now i’d assume that they’d have gone for the critical infrastructure, knocked out the power grid, scrambled communications, etc, and steamrolled it.

it’s all very odd. not at all what you’d expect from one of the world’s largest militaries.

Last edited by uziq (2022-02-27 00:03:46)

SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3962
The American intelligence services, who called it right the first time, believe that the Russians didn't expect the level of resistance they are facing. They thought the country would collapse like Afghanistan. Entirely possible that the whole thing is a debacle at Russia's HQ.

What they have readied for this Ukraine operation, they won't be able to take and hold the entire country. We invaded Iraq, a geographically smaller country/half as populous as Ukraine and poorer, with a little bit more troops than the Russians have around Ukraine. Iraq was a multiyear disaster. 3 million Americans had to serve in Iraq during the occupation period. And the Iraqis weren't being openly given heavy weapons, intelligence, cash, etc. from essentially the richest places in the world.


I think it is entirely possible that Putin believed his own hype and blundered his country into quagmire.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3962
Also, the Ukraine foreign minister put out a call for foreign fighters a few hours ago. Prospects need to contact their local embassies for information.

I saw a headline in the Atlantic about how the U.S. needs to build an insurgency in Ukraine. Ukraine is going to turn into Syria with foreign fighters from all over. Well supported foreign fighters.

Crazy
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6348|eXtreme to the maX
It seems Putin believed it would be a doddle and Ukraine would welcome them as liberators, just as the, er, Russian plants in Donbas welcomed the liberation of the land they'd invaded by their fellow Russians.

Either Putin is mad or someone has been feeding him bogus intel - drug-addicted Nazis? Where did that come from?

Otherwise the range of the average armoured vehicle isn't that much on internal fuel which they use a hell of a lot of so supply lines are in fact important.

This is about what is needed to keep 10 T72 tanks going for a day

https://sc01.alicdn.com/kf/HTB1nYs7OVXXXXXRapXXq6xXFXXXO/200001376/HTB1nYs7OVXXXXXRapXXq6xXFXXXO.jpg

So if they calculated for two days and they're coming up to 3-4 that does throw a spanner in the works.

I'm sure NATO are giving Ukraine top notch highly detailed intel minute by minute which will be a big help, plus with man-portable weapons one man can take out a $2m tank or $30m aircraft in one hit.  This is a colossal defence advantage which Russia probably didn't factor in, surprising when it was Stingers and Milans which knocked Russia out of Afghanistan. Also aren't these the exact weapons Trump tried to block from Ukraine?

On the other hand Russia could level the whole country, they might be just about to, what then?
Pariah status indefinitely, and they'd have to occupy a ruined country indefinitely.
Having got away with it in Chechnya, MH17, chemical assassinations across Europe with no repercussions at all presumably Putin thought it wouldn't be a big deal, if Ukraine had rolled over - which TBH is what I expected - we'd have already forgotten about it.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-02-27 00:58:07)

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uziq
Member
+496|3694
that’s what i mean. i do understand how they underprepared initially. how the swift taking of the airports etc failed. i get that part. but russia still have a huge military buildup that they’re not using.

kyiv could be another grozny. russia didn’t fuck around in chechnya. why the soft touch here? obviously i don’t want to see that — just confused about how such an ‘invasion’ is playing out.

as for fuel lines and armoured supply, yada yada. but what armed force in the world just sends tanks or BMPs out, unaccompanied and totally unsupported? shouldn’t these things be deploying alongside air and infantry to stop them getting ambushed so easily? why are there so many videos of like, lone tanks or convoys of 3-4 trucks being wiped out? don’t militaries precisely know how to field these units? i thought russians were fearsome experts in big-scale armour warfare.

Last edited by uziq (2022-02-27 01:15:00)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6348|eXtreme to the maX
- Ukraine decided to fight

- They had ~3000 state of the art anti-tank missiles, and however many anti-aircraft missiles, ready to go and deployed, most of them delivered and the training done in the two weeks prior. These are total game-changers and a whole order of magnitude better than the unguided and inaccurate RPGs which defeated America in Somalia and Iraq.

Russia probably expected neither

What happens now - fuck knows, its a very dangerous situation. Putin won't take a defeat and its largely Britain which will have delivered it.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3694
britain delivered a defeat? lol what.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6348|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

russia still have a huge military buildup that they’re not using.
They could throw them in and have them all knocked out. What then for Russia?
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uziq
Member
+496|3694
well russia is finished as a power if this continues in a slow-trickle ignominious defeat anyway, aren’t they? anything short of the nuclear option is not going to carry the cold war-era fear that it once did. we’ve now seen them deploy their forces unilaterally on an innocent nation and have seen them be repelled. the damage to the putin regime, coupled with the rest of the world’s resolve, are going to be fatal.

the failure and quagmire in afghanistan was a huge contributing event to the loss of morale and economic decline of the USSR.

Last edited by uziq (2022-02-27 01:22:18)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6348|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

britain delivered a defeat? lol what.
https://kyivindependent.com/national/wh … o-ukraine/

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-invas … e-12520950

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/26/uk … ics-biden/

Pretty sure the biggest and most effective contribution at this point has been by Britain.

Putin is not going to forget this.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3694
i’m well-aware of our supplying and training efforts. still seems a bit much to say ‘britain have carried this’.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6348|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

well russia is finished as a power if this continues in a slow-trickle ignominious defeat anyway, aren’t they? anything short of the nuclear option is not going to carry the cold war-era fear that it once did. we’ve now seen them deploy their forces unilaterally on an innocent foe and have seen them be repelled. the damage to the putin regime, coupled with the rest of the world’s resolve, are going to be fatal.
Exactly, the question is what is Putin going to do in the last minutes before he blows his brains out?

If we're lucky there'll be a Russian coup. If not Britain has a problem.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3694
also isn’t the javelin system, erm, american? lots of other arms are flooding into ukraine from other european states now germany have finally got off their FDR-era fence.

seems really a bit much to claim it’s the gallant brits carrying the conflict.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6348|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

i’m well-aware of our supplying and training efforts. still seems a bit much to say ‘britain have carried this’.
Without this help Ukraine would already be defeated. Molotov cocktails are much less effective than the very latest missiles.

https://tabuksite.files.wordpress.com/2022/01/27788358_537822446604430_8821078979585036114_o.jpg?w=1024
https://www.saab.com/products/nlaw

https://media.istockphoto.com/photos/man-attack-with-molotov-cocktail-picture-id946081822?k=20&m=946081822&s=170667a&w=0&h=sroUdFxxjbE7yxy86DROIxvdgT11thyZP-Apd43m6tQ=

Britain supplied 2,000 NLAW, America 300 Javelin - to begin with anyway.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-02-27 01:30:41)

Fuck Israel
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6348|eXtreme to the maX
Fuck yeah

Fuck Israel
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+641|3962
A million people died of Chinese Bat Flu. Putin getting coup'd or overthrown after starting a big failed war isn't stranger than anything else lately.

Ukrainians and Russians are too close in culture for people in Russia to stomach mass killing. The Muslims in Chechnya or Syria don't count as people. Can you imagine how people would feel here if we invaded Canada on Sleepy Joe's whim?
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg

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