Where are all the whiny peaceful "Enlightened" European now?

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Where are all the whiny peaceful "Enlightened" European now?

2022-02-25 07:25:24

#1476

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

uziq wrote:
haven't they just secured an airfield or two on the outskirts of kiev? that means lots more APCs and support for an assault on the city?

Russian airborne landed by helicopter in the first hours of the war. Russian ground forces didn't link up in time and Ukraine took back the airport. I haven't heard about it today and am not sure if Ukraine lost it again. Apparently a few helicopters were downed trying to resupply the paratroopers.

2022-02-25 07:27:45

#1477

uziq: Member; +518|3812

my whatsapp groups are awash today with forwarded gore and general gruesomeness.

it's strange to think that a generation ago everyone was tuning into neon-green night-vis footage of the first gulf war on CNN. a highly mediated consumer spectacle which occasioned jean baudrillard to write his famous essay on how 'the gulf war didn't occur'.

fast forward today and we're all passively consuming 15 second whatsapp clips of a major conflict, as the russian defense ministry claims 'an invasion is not occurring'.

2022-02-25 07:33:45

#1478

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

Reddit is pretty active though the major combat sub has a new rule to avoid posting videos that could give away Ukrainian defenses.

Everyone, probably Russia included, expected Ukraine to collapse like the Afghans. Instead they are putting up hell of a defense.

2022-02-25 07:41:35

#1479

uziq: Member; +518|3812

that may be so, but what's really salient here is putin's resolve and the fact he has to 'save face'. quick and decisive military campaigns have buoyed and saved his leadership several times in the past (chechnya, georgia, middle-east, etc). seeing as this decision seems to almost entirely rest on him, you can bet he's going to authorize all sorts of shit to break the ukrainians' resolve.

2022-02-25 08:07:23

#1480

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

This invasion is much more politically fraught than anything in the past. Russia's economy is going to keep getting hammered. Russians are dying fighting people who are very close in culture to Russians. It is like America invading Canada. Russia totally leveling Russian adjacent cities while casualties pile up and the economy degrades can lead to the overthrow of Putin's regime. Protest in Russia are already taking place.

Putin getting overthrown trying to conquer Ukraine is a distant possibility. But an ill advised military campaign ended the Romanovs. After the world got leveled by Chinese bat flu, it is hard to imagine anything in the world really being secure.

2022-02-25 08:12:24

#1481

uziq: Member; +518|3812

the question remains who can depose putin in the one-party state he has built. the media, police, rural peasant opinion, etc, backs him.

part of the reason he wanted to invade ukraine was because of the presence of a liberal, cosmopolitan, western-friendly, internationalist, etc, neighbour on his doorstep. he's worked hard to extinguish international, outward-looking liberalism at home, by persecuting journalists, opposition figures, prominent international business people, etc.

it was pretty brave to see russians on the streets of st. petersburg, considering the risk to their liberty and fierce clampdowns, but urbanite opinion in moscow/st. petersburg is perhaps as relevant to putin as bostonian's opinions were to donald trump. from our own ignominious recent history, the protests against blair's wars in the middle-east were the largest protests in british history, ever ... and they achieved precisely diddly squat. in a democratic society.

the whole line that ukraine is 'nazi' is so funny and bogus. of the represented far-right groups in ukraine, i think only one right-affiliated party has a single seat in their parliament. they have a lower representation in elective ukrainian politics than the far-right does in russia. plenty of photos circulating online of 'ultras' and nazi russian troopers, too, bearing all the usual tattoos.

Last edited by uziq (2022-02-25 08:21:47)

2022-02-25 08:38:14

#1482

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

The 1917 Revolution started when sailors in Petrograd mutinied. A military coup, again, is very unlikely. The thing that the anti-Trump and anti-Iraq War going against it was that the our economies were not total shit shows like in Russia right now.

I mentioned before that the "Ukraine is Nazis" thing is silly identity politics.

2022-02-25 09:37:35

#1483

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

This war is so bizarre by modern standards. There are civil wars all the time but two nations so similar in ethnicity, religion, history etc. going to war over nothing...just strange.

Anyhow Pentagon said the Russian advance has slowed but they are worried about Russia getting frustrated and escalating the conflict. Especially since, as Uzique said, Putin can't afford to have this last very long.

2022-02-25 10:00:21

#1484

Larssen: Member; +99|2247

Yesterday was mostly old equipment and poorly trained volunteers executing diversionary incursions. A guess is that the Russians are throwing away expendable people & vehicles to soak up the newly NATO-delivered (mostly US, UK) anti tank and anti air equipment, some vehicles, and to pick these off, before sending in the bulk of the professional army. Seen more of that type of troop movement today, but mostly still in transit. Combat engagement still shows mostly older T-models and BMPs along roadsides which you can see plenty social media videos of. If you see aerial support close to troop movements and combat, that indicates professional units that have the right equipment & training to execute those sorts of advancements. Most bombardments have still been behind enemy lines and not nearly as heavy as they could be.

They're also holding off from urban combat save for in the east it seems, but it's likely those are still separatist/volunteer troops with russian supplies instead of the russians themselves.

By now it looks like occupying terrain/cities isn't necessarily a priority, there's a worrying buildup of forces towards Kiev though. Most critical infrastructure remains intact, perhaps to ensure a smooth transition. Maybe Putin wants to force a surrender, there's been Ukrainian offers for discussions at the political level.

Last edited by Larssen (2022-02-25 10:05:07)

2022-02-25 11:13:17

#1485

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

Based on statements from U.S. officials, Russia's offensive is stalling because they didn't expect such resistance. I don't particularly buy the "they sent in the cannon fodder first. Big offensive coming up." Would be awfully dumb to gamble the lives of paratroopers on the cannon fodder. I think the more likely answer is that Russia didn't expect resistance and it got a lot of their people killed when they couldn't adjust quick enough.

That said, you probably know more than me though Uzique is right that you called it wrong before the war. You are like Dr. F. saying we don't need facemasks in January 2020

2022-02-25 11:20:35

#1486

uziq: Member; +518|3812

getting the call wrong on such an insane and incomprehensible situation is fine. we are all just spitballing.

what i find really strange is claiming to be privy to some next-level intelligence, or claiming expertise, when the US-UK intelligence services have been announcing putin’s plans all along lol. like the intelligence community specifically are the ones who have been briefing the press all along about an intended invasion. so to get the call wrong when you actually work in those circles is a real headscratcher. must be something i’m missing.

2022-02-25 11:24:02

#1487

Larssen: Member; +99|2247

Above is open source verifiable and based on exchanges with colleagues. I'd reckon they will both agree/disagree with those statements; agree that resistance is better than it would've been long ago, disagree that russians are in any way on the backfoot. I don't pay particular heed to the public statements right now on developments on the ground as much.

Fact is you're not going to find burned out T90s, BMP3s, modern artillery, VALs with the right specs from any pictures on the ground right now. This strongly implies they're held in reserve. Air strikes and aformentioned combination with troop advancement has also not been deployed, which is another good indicator.

There are other factors involved in why so many countries missed the mark in their assessment that I won't go into but which you can probably derive from news reports here and there.

2022-02-25 11:35:48

#1488

Larssen: Member; +99|2247

uziq wrote:
getting the call wrong on such an insane and incomprehensible situation is fine. we are all just spitballing.

what i find really strange is claiming to be privy to some next-level intelligence, or claiming expertise, when the US-UK intelligence services have been announcing putin’s plans all along lol. like the intelligence community specifically are the ones who have been briefing the press all along about an intended invasion. so to get the call wrong when you actually work in those circles is a real headscratcher. must be something i’m missing.

I do claim expertise because I'm a national security advisor for a government in the EU and directly involved in this. That's the only time I'll answer directly. As for intelligence, you'd be out of your mind to think I'd share anything of the sort here. Besides, that usually covers specific political-strategic information relevant to my area of work, not tactical on the ground stuff. My posts I'm inferring from what you can see and confirm from your home computer.

2022-02-25 11:40:55

#1489

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

Don't admit to being a national security advisor. Instead say you work at a Hot Topic.

2022-02-25 11:42:02

#1490

uziq: Member; +518|3812

he’s a rent boy. he takes shots in the mouth ouhhhh

2022-02-25 11:50:09

#1491

Larssen: Member; +99|2247

If that's what makes u happy. I'll remind you of this line of response whenever you write that you edit papers pertaining to xyz topics

Last edited by Larssen (2022-02-25 11:50:24)

2022-02-25 11:58:38

#1492

Larssen: Member; +99|2247

SuperJail Warden wrote:
Don't admit to being a national security advisor. Instead say you work at a Hot Topic.

For all you know I clean the toilets

2022-02-25 12:09:56

#1493

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

You clean the toilets at a Hot Topic. That's your new cover, 007.

2022-02-25 12:40:59

#1494

uziq: Member; +518|3812

Larssen wrote:
If that's what makes u happy. I'll remind you of this line of response whenever you write that you edit papers pertaining to xyz topics

i mean if you’re privy to top secret info then how are you getting it so wrong? i said i’m open to missing something from this picture. it is prima facie puzzling.

you literally winked and hinted strongly that you knew putin wouldn’t invade or something. 12 hours later he invades. lol.

speaking of dysfunctional and self-fancying eurocrats, it gave me a shiver of schadenfreude today to see donald tusk raging at germany and italy. the man who had been hired to present a ‘united europe’ face to the rowdy brits. lol. why is it that the EU tries to justify itself as necessary in times of great crisis … and then whenever is confronted by a crisis that could genuinely benefit from their bloc, such as the new pandemic or a new war, they singularly fail to form a united front and take decisive action? it’s almost parodic. germany, italy and france all hummming over full sanctions on russia. lol. about as much use as a chocolate teapot cast by the finest belgian chocolatier.

2022-02-25 12:54:33

#1495

Larssen: Member; +99|2247

'He literally winked!'

Didnt know it took that little to give you a hard on you closet gay you.

The only ones who got it really right were the americans. And considering some historical context (snowden, wmd's, other examples), you may be able to infer that trust in their judgment isn't without reservations.

My statement, because you can't read, was an expected occupation of the donbas with missile strikes and air raids in government controlled ukraine. Many pundits and news outlets predicted the same outcome, based on their connections and the assessments those provided.

Last edited by Larssen (2022-02-25 12:55:32)

2022-02-25 16:43:57

#1496

unnamednewbie13: Moderator; +2,068|7131|PNW

uziq wrote:
Former US presidents on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

Clinton: “Brazen violation”

GWB: “The gravest security crisis on the European continent since World War II”

Obama: “A brazen attack on the people of Ukraine, in violation of international law”

Trump: “That’s pretty smart”

and the funniest thing is ... half the republican base agree with him.

The Trump Republican party is an enduring embarrassment.

2022-02-26 09:16:58

#1497

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

https://youtu.be/z77JFw2D6f8

"Simpson predicated the war"

2022-02-26 09:54:59

#1498

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4079

77% of CNN viewers want to be war man's.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMiFXdxXEAE4Wdl?format=jpg&name=large

2022-02-26 11:01:32

#1499

Larssen: Member; +99|2247

People are idiots. God forbid some acne riddled fatso in a basement somewhere who's self-styled 'anonymous' ends up unleashing ransomware on russian critical infrastructure.

2022-02-26 11:05:39

#1500

uziq: Member; +518|3812

agree. the desire for war is ridiculous. americans of all people should not be hawkish. has america fulfilled her military objectives in a single conflict since korea or some central american banana republic?

which isn’t to say that attempts to save democracy or a country’s independence are stupid. i mean to say that the american public’s relationship to war seems to be especially fantastical and detached from reality. it always seems to be something done far away to foes who pose no real threat. americans are seriously deluded about real war.

Last edited by uziq (2022-02-26 11:07:33)

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uziq wrote:

uziq wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Larssen wrote:

uziq wrote:

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