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Larssen
Member
+81|1056
and yet I don't think we're nearly there yet. Yes, the cracks in the system are obvious, but during the pandemic the structure of the states and democracy has remained remarkably intact. Markets aren't doing anything but going up, with no forecast really predicting its impending demise. Employment numbers have remained more or less healthy. The migration crisis and concept of cultural war that dominated 2000-2016 appears mostly abated. The public's priorities in politics have shifted more towards issues like the environment, housing, healthcare, EU policies. Brexit stopped most '-exit' movements in their tracks. Don't get me wrong, there's still significant segments voting identity politics across the board, but their voices aren't as dominating as before esp. without the massive perceived 'outsider threat' in the form of refugees and terrorism that motivated people before. Identity debates now are more about national emancipation of minorities or LHBT.

Truth be told I don't necessarily see that crisis coming, not yet and not for a few more decades if things remain as they are. There will be some rumbles in the financial system when the ECB inevitably ups the interest rates and stops all the borrowing. There will be growing income inequality, as there is nothing stopping this development nationally or globally. There may be protests. But as long as most people retain their jobs & a semi-comfortable existence, revolution isn't necessarily on our doorstep.

re; I was referring to the foucauldian epistèmè <-> paradigm. Not epistemology.

Last edited by Larssen (2022-01-14 11:09:14)

uziq
Member
+439|2621
insupportable levels of income equality tend to correct themselves, sometimes via a ‘snap’, foreseen or not. there’s a reason all those billionaires are building survivalist redoubts in northern california or montana.

i’m not overly apocalyptic about this. i just think people’s faith in the political system we have is at an all-time low. politicians have lost all credibility. they can’t even steer us properly through crises of life and death - surely the most basic form of legitimation for any state power.
Larssen
Member
+81|1056
As far as the continent goes the only real immediate worries I see are the positions of Hungary and Poland politically and the south financially still. Though neither issue appears to be in the realm that I could conscionably say that the existing system can't figure out a solution of sorts that allows it to plod along for a while longer.

As for income inequality, lately I've been considering it possible that we're seeing the creation of a new semi-aristocracy than that this development will be stopped or overturned somehow, sadly. It's worth looking at the times when great income inequality really caused societal upheaval; usually it meant a sizeable part of the population literally living in squalor and poverty. Despite the ginormous wealth gap, I'm not seeing that, and most of all the worst manifestations of that inequality are not within but outside the west's borders.

Last edited by Larssen (2022-01-14 11:23:29)

SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+528|2889
The United States is going to end up like Brazil someday.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+439|2621
a high percentage of the poor american underclass support storming the capitol building, armed insurrection, and otherwise believe in completely reality-denying conspiracy theories. i wouldn’t be so sure. these people are still going to be a very large voting bloc in 2024.

e: in response to larssen.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-14 11:24:56)

Larssen
Member
+81|1056
I can't account for the situation in the united states and wherever the fuck that is going. I'm hoping Trump was an anomaly.
Larssen
Member
+81|1056
Another factor to consider by the way is that the controlling power of the state over its population has increased manyfold as compared to other historical moments. The realistic possibility of violent insurrection in states with strong bureaucracies and a high level of digital development is tiny. Our technological advancements of recent decades especially favour authoritarianism. I've never read Harari but I heard he's of the same opinion.

Not to say the west will devolve into authoritarian dictatorship, not at all. But attempts at using physical violence as a means to enact systemic change is highly unlikely to succeed. The government system will hit back immediately, and its communicative and intelligence gathering abilities will (a) sway public opinion, (b) probably destroy any attempt at insurrection before it even occurs.
uziq
Member
+439|2621
harari? are we attending a TED talk? i don't care at all for his 'expertise'.

i personally don't think there will be a violent revolution, either. but i do think it likely there will be some sort of change, an accommodation, to the political status quo. the pandemic is precisely one those flashpoints and a major society-wide stressor.

the orthodoxy that has obtained for the last 15-30 years is already badly out of date. the fact we have just put our backs on a decade of austerity and thin-lipped ordoliberalism talking about the market and national debts ... and now we're suddenly thrust into an era of immense fiscal stimulus and almost unlimited bailouts ... LOL. the last era has already ended, just the powers that be are conveniently not declaring it.
Larssen
Member
+81|1056
well yeah I've noticed that economic logic of the past has been thrown out the window by the professionals. Not sure if the political class is ready to face that reality yet and some might still press on the logic of austerity as though state finances are the same as one's personal finances.

I don't know. I've look at some ECB info and they don't see any problem in the rising inflation as of now and believe it will stabilise this year to healthier levels with barely any change in policy from their part. I don't understand how it works, but I choose to trust their judgment.

Having said so another external gamechanger might be Turkey. Their inflation hit a whopping 33% over a year. That's worrisome.

Last edited by Larssen (2022-01-14 12:02:50)

uziq
Member
+439|2621
well, it works both ways. if there are no major economic fallouts or catastrophes as a consequence of huge fiscal stimulus and central bank money-plugging, then ... er, that surely invalidates every fucking central tenet of the neoliberal religion, doesn't it? no going back.
Larssen
Member
+81|1056
I don't think either of us will be sad to see it go away/evolve. What's next though?
uziq
Member
+439|2621
fully
automated
luxury
communism

and an annual mushroom retreat, funded by the state, for the sake of everyone's ego and sanity, maan.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,765|5275|eXtreme to the maX
I reckon Johnson is done. Its crystal clear he doesn't give a shit about anyone but himself, the nation, following the same rules as everyone else etc.
His fellow Tories, who don't give a shit either, have twigged that the population has twigged and hence their gravy-train could well dry up so they'll get rid of him pronto, very likely before whatever elections are coming up.

The minutiae doesn't even matter, today we learned despite lockdown he was commuting between Chequers and Downing street because his latest pregnant strumpet liked it better there, he's finished and the only question is who will replace him.
There's more to come, the billions handed to chums is just starting to unravel with the 'VIP lane' for contracts being ruled unlawful.

Britain is now proper fucked, Brexit and Covid would be bad enough if handled adeptly, this could easily take a generation to recover from and the economy had already had 10 years of austerity.

I'm just not seeing anyone on either side of govt who isn't a fucking idiot with even the smallest chance of fixing this. Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss? LMAO.
On top of that its a mystery how Britain even has an economy - what does Britain produce which anyone wants? Brexit has fucked the City of London leaving, er, nothing.

Probably time to convert my last pounds, sit tight for five years then go back and live like a king.
Birds Aren't Real
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,765|5275|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FI506byXEAA_3V8?format=jpg&amp;name=small
As a man of science yourself presumably you can see the solid correlation between studying humanities at university, esp Oxford, and being a party-obsessed idiot with an undeveloped brain.

I'm sure I can find a plethora of peer reviewed papers on the subject.
Birds Aren't Real
uziq
Member
+439|2621

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FI506byXEAA_3V8?format=jpg&amp;name=small
As a man of science yourself presumably you can see the solid correlation between studying humanities at university, esp Oxford, and being a party-obsessed idiot with an undeveloped brain.

I'm sure I can find a plethora of peer reviewed papers on the subject.
how many people who study humanities at oxford belong to johnson’s caste? you do realise the majority of undergrads at oxford now are state-educated, right?

the eton->baliol->parliament fast track of yore applies to 1% of students. it applies to a tiny subset of a specific few colleges, even. do you think the oxford english or classics departments are all full of partying, braying public schoolboys from the same 2-3 schools? whilst also managing to be world-leading in reputation and assessment???

i’m sure you can use your impressive imperial degree to run the math, dipshit.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-14 21:35:03)

uziq
Member
+439|2621

Dilbert_X wrote:

Britain is now proper fucked, Brexit and Covid would be bad enough if handled adeptly, this could easily take a generation to recover from and the economy had already had 10 years of austerity.

Brexit has fucked the City of London leaving, er, nothing.

Probably time to convert my last pounds, sit tight for five years then go back and live like a king.
and yet you tacitly supported the whole thing and spent years gloating on the forum that it was the ‘triumph’ of the people over effete, nimby, over-educated, multiculturalists blah blah blah.

i suppose it’s easy to have the courage of, erm, zero convictions when you’re sat in another country and it’s all just market/forex speculation for you. like war with china or repelling russia, you can be the hero of your own adventure long-distance.

you remind me of that category of brexiteer who when polled said they ‘knew it would damage the country economically but still voted Yes’. except, unlike the thicko small business owner who can’t sell his severn whelks and elvers to spanish diners anymore, you don’t even have any skin in the game to lose. pathetic.

hasn’t twigged for you yet how there’s a ‘correlation’ between piss-poor decision making, such as voting for disastrous leadership and a party consumed by cronyism and ineptitude, official mendacity and lies, and the same children who display a populist-xenophobic worldview, has it? highly intelligent behaviour all round.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-14 21:47:23)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,765|5275|eXtreme to the maX
Applies to the PM and half of govt though eh? Dipshit?

How can someone get a 'top level' degree with honours and still be a total fuckwit?

It does call into question the quality no?
Birds Aren't Real
uziq
Member
+439|2621
no, it really does not. elites grease the palms and have the recommendation letters to get into elite schools. shock! horror! systems of privilege and networks of old boys exist! i imagine a great deal of hooray henrys and low-horsepower squirearchical intelligences get into top universities because their headteacher knows a master at magdalene or an old boy at christ church …

plus the public schools now have adapted to the new game (they practically wrote the rules). they are adept at producing the best university entrance examination results in the country. that’s how they justify their enormous cost to fretful upper-middle-class parents who want to secure the best life for their offspring, duh. you pay up and you have to be very dumb indeed to not get top exam marks with their round-the-clock exam care and prep, always on-hand private tutors to nudge a flagging dimwit over the line, etc.

amazing what education can do when you have near-limitless funding.

still it is completely immaterial and a tiny minority when considering ‘oxford humanities’ as a whole, as you are so gladly wont to do.  the simple mathematical fact, champ, is that 95% of graduates to pass through the faculty are just very, very good at humanities, drawn from a global pool and from all social classes. the ruling class fast-track to power is hardly the main show at oxford. it’s 2022 not 1930.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,765|5275|eXtreme to the maX
That explains how people get in, it doesn't explain how they get a degree.
Birds Aren't Real
uziq
Member
+439|2621
bojo graduated in your generation. harangue your own lax standards, when universities really were for a tiny privately educated elite. stop frothing and talking nonsense about ‘humanities people’.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,765|5275|eXtreme to the maX
Er, Oxford and Cambridge were exclusively for the tiny minority, the remainder weren't, not even IC
Birds Aren't Real
uziq
Member
+439|2621
the only people who got into universities in until the early 80s were private school or grammar school. there was literally a huge sluice gate keeping the majority of the great unwashed out of university called the ‘eleven plus’. i’m sure you’ve heard of it.

hence why you could have free university courtesy of the taxpayer. duh.

https://www.closer.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Students-obtaining-university-degrees.png
uziq
Member
+439|2621
in other news, the report which sue gray is compiling about the downing st parties, and on which bojo keeps hiding and deferring … is expected to make broad sweeping criticisms of ‘the drinking culture’ in government.

but i thought alcohol was harmless and could only be good?

reports have it that every friday bojo encouraged his staff at no 10 to let off steam. a junior lackey would be sent to the nearest store with a suitcase to fill with wine bottles. they had a cooler installed in downing street that was weekly stocked with 30-40 bottles.

so whilst everyone else couldn’t even attend their loved one’s funerals, much less have a drink even with members of their own family from without the household, this lot were getting steamed on a weekly basis.

alcohol good !
Larssen
Member
+81|1056
Boris is a bit of an enigma to me. When he's speaking I get the impression that he's obviously not an idiot. Yet he simultaneously manages to be a fucking idiot anyway. Yet he kind of still isn't. One of the weirdest leaders in recent history if you ask me.

As an aside I was just watching some stuff about chequers because I got lost in the internet somewhere and that must be one of the ugliest leadership retreats Ive ever seen.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,951|5941|USA

Putting on a deliberate show of being an idiot for your idiot voters, but you still suck sort of deal. #partygate like the tip of the iceberg

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