uziq
Member
+496|3693
even when covid was ravaging italy (as in, when it was endemic to italy, derp derp), european neighbouring states just stood and watched idly by. no travel restrictions despite scenes of carnage and alarm calls from the italian health service. we knew it was terrible, we knew italians were dying en masse, and yet we kept the borders open and scratched our heads, 'why is italy so uniquely bad at dealing with illness? maybe they're uniquely affected because they live close together with their families and they're corrupt and incompetent? shrug'. the EU didn't even send financial or medical AID to italy, let alone pivot to an emergency pandemic scenario with full lockdowns. again, that's not china's fault.

the idea that the world would have committed immediately to a heavy pandemic response, if ONLY we had the right information or if ONLY china were honest, is pretty fucking fanciful. by all accounts, we failed to implement our own 'robust' pandemic response measures in many cases (US, UK, singular examples of multi-leveled failure), and often times it seemed we didn't even believe the evidence of our own eyes.

the only countries who seemed willing to commit the immense amount of economic resources, make hard political decisions, restrict freedoms, etc, ahead of time were the countries who had recently been taught the painful lessons of sars-2 (e.g. taiwan, korea). for most of the rest of the world, i think the full extent and potential awfulness of the unfolding scene was simply incomprehensible to them. there was no way that a boris johnson or a donald trump were prepared to make such extreme moves in the early days of the pandemic, even when we already knew it was very bad indeed.

Last edited by uziq (2021-12-23 01:29:41)

Larssen
Member
+99|2128
For the largest part it's because crisis planning in the area of pandemic response was inadequate in most countries. At (inter)national levels we had all been planning and exercising for terrorism response, natural disasters, nuclear disasters, oil spills, disasters in energy or water supply etc., warfare (all types), even cybersecurity attacks and IT disasters. But a pandemic scenario had not been adequately prepared. At the start it seemed unclear what metrics were important, which parties would fulfill which roles/responsibilities & when, which restrictions/responses needed to be weighed at which tables, what their effects would be, and what capabilities it all would require.

As you say the only countries which did have crisisplanning ready were those which recently experienced potentially similar scenario's. In the western world, a quickly spreading dangerous endemic/pandemic disease hadn't been experienced in a 100 years and it showed.

Ironically though the USA apparently was well-prepared on paper, but that didn't account for the Trump administration.
uziq
Member
+496|3693
right, so the idea we could have easily contained it in the early months is insanely fanciful and optimistic.

the idea we could have even identified patient zero, or even patient 300, in wuhan is totally contrary to the actual practical progress of the disease.

covid is asymptomatic and infectious for 7-10(15) days. it doesn't create serious illness/death until nearly 3 weeks after infection.

so even if the very first doctor to notice the very first seriously ill patient ran to his hospital manager and said, 'Herr Dktr! i've just noticed an elderly man die of pneumonia, consequent to a flu-type illness! we must SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING IMMEDIATELY!' (because of course that happens all the time, and people dying of flu-type illnesses in hospital in winter is totally extraordinary and should raise alarms), covid would have still been out there, spreading in a major world-hub, for the better part of a month.

the idea we could have closed this thing down in 'september 2021', 2 months earlier than it making waves in the chinese medical establishment, is wide-eyed conspiracy-thinking levels of insane. sorry, try again. reality is just much too complicated for these asinine childish wish-fulfillment fantasies.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7013|PNW

uziq wrote:

the idea that the world would have committed immediately to a heavy pandemic response, if ONLY we had the right information or if ONLY china were honest, is pretty fucking fanciful. by all accounts, we failed to implement our own 'robust' pandemic response measures in many cases (US, UK, singular examples of multi-leveled failure), and often times it seemed we didn't even believe the evidence of our own eyes.
Wasn't China sealing off whole buildings and putting up barricades? Stuff that wouldn't be out of place in a pandemic apocalypse film. Yet even in light of that, other countries still dragged their feet. Coronavirus in the US: a political football with two years of anti-science, anti-countermeasure, anti-vax clowning surrounding it.
uziq
Member
+496|3693
china majorly dragged and misled the world on admitting that the novel coronavirus-type pathogen was transmissible person-to-person. so an (opportunistic, evasive, plain dishonest; you decide) western government could plead in all innocence that they didn't realize china were entombing entire cities because it was a major human threat. there was a small window in which we could profess ignorance and assume, er, that china were barricading entire apartment blocks and cities because of a disease that leapt to wet-market workers from a particularly infected cage of pangolins, or something.

trump and world leaders in the West did know, full-well, that it posed a major threat a long time before they took any drastic action. for weeks, months even, trump was saying 'no worries about covid, we have it under control'. this is whilst his own CDC were telling him it was very, very bad news indeed; and whilst there were positive-identified cases on the west coast, with clusters springing up in nursing homes and local hospitals. remember what happened then, when the federal authorities dithered for a month and actually DISALLOWED testing labs in washington state to respond effectively? yeah, it was totally china's fault. the West would have sprung into correct courses of action immediately, if only C H I N A hadn't been such marvel supervillains ... let's be fucking real here, we ballsed it up perfectly well for ourselves.

there were endemics of covid in italy and then spain and northern europe did nothing. a major seeding event in the UK was a huge international football match between a spanish league team and liverpool. we allowed giant horse-racing festivals, events with nation-wide congregations of people, to go ahead that Easter. this is months into the pandemic. this isn't a case of 'oh, china, why didn't you tell us quick enough!' we knew. the scientific data was out there; the papers were being published; the warnings were issued loud and clear. Western leaders didn't have the political werewithal or gumption to go ahead with full pandemic emergency measures.

but dilbert thinks it's all china's fault.

Last edited by uziq (2021-12-23 03:21:03)

unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7013|PNW

From February last year,

Sealed in: Chinese trapped at home by coronavirus feel the strain
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin … SKCN20G0AY

Same time that year it still hadn't hit home for a lot of people what we could be in for. On into 2021, people still talking about the scamdemic even as Republicans (finally) plead with them to get vaccinated.
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,285|6957

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

From February last year,

Sealed in: Chinese trapped at home by coronavirus feel the strain
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin … SKCN20G0AY

Same time that year it still hadn't hit home for a lot of people what we could be in for. On into 2021, people still talking about the scamdemic even as Republicans (finally) plead with them to get vaccinated.
Dilbs is basically verbatim fox/sky news - covid is a chinese bioweapon but also its just hte flu dont worry about it.

"china is authotarian, they're overreacting"

mfw chinese govt only cares about the economy, when shutting down is the absolute last resort.

in other news someone who came to my son's bday on the weekend has covid. time for  PCR testing! everyone was double vacc, so far all the antigen tests are neg.
https://cache.www.gametracker.com/server_info/203.46.105.23:21300/b_350_20_692108_381007_FFFFFF_000000.png
uziq
Member
+496|3693
dilbert does get most of his comment from tabloid-level resources, but he's definitely not claiming that it's flu and not to worry about it.

dilbert has criticized china for its authoritarianism passim on this forum for years, but in this matter he really does want more restrictions, more regulations, more lockdowns, more travel bans -- potentially indefinitely. he's sanguine about this sort of thing because he himself doesn't have any life or need to see relatives living in another state/country, etc. so he's all for the most punitive measures possible. he's also economically secure and doesn't have to worry about his blue-collar precariat job, etc, so naturally he can't see why anyone would want restaurants or hotels to be open except for 'pure selfishness' or 'indian racial lack of cooperation' or whatever-the-fuck.

amusingly he thinks covid is now endemic, which is news to everyone, much like his genius-level takes on public health policy. he should really install a little red telephone direct to the australian PM's office.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7013|PNW

Cybargs wrote:

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

From February last year,

Sealed in: Chinese trapped at home by coronavirus feel the strain
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin … SKCN20G0AY

Same time that year it still hadn't hit home for a lot of people what we could be in for. On into 2021, people still talking about the scamdemic even as Republicans (finally) plead with them to get vaccinated.
Dilbs is basically verbatim fox/sky news - covid is a chinese bioweapon but also its just hte flu dont worry about it.

"china is authotarian, they're overreacting"

mfw chinese govt only cares about the economy, when shutting down is the absolute last resort.

in other news someone who came to my son's bday on the weekend has covid. time for  PCR testing! everyone was double vacc, so far all the antigen tests are neg.
I wish WA Notify was more useful. Causes problems on some phones, sucks juice, and you still have to deal with out-of-staters who might not have something like that. CDC's page on contact tracing is a bit of a mess with a bunch of infographic pdfs that boil down to "call your close contacts and tell them you have COVID-19" or whatever. Wow thanks, doesn't help with the people someone was standing in line with at the grocery store though. Why couldn't we have had extensive national contact tracing? Apparently because we don't want a "health police state," like wtf. It's 2021, entities already have your information.
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,285|6957

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

Cybargs wrote:

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

From February last year,

Sealed in: Chinese trapped at home by coronavirus feel the strain
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin … SKCN20G0AY

Same time that year it still hadn't hit home for a lot of people what we could be in for. On into 2021, people still talking about the scamdemic even as Republicans (finally) plead with them to get vaccinated.
Dilbs is basically verbatim fox/sky news - covid is a chinese bioweapon but also its just hte flu dont worry about it.

"china is authotarian, they're overreacting"

mfw chinese govt only cares about the economy, when shutting down is the absolute last resort.

in other news someone who came to my son's bday on the weekend has covid. time for  PCR testing! everyone was double vacc, so far all the antigen tests are neg.
I wish WA Notify was more useful. Causes problems on some phones, sucks juice, and you still have to deal with out-of-staters who might not have something like that. CDC's page on contact tracing is a bit of a mess with a bunch of infographic pdfs that boil down to "call your close contacts and tell them you have COVID-19" or whatever. Wow thanks, doesn't help with the people someone was standing in line with at the grocery store though. Why couldn't we have had extensive national contact tracing? Apparently because we don't want a "health police state," like wtf. It's 2021, entities already have your information.
the QR code check in has produced some funny results in aus like this man.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n … infectious

homie went to a bunch of bbq hardware stores... 11 in one day. people thought he had a massive party. turned out to be a high up asset manager that was doing his due diligence in buying out the bbq hardware stores LOL.

also an investment banker who had dinner at 8, went to a nightclub from 11 to 3am, went back in the office at 8am, what a champ.
https://cache.www.gametracker.com/server_info/203.46.105.23:21300/b_350_20_692108_381007_FFFFFF_000000.png
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,285|6957

uziq wrote:

dilbert does get most of his comment from tabloid-level resources, but he's definitely not claiming that it's flu and not to worry about it.

dilbert has criticized china for its authoritarianism passim on this forum for years, but in this matter he really does want more restrictions, more regulations, more lockdowns, more travel bans -- potentially indefinitely. he's sanguine about this sort of thing because he himself doesn't have any life or need to see relatives living in another state/country, etc. so he's all for the most punitive measures possible. he's also economically secure and doesn't have to worry about his blue-collar precariat job, etc, so naturally he can't see why anyone would want restaurants or hotels to be open except for 'pure selfishness' or 'indian racial lack of cooperation' or whatever-the-fuck.

amusingly he thinks covid is now endemic, which is news to everyone, much like his genius-level takes on public health policy. he should really install a little red telephone direct to the australian PM's office.
unironically dilbs wouldve handled this panedmic than the australian PM. but dilbs would still vote for the tories cos "labor = socialism"
https://cache.www.gametracker.com/server_info/203.46.105.23:21300/b_350_20_692108_381007_FFFFFF_000000.png
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6347|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

another amazingly bad analogy. anthrax is not covid, doesn't spread like covid, isn't invisible and asymptomatic like covid.

the simple fact is that even with the best-faith and best course of behaviour in the world from the CCP or medical authorities, the first outbreak of covid-19 into the general population would have been untraceable and asymptomatic for 7-15 days. we would have been dealing with an international-level incident by default, not something easily localizable to a wet market or a city in china which could be isolated and stamped out.

if the whole world had pivoted to a 'sars' scenario with a response proportional to, say, a taiwan or korea, then we could probably have defanged this thing and dealt with it. but the vast majority of the world were not ready to pivot to a state-of-emergency and to throw huge amounts of public funding and resources into covid in the early stages of the pandemic, as well-seasoned taiwan/korea were. european nations, the USA, and many other governments besides seriously dragged their feet. and that WASN'T only because of bad intelligence coming from china. it's because the global economy and status quo have a terrible amount of inertia behind them when it comes to this sort of thing.

look at the sheer number of western governments who had extensive pandemic planning, modelling, reports, etc, ready and waiting for this eventuality, and then didn't follow them at all. that's not china's fault. it's because governments were genuinely hesitant to invest the huge amount of economic and political capital necessary into the early stages of this thing.
If they'd had a clearer picture of what they were dealing with I am sure the response would have been a whole lot harder, if it had been anthrax from a weapons lab whatever the detail of the disease the reaction would have been intense.

If we'd known a the time the Wuhan lab was working on modified coronaviruses China would have been isolated in Sept/Oct 2019.
ehm, we DID know. it wasn't top-secret research. it was publicly funded by one of america's main scientific funding bodies, not a pentagon black project.

and seeing as this wasn't even an identified outbreak in china's frontline hospitals until november-december 2019, i sincerely doubt we could have 'isolated china in september 2019'.
This wasn't common knowledge at the time, various people kept their mouths shut and the information prised out much too late.
Those people, including the Chinese, should have been open immediately.
Now we know they knew at the time there was a good chance it was a lab-leak of a gain-of-function modified virus and they didn't say a word but went all out to cover it up.

Now we are fucked, we're all going to have to let Omicron rip, then however may variants after that, boosters every 3 months seem likely, terrific.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3693
no, boosters every 3 months doesn't seem likely. a fourth booster is only being considered for a small group of the very most vulnerable, and, even then, this recent drive by israel is driven as much by a sense of scientific experiment and 'trying it out' rather than an absolute dire necessity. all of the latest variants in the last 6 months are still covered by that first notional top-up booster. omicron certainly isn't a worry to anyone who has been vaccinated at all in the last year.

god you and larssen are literally insufferable. look at the actual data. for 95% of the population getting a vaccine once every 6 months, even in this early stage of rushed-out, first-generation vaccines, will give you long and lasting protection. a 'breakthrough' reinfection by a mild variant like omicron will give you mild cold-like symptoms for 2-3 days -- and then you're immune again for the next 6 months. wowsers!

all the major drugs companies have announced that they are working on vaccines for the omicron variant. the US military just announced last week that it has developed a prototype vaccine which covers for all known variants of covid with high efficacy: a one-shot-does-all affair. it's reasonable to expect that we will get better at vaccinating for covid, not worse, and not that it will suddenly mutate and outrun us.

you just linked yourself an article stating that the future projection for covid is that it will become 'endemic' (again, it's not there yet). that means like flu. at-risk and vulnerable people have to get updated flu shots every winter season. what is the fucking problem? jesus christ you miserable cunt.

This wasn't common knowledge at the time, various people kept their mouths shut and the information prised out much too late.
Those people, including the Chinese, should have been open immediately.
this quite arguably would not have made a whit of a difference. covid is at its most infectious whilst it is early-stage asymptomatic. which lasts up to 2-3 weeks! 'we live in an age where you can get anything in the world within 24 hrs', so says dilbertius. but apparently we could have put the brakes on an invisible, highly infectious disease on day 1. use your fucking head.

Last edited by uziq (2021-12-24 01:29:23)

Cybargs
Moderated
+2,285|6957

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

another amazingly bad analogy. anthrax is not covid, doesn't spread like covid, isn't invisible and asymptomatic like covid.

the simple fact is that even with the best-faith and best course of behaviour in the world from the CCP or medical authorities, the first outbreak of covid-19 into the general population would have been untraceable and asymptomatic for 7-15 days. we would have been dealing with an international-level incident by default, not something easily localizable to a wet market or a city in china which could be isolated and stamped out.

if the whole world had pivoted to a 'sars' scenario with a response proportional to, say, a taiwan or korea, then we could probably have defanged this thing and dealt with it. but the vast majority of the world were not ready to pivot to a state-of-emergency and to throw huge amounts of public funding and resources into covid in the early stages of the pandemic, as well-seasoned taiwan/korea were. european nations, the USA, and many other governments besides seriously dragged their feet. and that WASN'T only because of bad intelligence coming from china. it's because the global economy and status quo have a terrible amount of inertia behind them when it comes to this sort of thing.

look at the sheer number of western governments who had extensive pandemic planning, modelling, reports, etc, ready and waiting for this eventuality, and then didn't follow them at all. that's not china's fault. it's because governments were genuinely hesitant to invest the huge amount of economic and political capital necessary into the early stages of this thing.
If they'd had a clearer picture of what they were dealing with I am sure the response would have been a whole lot harder, if it had been anthrax from a weapons lab whatever the detail of the disease the reaction would have been intense.

If we'd known a the time the Wuhan lab was working on modified coronaviruses China would have been isolated in Sept/Oct 2019.
ehm, we DID know. it wasn't top-secret research. it was publicly funded by one of america's main scientific funding bodies, not a pentagon black project.

and seeing as this wasn't even an identified outbreak in china's frontline hospitals until november-december 2019, i sincerely doubt we could have 'isolated china in september 2019'.
This wasn't common knowledge at the time, various people kept their mouths shut and the information prised out much too late.
Those people, including the Chinese, should have been open immediately.
Now we know they knew at the time there was a good chance it was a lab-leak of a gain-of-function modified virus and they didn't say a word but went all out to cover it up.

Now we are fucked, we're all going to have to let Omicron rip, then however may variants after that, boosters every 3 months seem likely, terrific.
i knew about covid in november 2019, just a "sars like flu" going around in wuhan. people knew there was some sit, but didnt know exactly what it was. not to mention china arrested and killed the doctor that exposed covid. people knew the genetic code in december, its just govts being retarded and didnt want to "ruin the economy" - exactly the same as the chinese response!
https://cache.www.gametracker.com/server_info/203.46.105.23:21300/b_350_20_692108_381007_FFFFFF_000000.png
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,285|6957

uziq wrote:

no, boosters every 3 months doesn't seem likely. a fourth booster is only being considered for a small group of the very most vulnerable, and, even then, this recent drive by israel is driven as much by a sense of scientific experiment and 'trying it out' rather than an absolute dire necessity. all of the latest variants in the last 6 months are still covered by that first notional top-up booster. omicron certainly isn't a worry to anyone who has been vaccinated at all in the last year.

god you and larssen are literally insufferable. look at the actual data. for 95% of the population getting a vaccine once every 6 months, even in this early stage of rushed-out, first-generation vaccines, will give you long and lasting protection. a 'breakthrough' reinfection by a mild variant like omicron will give you mild cold-like symptoms for 2-3 days -- and then you're immune again for the next 6 months. wowsers!

all the major drugs companies have announced that they are working on vaccines for the omicron variant. the US military just announced last week that it has developed a prototype vaccine which covers for all known variants of covid with high efficacy: a one-shot-does-all affair. it's reasonable to expect that we will get better at vaccinating for covid, not worse, and not that it will suddenly mutate and outrun us.

you just linked yourself an article stating that the future projection for covid is that it will become 'endemic' (again, it's not there yet). that means like flu. at-risk and vulnerable people have to get updated flu shots every winter season. what is the fucking problem? jesus christ you miserable cunt.

This wasn't common knowledge at the time, various people kept their mouths shut and the information prised out much too late.
Those people, including the Chinese, should have been open immediately.
this quite arguably would not have made a whit of a difference. covid is at its most infectious whilst it is early-stage asymptomatic. which lasts up to 2-3 weeks! 'we live in an age where you can get anything in the world within 24 hrs', so says dilbertius. but apparently we could have put the brakes on an invisible, highly infectious disease on day 1. use your fucking head.
friend who got rona had 2 pfizer doses in august, got the omni (most likely) and he's feeling bad on day 3, coughing like shit and throat hurts, but nothing too serious i dont think.
https://cache.www.gametracker.com/server_info/203.46.105.23:21300/b_350_20_692108_381007_FFFFFF_000000.png
uziq
Member
+496|3693
delta, from all the available data, seems to be much more severe and serious, and yet we know that people's immune systems respond well to boosters for delta. we have seen the numbers, especially in places like evil israel with their high-priority vaccine systems and highly data-mined population. omicron is not as severe as delta. getting a booster once every 6 or perhaps 4 months will really keep you fine for the foreseeable. and then we have better medications and better-tooled vaccines coming on-line all the time.

dilbert and larssen both sound burnt out and miserable, pessimistic. they are literally some of the most privileged and safe people on the planet when it comes to this stuff, with their livelihoods almost entirely untouched and safe, and yet they spend more time freaking out over boosters and new mutants than anyone else. of course, they're both totally resigned and apathetic about the chances of making any concrete difference, like by vaccinating the global south or trying to promote vaccine equality. much better to sit inside and be doomers for the next 6 months.

dilbert needs a holiday. i think he should go to chiang mai.

Last edited by uziq (2021-12-24 04:05:01)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6347|eXtreme to the maX
I do need a holiday, I have no plans to visit Asia.

Personally I'd prefer not to be vaccinated every 4-6 months, and I doubt that will keep us ahead.
Even fully vaccinated people are still getting this.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3693
you don't have to get vaccinated every 6 months. that's currently the most cautious approach for people who are clinically vulnerable or shielding. the data is pretty clear: for healthy, middle-aged people, being vaccinated 12 months ago still gives you remarkably good protection. the rates of serious illness in (booster-less) adults is something like 3-5%.  the booster is a well-advised top-up, not some grim dystopian life sentence.

it takes you literally 15 minutes during an office workday to go and get a booster shot. you are remarkably privileged in that you can access them quickly, easily, and most likely for free, whenever the thought troubles your mind. and still you make out like it's a catastrophe. jesus christ, get a grip.

better vaccines are coming. antiviral pills will be here, to be taken in all but the most severe cases of covid. longer-lasting vaccines plus over-the-counter medication: how much more can you fucking whine about a totally pedestrian problem? do you drag your feet and call it the end of the world everytime you get a sore throat and have to go buy some Strepsils? ffs.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6347|eXtreme to the maX
Right so fully vaccinated we still run a 3-5% risk of serious illness and hospitalisation up to death.

Once this thing really is circulating thats going to be your annual risk. Doesn't really seem like a "totally pedestrian problem"

And thats in first world countries. The rest of the world is wholly fucked.

But yeah, relax, enjoy travel, its just the flu.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3693
that's rates of illness in people WITHOUT a booster, i.e. +12 months after their last vaccine shot. not a 5% absolute risk of serious illness. ffs.

and, no, 'once this thing is really circulating', as it is indeed now, there's every chance people could catch increasingly mild strains and be immune. voila.

you really see the worst-case scenario in everything. science is delivering us from this pandemic. we have better medications and better treatments than ever before, and they're getting better. it's really that simple. for some reason you want to moan about the prospect of getting a booster every 6 months or a year, or taking antiviral medication. absolutely ridiculous. it is the most minor of inconveniences to you. 'treatment' for a bout of covid will rank somewhere lower on the life-ruining phase than a common food allergy, or having to visit the dentist every 6 months for a clean.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6347|eXtreme to the maX

Dilbert_X wrote:

And thats in first world countries. The rest of the world is wholly fucked.
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3693
vaccines are cheap and the difficulties are nowhere near as intractable as you make out.

covid death rate in 'the third world' has been pretty low for most of the pandemic.

with that said, yes, as i have been insisting all along against your whining, vaccine equality really is the most pressing task ahead of us, not handwringing because oh no, how terrible, i have to get a booster once every 6 months, oh nooooo.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|7013|PNW

We should consider ourselves privileged to be living in a time of vaccines and modern medicine, giving us a fighting chance against, by virus: setback/end-of-civilization and human extinction events, and lesser ravages.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,815|6347|eXtreme to the maX
Now South Korea is making travellers quarantine again

"South Korea is currently requiring all passengers arriving from abroad to quarantine for at least 10 days, regardless of their nationality or vaccination status.

The country has banned short-term foreign travellers arriving from nine African nations, including South Africa and Nigeria."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/ … ng-elderly

Don't they know travel restrictions and quarantines are a waste of time?
Fuck Israel
uziq
Member
+496|3693
they introduced the measure weeks ago. thanks for telling me, i had no idea. you know, dilbert, you should really stop just dropping links into this forum on situations and topics about which you know fucking zilch. it makes you look highly dumb contrarian.

Dilbert wrote:

Now South Korea is making travellers quarantine again
tourists and short-term arrivals have always had to quarantine. i have always spoken in support of this. i don't know why you twist my words otherwise. quarantine was removed for returning nationals and long-term visa holders who had been double-vaccinated, so long as they presented a test. now everyone, including korean natives (shock, horror, etc) have to quarantine for 10 days at a place of their choosing. the efficacy of this is dubious (see every single variant previously where koreans could isolate at home; 10 days wasn't previously considered a long enough quarantine even for the less-infectious variants).

korea has never closed its borders totally. korea has never been an advert for the sort of policies you continually push for. about the best you can say for these dubious new measures (quarantine too short, still possible to self-isolate at home with others, etc) is that it acts as a deterrent on a behavioural level. not many people want to travel for frivolous reasons when it involves 10 days inside; but, will it stop anyone who actually wants to get into the country? absolutely not. is 10 days isolation enough to beat a highly transmissible variant? absolutely not. we have seen, time and time again, how people in 3-4 week quarantines still go on to test positive and spread delta.

south korea are dealing with their biggest ever wave. as above, this has nothing to do with international tourism, though. their current wave is totally self-inflicted and is due to their extremely idiosyncratic approach to reopening, coupled with their refusal to ever use WFH (trad office culture) or to increase public transport provision during winter (packed metros every single day). in short, they've been sticking by the same 'support small businesses' model, packing out cafés, restaurants and small offices, whilst not taking into account that delta+omicron this winter are much, much more transmissible than this time last year.

korea and japan are both very interesting case studies at present. korea is the only country whose fatality rate has spiked whilst reopening. korea is basically a case-study for a highly vaccinated country that reopened too fast, prior to sufficient boosters, and now lots of old people are dying again. the older generations mostly all received an AZ vaccine 12+ months ago, back when mRNA was scarce in east asia; booster uptake has been worryingly low in this group; and korean society is very heavy on huge communal meals (and even worse, rule-breaking and vaccine-avoiding huge church gatherings). japan, conversely, has practically no cases whatsoever following only modest curbs and an early winter wave: honestly, no one quite understands why for that one.

there’s a lot of dynamics at play in these things.

every single one of korea’s waves and every single new variant has been brought to korea by native koreans, normally returning from business or a church-missionary trip (as with omicron). for 1.5 years of the pandemic a native korean could skip government quarantine and ‘self-isolate’ at home. with their families. in highly dense apartment blocks and buildings. no surprises: their strict measures against tourists did fuck all about that one. it was only highly effective contract tracing and a culture of basically zero privacy that kept previous covid waves in check.

banning short-term travel from african nations is completely nonsensical and racist when you consider that omicron is the dominant variant in europe and north america too. and that a KOREAN MISSIONARY brought the variant from the continent of africa to korea, and proceeded to BREAK his own self-isolation and drive around seoul. lol. fuck me dilbert. i'm sure you have a nuanced understanding of korea's epidemiological picture, though.

Last edited by uziq (2021-12-25 00:34:28)

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