BF2S Forums Pandemic thread

delta became the dominant strain because it was more transmissible and more successful at reproducing, an order of magnitude, in fact, meaning the viral load from delta is literally thousands of times heavier than the original wuhan strain, and even the early alpha strain.

it is not significantly more lethal than the UK/south africa/brazil variants, certainly not an order of magnitude so; nor does it evade vaccine tech, similar to the other major strains. it's just very, very good at spreading and dumps a vast amount of covid in your system. against other strains, it's a no brainer that delta became the dominant strain. it's survival-of-the-fittest in comparison to other covid strains, not a competition at killing humans.

a mutative virus like covid will settle into a groove of several major strains which have optimized a few different variations of transmissibility/load/lethality. any highly lethal strains would probably burn themselves out, or lack the longevity of competing strains.

any new variant isn't emerging into a terra nova open killing-field anymore, and must 'adapt' to an environment in which most people have antibodies or immunity. the chances of a sudden terrific killer emerging from the void are very, very unlikely. could the pandemic get worse? during winter, certainly. but it really does look like the long-term future will be tweaked vaccines to keep pace with mutant variations.

again, a highly contagious variant could gain the ascendancy and enable widespread herd immunity to the more serious strains. it's a possibility. we simply don't know how the dynamics of the pandemic will unfold. but your understanding, of the pandemic sharpening its dinner knives and gradually getting better and better at ruining humans, just isn't the picture at all. you are literally viewing natural selection with a religious mindset. you'll be talking about Evil next – another pet hobby of yours. not very rational, chap.

Last edited by uziq (2021-11-29 21:40:57)

there is literally nothing in your entire approach or 200-pages-plus contribution to this thread that screams 'STEM' person.

it's really quite sad, the way you self-fashion yourself, and meanwhile give in to the worst sorts of hysteria, political loutishness, and plain simple idiocy.

how can you call yourself a 'STEM person' when you don't even understand natural selection ... i mean laughing my fucking ass off here.

'we're on variant 4, the last one was bad, hoo boy variant 5 must be bad!'

i assume most STEM graduates are familiar with the first princiPALS of charles dawKINs.

Last edited by uziq (2021-11-29 21:55:36)

go read my last 5 posts. i've already covered this extensively. it's amazing, your inability to actually further a discussion or prosecute an argument.

we have had hundreds of variants now. most are outcompeted or disappear because their adaptation was not amenable. you know, that's natural selection. you thinking there's only 4/5 variants, in an ascending order of severity, is just fucking funny.

there are many factors that lead to a 'covid wave', ambient levels of antibodies/herd immunity and seasonal illness being important ones. it's not 'omg the covid is getting too stronk! we must shut the borders before the 6th variant, Final Boss Covid!'

Dilbert_X wrote:

Variant 4, Delta, was the worst one so far at the time, this Omicron thing is going to be interesting.

ok. go read some basic biology. it's not too late for you yet.

you're technically an unemployed NEET now, at the princely age of, what, 48? you surely must have plenty of time to acquire some new skills and education.

delta is the worst so far, yes, but there's nothing to suggest that omicron will be any more dangerous or world-crippling than, say, the indian variant, or the south african variant (remember those? yes, they surely ended life as we know it on planet earth too).

in fact, to even say that omicron will achieve continental or global prominence right now is pure speculation.

we literally don't know if it's mutations make it more evasive of vaccines, better at transmission – anything, really.

need i mention 'STEM types' again? you don't really think like a 'STEM type' when you throw due scientific process out the window and keep ranting about 'chinese labs, china leaking new variants' and dark conspiracies about fauci. you sound like a retard who spends too much time on his closed facebook feed.

lol so fucking vague. those two sentences do not support one another. this is not how you argue and 'derive' from 'first principals'.

countries are shutting their borders as semi-ineffective 'precautions'. community transmission has been established in just about every continent now, and many large population hubs: if this thing really is the delta-beater in terms of transmissibility, well, it's a bit late for shutting down borders. we'd need full lockdowns to have any chance of curbing it ... which raises again the actual utility of such drastic measures.

as i said, shutting borders makes sense if you're aiming to spend the next 2-4 weeks booting up a vaccine/booster overdrive. stopping new international arrivals might arrest the coming infection wave by a little, but not by much. eventually you're going to have to relent and admit that highly transmissible variants get in by hook or by crook (aka the NZ 'zero delta' outcome).

the source of the virus and whether or not it came from gain-of-function research in wuhan is totally fucking irrelevant at this point. all of these variations have traceable lineages in situ. it's not evil china sprinkling new top-secret variations from their unclassified stealth bombers, dilbert. and part of the originary purpose of GoF research is to find out how we could devise better vaccines; it's not like china have some heretofore unknown level of intelligence about this virus that we do not. their measures were every bit as heavyhanded and, indeed, much more draconian, remember?

i just linked you 3 senior national-level scientists above who said that the spread of omicron was 'inevitable'.

suddenly you're a huge fan of israel – you never cease to surprise, after accusing them of bad faith and possibly 'knowing something we don't know' when they rapidly acquired and vaccinated their population early in 2021.

let's face it, you're a paranoid and a crank who thinks he's the resident 'man of science'. you're about as scientific as piers corbyn.

also on the subject of japan, i don't know if you've checked lately, but their daily case numbers are in the low dozens. clearly the calculus of closing their borders and attempting to completely seal off for the winter has a different merit than, say, a large european country that already was dealing with a moderate winter wave before the appearance of omicron. does this really need to be pointed out to you? have i not said, about 150 times in this thread, that 'one-size-fits-all doesn't work' or 'the new zealand approach is not globally exportable'?

Last edited by uziq (2021-11-30 01:05:43)

jesus christ learn to read a paragraph of text you daft CUNT.

countries are shutting their borders as semi-ineffective 'precautions'. community transmission has been established in just about every continent now, and many large population hubs: if this thing really is the delta-beater in terms of transmissibility, well, it's a bit late for shutting down borders. we'd need full lockdowns to have any chance of curbing it ... which raises again the actual utility of such drastic measures.

so why are your own state officials saying that its spread is inevitable in australia?

https://amp.9news.com.au/article/8da498 … ff15dc2d7d

"The clear point today is that this clearly demonstrates the pandemic is not over," Mr Perrottet said.

"We need to learn to live alongside the virus and to live alongside the various strains of the virus that will come our way, and the best thing we can do is get vaccinated and get booster shots."

"There are limits to what the state and federal government can do: these variants will get into the country, it is inevitable," Mr Perrottet said.

yep, sounds like a hard suppression strategy to me ...

he lied to the people man! he's in the pay of china! he covered up for his friend's gain-of-function research! israel are probably involved! fauci made AIDS worse!

Also dilbert I'd like to show you exhibit A: https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconvers … ion-171268

How will stopping human travel stop the virus

As far as I remember white tail deer don't take international flights very often.

If some nasty variant develops itself in North American deer then I'd prefer if it could stay in North America, just as it would have been better if it had stayed in a cave in Wuhan.

If its in the general animal population then we probably are fucked. Terrific.
What a pathetic global response - let everyone keep travelling and infect everyone and everything so we're afflicted with covid forever.

There's probably no point in bothering with vaccines, we'll need boosters every three months and that won't even come close to dealing with it.

Erm no

https://www.dfat.gov.au/about-us/public … quarantine

Imagine writing a post about your replacement gun spring being stuck in Miami if Miami was a glass crater.