Announcement

Join us on Discord: https://discord.gg/nf43FxS
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+507|2837
This winter's wave might be bigger than last winters. Probably not as deadly due to vaccines lowering the deadliness of the COVID.
https://i.imgur.com/FdS9H2P.png
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+426|2570
hence why an obsession with case numbers is barely useful.
uziq
Member
+426|2570

Dilbert_X wrote:

Yawn, no, having a vaccine doesn't mean we can drop all other controls.

"My car has ABS brakes, now I don't need seatbelts or airbags, I'll rip them out."
except nobody is advocating dropping all controls, anywhere in the entire world.

masks, social distancing, targeted lockdowns/curfews, work-from-home orders, etc, are all readily available and are being deployed now.

which reminds me, i need to book my flight to australia now. i've always wanted to visit bondi beach.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,756|5224|eXtreme to the maX
Having not been to Bondi I think I'm more than qualified to say its just a beach and nothing special.
#Freed Britney !
uziq
Member
+426|2570
it's really quite simple, though: getting vaccinated and booster shots is really the best thing you can do for yourself and your loved ones. the threat from covid for the vaccinated really is small, and only pertains to the vulnerable and immunocompromised, for whom a whole range of seaasonal and infectious diseases are similarly perilous.

there is literally no reason whatsoever to coop up entire cities or national populations under heavy lockdowns. mass, high levels of vaccination really do work.
DesertFox-
The very model of a modern major general
+767|5802|United States of America
Just topped up my 5G nanobot booster. It does give me more peace of mind with various mask mandates relaxing and the longer elapsed time since Dose #2 as I've done more dining out and even started going to events again.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,936|5889|USA

More in (imo) irresponsible reporting,

Big Headline:

Despite Vaccines, the U.S. Has Lost More Lives to COVID This Year Than Last
https://www.yahoo.com/news/despite-vacc … 43018.html

clickbait hot take: "see, vaccines aren't working!"

small print:
Experts say the higher death toll is a result of a confluence of factors: most crucially lower-than-needed vaccination rates, but also the relaxation of everyday precautions, like masks and social distancing, and the rise of the highly contagious delta variant.

Essentially, public health experts said, many Americans are behaving as if COVID-19 is now a manageable, endemic disease rather than a crisis — a transition that will happen eventually but has not happened yet.

Yet many are also refusing to get vaccinated in the numbers required to make that transition to what scientists call “endemicity,” which would mean the virus would still circulate at a lower level with periodic increases and decreases but not spike in the devastating cycles that have characterized the pandemic. Just 59% of Americans are fully vaccinated, the lowest rate of any Group of 7 nation.
uziq
Member
+426|2570
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,936|5889|USA

Reminds me of that fortune telling machine on Big with Tom Hanks.
Larssen
Member
+71|1005
The current waves in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands seem pretty foreboding for the rest of the northern hemisphere.
uziq
Member
+426|2570
germany has piteously low vaccination rates – a third of the population won't touch a vaccine.

the netherlands barely ever stuck to basic mask-wearing procedures (the UK is bad on this score too, regrettably).

in countries with high vaccination rates, like the NL, attention must be paid to booster shot uptake. they really do work and really do make a measurable difference to serious illness/deaths. it's all fine and well on a surface reading to say 'we are 85% vaccinated', but if the oldest and most vulnerable had their vaccines last spring, then they are not protected.

it's not necessarily foreboding at all. there are counter-examples.

though i agree with you that winter is going to be a pretty rough and ropey period for the next few years. we need to reach widespread global vaccination, and then every country can bed-in with its own seasonal booster programmes, much like we have catered to flu. antiviral medication will help keep it down and people out of hospitals.

there have been some new variants of concern this winter but i'll hold off on any speculation. nothing to say they evade vaccine tech yet.

Last edited by uziq (2021-11-24 23:58:04)

Larssen
Member
+71|1005
The fact is though that each of these countries is realising their worst case prognosis for the spread of the virus, even with moderate restrictions in place. So now, like Austria, they're all mulling over reimposing total lockdowns. The fact that delta is this contageous even in places with 80%+ vaccinated and in mask wearing populations is problematic to say the least.

While many seem convinced that this will be the last winter with widespread lockdowns in place, I'm both not so sure and wary of the economic damage it will cause. Massive borrowing has helped the EU stay on its feet and kept several sectors from bankruptcy/widespread unemployment, but the economies in a number of countries still haven't recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Suppose we keep printing & driving up inflation again this winter, there's going to be a reckoning at some point. Not to mention the societal cost of lockdowns and the waning support for or adherence to new restrictions.
uziq
Member
+426|2570
how is it a 'worse case prognosis'? cases are up and deaths/hospitalizations are down.

a vaccine is never going to stop a disease from being contagious. most vaccines don't give you immunity from carrying a virus. that's not how it works. delta is highly successful at spreading but it doesn't follow that it's more deadly (nothing to say that there couldn't be a variant which is both more contagious and more deadly, but there we are).

even a regular booster shot adds good protection against delta. in the future it's conceivable we could have better-tailored vaccines which are specifically targeted for delta. for now, the mRNA vaccines developed last winter have provable good results against it.

we are going to see winter irruptions of covid now, forever. cases in the tens or hundreds of thousands.

agree with you about the financial reckoning: it's only just the beginning. which is why more 3-month lockdowns is pure fucking insanity.

Last edited by uziq (2021-11-25 03:00:18)

Larssen
Member
+71|1005
worst case prognoses in terms of infection numbers. Each of these countries has by far surpassed their previous all time high case numbers which were set pre-vaccination. They're on track to triple or quadruple those daily numbers. Hospitalisations are increasing quickly as well because of the 10-30% that is still unvaccinated who are now in need of medical attention en masse. But there's also more vaccinated people with comorbidities flowing into intensive care units. Given a 97% effective vaccine, a rapid enough spread among a totally vaccinated population could still pressure hospital services.

So yes we're going to see more lockdowns. I don't know if they will be as severe as last year, but it's conceivable several countries need to lock up completely for another 1-2 months. Eastern European countries, where vaccination is generally lower, will probably be worst hit. Going into the next wave/coming out of it, I expect vaccination will be made compulsory in most places at the very least. There's also a possibility of more riots, social unrest etc. And yes the financial picture of it all is becoming seriously worrisome, esp. in southern europe if they too have to shut everything down again.

Last edited by Larssen (2021-11-25 03:37:45)

uziq
Member
+426|2570
case numbers don't mean anything when vaccination enters the picture, though.

the problem is right there: 10–30% of the population are still unvaccinated.

the only people turning up critically ill in UK wards now are unvaccinated. the virus can firestorm all it wants and reach case numbers in the 100,000s: if vaccination and booster drives are effective, the level of covid in circulation in the community won't matter. it's like obsessing over the fact that millions of people are carrying the common cold at any time.

vaccination was never going to do anything about the infectivity or contagion of covid. as soon as societies re-opened, the case numbers were always going to rise. we are a long, long way past the point of utilizing a 'suppression' strategy to disappear covid. never going to happen. get your booster shot and move on.

surely the 'worst case prognosis' would be a new mutation that trumps the vaccines. that would be a nightmare scenario, truly. a total reset back to where we were 2 years ago. saying that higher case numbers than last year is a 'worst case' is pretty lulz. of course the case numbers are higher ... society is basically behaving as if it's back to normal.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,936|5889|USA

Anecdotally, numbers of worn masks have been going down at and around where I live depending on location. The indoor mask mandate is still in effect, but I've never seen it enforced. People were pretty good about it for most of the year, though. Also depending, some people still social distance and sometimes the markings are still even on the floor, but I'm seeing more people invade personal spaces in queues.

FWP today, I didn't survive two years of pandemic just for someone to keep schlepping uncomfortably within pickpocket range in a 15 minute line, stop breathing down my neck and stand back a pace please. If we had visible anime auras, they'd be thoroughly and awkwardly merged like in one of those strangely intimate standoff-and-size-up scenes. "Show me the full extent of your power!"
Larssen
Member
+71|1005

uziq wrote:

case numbers don't mean anything when vaccination enters the picture, though.

the problem is right there: 10–30% of the population are still unvaccinated.

the only people turning up critically ill in UK wards now are unvaccinated. the virus can firestorm all it wants and reach case numbers in the 100,000s: if vaccination and booster drives are effective, the level of covid in circulation in the community won't matter. it's like obsessing over the fact that millions of people are carrying the common cold at any time.

vaccination was never going to do anything about the infectivity or contagion of covid. as soon as societies re-opened, the case numbers were always going to rise. we are a long, long way past the point of utilizing a 'suppression' strategy to disappear covid. never going to happen. get your booster shot and move on.

surely the 'worst case prognosis' would be a new mutation that trumps the vaccines. that would be a nightmare scenario, truly. a total reset back to where we were 2 years ago. saying that higher case numbers than last year is a 'worst case' is pretty lulz. of course the case numbers are higher ... society is basically behaving as if it's back to normal.
It was assumed that vaccination of over 70% of the population plus moderate restrictions would stem the infection rate to a point where a full lockdown would not be necessary. The delta variant is ripping through these places as though the basic measures & restrictions enacted by governments have almost no effect.

This does not bode well. The virus most affects countries with longer, colder winters and older populations. Northern Europe may get fucked every year by covid. Is 100% vaccination realistically attainable? Not without some measures that people at present would consider illegal/unethical.

Edit:
Well another variant possibly even more contageous and vaccine resistant than delta has shown up.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59424269

Take your bets on how long it'll take for this one to become the dominant global strain. Fuck this shit yall

Last edited by Larssen (2021-11-25 14:06:50)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,756|5224|eXtreme to the maX
Its OK, vaccines will save us, no need for any other controls, we can travel wherever we want right now.
#Freed Britney !
uziq
Member
+426|2570
it’s honestly like talking to two not very intelligent planks.

dilbert you’ve been repeating the same thing for 15 pages. nobody is advocating relying only on vaccines. but vaccination, by far, makes the most significant difference and is surely the route out of this thing towards something like ‘normalcy’. no vaccine, closed societies. no vaccine, mass death. it’s as simple as that.

well done at linking a news article larssen. i just mentioned 3 posts ago that there’s been several variants of concern this winter. it’s going to be that way, every winter … forever. coronaviruses mutate. genomic sequencing and serology labs will be looking out for this sort of thing for the foreseeable future. it’s prudent and it’s good epidemiology.

feel free to lose your mind every time a news story surfaces about a variant. you are honestly wasting your time. may as well tear your hair out every time the tides come in.

i’m reading scientific papers at the coal face of this unfolding picture every day. there’s literally dozens of such variants/sub-strains out there right now. it’s impossible to tell at first what’s a blip or small cluster and what’s the next globally dominant strain. it’s just as possible that delta will have edged the evolutionary advantage and 95% of all other strains will eventually die out.

once again:
covid is never going to disappear.
covid is never going to stop mutating.
seasonal swings and variations are always going to happen.

keep sitting on the internet complaining about tourism or whatever though. it sounds like a very rational thing to do.

Last edited by uziq (2021-11-25 15:44:44)

uziq
Member
+426|2570

Dilbert_X wrote:

we can travel wherever we want right now.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ … ern-africa
Flights from six countries will be banned as officials review travel measures after scientists voice concern over variant

wow ... people are using ... additional measures as well as vaccines. amazing, isn't it?

this is good epidemiology. high serological activity to keep an eye out for any possible nastiness, and responsive measures taken.

we simply do not know what the next killer variant will be, if ever. but what makes more sense: living in a state of semi-shutdown forever, or responding as best as we can to a fluidly changing picture?

do try and remember that some people desire more from this life than you sat in your parents' compound.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,756|5224|eXtreme to the maX
Yes, lets wait until after viruses have mutated and already spread into the global travel system before we think about restricting travel

it’s impossible to tell at first what’s a blip or small cluster and what’s the next globally dominant strain. it’s just as possible that delta will have edged the evolutionary advantage and 95% of all other strains will eventually die out.
Lets allow free and uninhibited travel everywhere in the meantime so the dominant strain can be sure to spread.

do try and remember that some people desire more from this life than you sat in your parents' compound
Do try and remember some people desire to not die just so some idiot can party in a different time zone or gawp at stuff.
#Freed Britney !
uziq
Member
+426|2570
stopping travel doesn't have any measurable impact on the rate of mutation, dilbert. this latest variant of concern which has gripped the media and politician's attention originated in botswana. not exactly a travel hot spot. covid is going to mutate and keep trying out new combinations for evolutionary advantage FOREVER. you could instate a global travel ban and force people to remain within 25 km of their homes for the rest of all time, covid would still continue to mutate between generations. that's how evolution works. are you new to this stuff?

i'm not going to disagree with you that travel restrictions should/could be in place to try and contain nasty new strains. that's a sensible curtailment of freedom and a good protective measure – in the short term. to 'suppress' a new strain, though, you need a host of other things which are vastly more important than pulling up the drawbridge on air corridors. you need widespread and in-depth genomic sequencing of covid, for one. suppressing a new strain and starving it out of existence in its infancy requires, in fact, a global network of highly funded labs to do the serology work. right now we can't even organize ourselves to distribute a cheap vaccine to the global south. so i'm a little skeptical about our chances of keeping up with covid's many, many permutations 'in real time'. but there we are.

if you 'desire not to die' i recommend you take a vaccine and get your seasonal booster. it's by far the best protection against serious illness and death. good luck!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,756|5224|eXtreme to the maX
Its already escaped the area, too late to put in travel restrictions now.
#Freed Britney !
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,756|5224|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

suppressing a new strain and starving it out of existence in its infancy requires, in fact, a global network of highly funded labs to do the serology work.
How does 'doing serology' after the event 'starve a strain out of existence'?

It doesn't achieve anything does it?

Its a given new strains will develop, waiting they've developed and travelled before thinking about travel restrictions is literally closing the door after the horse has bolted. You know why stables have doors and you don't really want horses running off, or do I need to find a dozen peer reviewed papers to explain it?

Wouldn't it have been great if this had been restricted to Wuhan, then it could have been starved out of existence, not had the whole world as its petri dish.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2021-11-25 16:11:54)

#Freed Britney !
uziq
Member
+426|2570
well i have always been telling you, in fact, that the idea of travel restrictions giving '100% foolproof protection' is a naive fantasy of control.

it's like you oscillate between calling for the most stringent measures and, alternately, throwing your hands up in the air at the pointlessness of it all.

i wonder which one of us has a more realistic and pragmatic grip on this subject? really make u think.

but, yes, you're right, especially considering most of the world's population are unvaccinated and reside in undeveloped and/or high-density backwaters, where there isn't a cutting-edge serology lab and highly trained scientists on every street corner, it's very unlikely that we'll ever be able to truly nip harmful new strains 'in the bud'.

temporarily closing down travel corridors is 'good epidemiology' in that it seems prudent, and certainly gives the illusion of control and meaningful action from the politicians in charge (ahem), but, yes, it's probably also true that if a highly effective new mutation develops somewhere, that we are in fact powerless to stop it gaining global ascendancy over a long enough time period. once again, this isn't ebola we are talking about. some of the highly transmissible, hardy strains of covid can survive on surfaces for days; for some people covid seems to remain in a latent and undetectable phase for 3+ weeks.

Board footer

Privacy Policy - © 2021 Jeff Minard