BF2S Forums Pandemic thread

He said young people need to listen to public health warnings that they are not “invulnerable to serious consequences” of the virus. Even healthy people in their 20s and 30s could end up sick for a long time and, more dangerously, sicken those who are more vulnerable.

“They are propagating the outbreak, Fauci said in an interview via social media with his departmental boss, National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins.

He finished on a galvanizing note.

“We have already suffered through a lot of pain, a lot of economic and personal pain and inconvenience.”

But “science will get us through this,” he said. “Hang in there, it will end.”

It’s hard to know how Fauci keeps calm and carries on when he is so frequently undermined by his inexpert, willfully misleading bosses Donald Trump and Mike Pence.

Whether Fauci privately screams “I told you so” into a cushion of an evening and shadow boxes to psych himself up in the morning to tackle another day of trying to stem the tide of information from the rest of the White House is anyone’s guess.

Fauci told US states and cities not to reopen for business until they had had two weeks of declining new cases of coronavirus and had greatly expanded testing for the virus as well as ensuring there was enough hospital capacity and medical supplies to meet local needs.

He was ignored by many governors of states that are now hastily reversing some of their reopenings that they steamrollered through in haste without meeting any of Fauci’s guidelines.

And now, as Fauci pointed out last night, the US is setting records on Covid, such as a world high of new cases in a day, last week when the US confirmed more than 55,000 new infections on Thursday, and states such as Florida, Arizona and Texas - among the loudest flouters of warnings to be cautious - are seeing alarming rates of infection and the hospitalization of serious cases.

This despite Vice President Mike Pence, head of the White House coronavirus task force, hailing “truly remarkable progress” on the pandemic - when the scientists keep telling us it is nowhere near under control in the US.

Last edited by uziq (2020-07-07 10:33:25)

SuperJail Warden wrote:

In other news, total U.S. COVID cases passed 3 million today which is a little less than 1% of the total U.S. population. At a rate of 50,000 new cases a day, we should pass 1% of the population infected by Sunday.

Also the 133,000 deaths we have recorded, keep in mind we are under reporting, brings the lethally rate of COVID to be 4.5%. It is 56 days until schools reopen in September. Assuming we just hold steady at 45,000 new infections a day, we would have 2.5 million more cases in time for school. 4.5% mortality rate equals 113,000 more dead for a grand total of about 250,000 dead.

Now you could say there is no way we are going to double the amount of dead in that short amount of time but people also said I was crazy for saying the opening/protest spike was coming. Daily infections have doubled from this time 2 weeks ago.

Every day my life is

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th2hjojlJUA

KEN-JENNINGS wrote:

both are under counted. But we are nowhere near 50% infected like you think, Jay.

Jay wrote:

KEN-JENNINGS wrote:

both are under counted. But we are nowhere near 50% infected like you think, Jay.

When i said that, I was only referring to NYC and it was anecdotal. Turns out I was fairly close. We're around 30% right now. So, roughly 2.3 million in NYC alone, not counting suburbs.

KEN-JENNINGS wrote:

assuming it was a statistical analysis, they select a group and then test, then extrapolate the results.

For example, they selected 1500 people for the study, in line with the demographic, and tested them. Within that 1500 person set, 30% had antibodies.

Without looking at the actual study that those results were pulled from, I can't say how the analysis was done (and I'm too lazy to look it up), but it seems they would not look at just those who took an antibody test AND tested positive for antibodies to come up with that 30% number.

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

You don't need to test 30% of the population to find out that 30% have antibodies. You need a robust enough sample size that you then extrapolate. You may only need to test 3,000 people to find 3 million have gotten sick if the sample is random enough.

This is exactly what I thought you would say.

You have to seek out the antibody test. It is not a random sample of people. It is a sample of people willing to seek out the test.

You're completely ignorant, but you're going to argue anyway because you don't like the answer. Believe what you like. You hiding in your house for eternity has no impact on my life.

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

This is exactly what I thought you would say.

You have to seek out the antibody test. It is not a random sample of people. It is a sample of people willing to seek out the test.

You're completely ignorant, but you're going to argue anyway because you don't like the answer. Believe what you like. You hiding in your house for eternity has no impact on my life.

Please tell me how I am wrong then.

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

You're completely ignorant, but you're going to argue anyway because you don't like the answer. Believe what you like. You hiding in your house for eternity has no impact on my life.

Please tell me how I am wrong then.

You don't have to seek out anything. They found people shopping at supermarkets and asked to test them at random. Yes, this requires people to say yes, but so does any sampling. Does anyone require pollsters to put a gun to peoples head to get a perfect sample? No. They find people that are motivated and then factor in the unmotivated. "Oh, but what about the shutin!?!?" Do you think not one single shutin got sick? Ok. It was 30% +- 4% meaning its somewhere in the range between 26% and 34%. It's still millions of people just in NYC.