BF2S Forums Investment

SuperJail Warden wrote:

I mean its not random sample. Is that the prefer science term? I majored in history.

Last edited by Jay (2020-05-21 09:34:48)

Larssen wrote:

Jay wrote:

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing

12.3% is in the believable but they don't say much about the degree of confidence. There's around 8 or 9 million people in NYC? Is 15k a large enough pool to make such definitive statements? There's still quite a lot of room for variation here, also due to testing locations etc.

Regardless, 12.3% isn't nearly enough to say that herd immunity is at an acceptable level or that most of the high risk have already been hit. On the contrary, it's still a limited amount of people who were infected, and the situation was bad enough that emergency hospitals had to be built and your governor scrambled for ventilators. Imagine what would happen if double or triple that number is infected dude.

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

I mean its not random sample. Is that the prefer science term? I majored in history.

It's not a perfectly random sample, no. A perfectly random sample would require calling people at random out of the phone book and having them come in for testing. Even then you have some bias because not everyone will agree to it. This is a fairly decent way to do it. Not perfect, but adequate for obtaining rough numbers.

It's the same idea as election polling. You call X% of houses representing the population at large. You don't call every single person and ask their opinion.

Election polling is famously bad too.

Hertz, which started with a fleet of a dozen Ford Model T’s a century ago and became one of the world’s largest car rental companies, filed for bankruptcy protection on Friday after falling victim to its mountain of debt.

The coronavirus pandemic has devastated Hertz by grounding business travelers and tourists, making it impossible for the company to continue paying its lenders. A sharp drop in used car prices has also decreased the value of its fleet.

The biggest shopping center in the country, The Mall of America, has missed two months of payments on its $1.4 billion mortgage, a sign of just how much retail real estate owners are reeling during the coronavirus pandemic.

The mall, operated by private developers Triple Five Group, skipped mortgage payments in April and May, according to Trepp, a New York-based research firm that tracks the commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, market.

Pochsy wrote:

Dilbert_X wrote:

Just remember, China can implode your whole economy by not buying your worthless bonds.

I mean, sure, but it's mutually assured destruction if that happens. Who China gunna sell their shit to?

Peter Temin says the world's’ largest economy has roads and bridges that look more like those in Thailand and Venezuela than those in parts of Europe.

In his new book, “The Vanishing Middle Class", reviewed by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Mr Temin says the fracture of US society is leading the middle class to disappear. The economist describes a two-track economy with on the one hand 20 per cent of the population that is educated and enjoys good jobs and supportive social networks.

On the other hand, the remaining 80 per cent, he said, are part of the US’ low-wage sector, where the world of possibility has shrunk and people are burdened with debts and anxious about job security.

Mr Temin used a model, which was created by Nobel Prize winner Arthur Lewis and designed to understand developing nations, to describe how far inequalities have progressed in the US.

When applied to the US, Mr Temin said that “the Lewis model actually works”.

Last edited by uziq (2020-06-04 20:25:27)