BF2S Forums Pandemic thread

Last edited by Larssen (2020-05-06 08:02:16)

Larssen wrote:

It's all because a certain media group has convinced its viewership covid19 was and is just a big hoax. That is the fundamental problem here. Jay is still claiming it is all just some overblown flu.

I believe these people have serious issues wrapping their heads around numbers and are strictly visual thinkers. When 9/11 happened the image of collapsing twin towers meant this was serious shit, but why worry about something you can't see.

There's so much irony in his position, here too, as you'd expect an engineer to be capable of basic math and understand that 68k dead in 30 days is pretty damn bad.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-05-06 08:22:15)

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

in this pandemic i see only one group who are acting and reacting out of fear. only one group who are taking to the streets, shouting at nurses, storming into state capitols with their guns. shouting. panicking. jay's enemy seem to be fine with staying inside and making sacrifices for the public weal. do these people have to convince themselves that the people following guidance are doing so out of perpetual fear? isn't it all just projection?

remember how snappy and short-tempered jay was when he had covid? i'm sure that wasn't anxiety-driven or fear-related at all. and now he's on the other side of his bout, everyone else is a pussy and jay is the level-headed master of the universe. let's wait and see what happens when he catches a second bout this fall. because that is exactly what is going to happen if new york state don't get on top of this thing. there are currently two major strains active in america at the moment, one seemingly much worse than the other, and mutated in a way that might make its reinfection window drastically shorter. jay can test his own courage.

Yeah, it was a huge sacrifice on your part to sit at home, collect a paycheck, and force people to bring you food, and keep your lights on, and your water running. You thought nothing of the people that keep your day-to-day life going because you had a job that allowed you to sit home, scared and safe. Don't try to act like you made some noble sacrifice for the greater good.

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-06 08:49:29)

uziq wrote:

except every scientist and epidemiologist in the world disagrees with you.

the total death rate is vastly under-reported, too. we are barely even managing to keep tabs on our closely adjacent private hospitals and care homes. we have no idea how many cases are raging in care homes at the moment, despite a heavy overlap between them and the NHS. as for people dying in private in the population, in their homes, who knows? the tests aren't being done, exactly as you say.

total cases are undoubtedly bigger than recorded. but so are total deaths. as i said yesterday, italy just upped their estimate for dead by 16,000. china re-estimated their total dead and upped it by +50% (allowing for china's political malfeasance). this is what happens when people pause to try and get a grip on the scale of things. total dead rises too.

your math is bad. you are running the best-case scenario, one which does not accord with the reality reported by frontline medical workers or the data scientists running the figures on this.

Larssen wrote:

There is an added insanity in the idea that medical professionals in hospitals throughout the world are sounding alarm bells because they're being flooded by a historic pandemic, and here's Jay to tell them they're all full of shit.

Last edited by Jay (2020-05-06 08:54:28)

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

except every scientist and epidemiologist in the world disagrees with you.

the total death rate is vastly under-reported, too. we are barely even managing to keep tabs on our closely adjacent private hospitals and care homes. we have no idea how many cases are raging in care homes at the moment, despite a heavy overlap between them and the NHS. as for people dying in private in the population, in their homes, who knows? the tests aren't being done, exactly as you say.

total cases are undoubtedly bigger than recorded. but so are total deaths. as i said yesterday, italy just upped their estimate for dead by 16,000. china re-estimated their total dead and upped it by +50% (allowing for china's political malfeasance). this is what happens when people pause to try and get a grip on the scale of things. total dead rises too.

your math is bad. you are running the best-case scenario, one which does not accord with the reality reported by frontline medical workers or the data scientists running the figures on this.

Ok

add to this picture that covid-19 has seemingly mutated and got worse. a more aggressive european strain is now establishing itself as the main culprit showing up in tests worldwide. a more infectious version has emerged and could possibly bring with it shorter reinfection windows and a higher risk of mortality. against your best-case scenario positive thinking mantra, there's an equally possible bad scenario. the spanish flu? the vast majority of deaths were recorded by people catching it on a second wind, a reinfection several months later. the virus mutated and cleaned up. we simply do not know if that's the direction it's taking at the moment.

it's not abnormal for 100,000 Americans to die in a flu season. 50,000 seems to be about the average.

those are annual stats. even if the daily/weekly deaths for covid-19 remained at their current levels, it would far outstrip flu. we're only just into may.

Last edited by Jay (2020-05-06 08:59:13)