BF2S Forums Pandemic thread

In Jay's minimal defense, there is an element of mass hysteria and media narrative at play. The "fear pandemic." But it's not unreasonable for people to be frightened at this point. There are a lot of unknowns to work through, and we don't know exactly how it will turn out in the end. Certainly not based on some "I lived through SARS" bravado or President Trump remarking on the sunny day. Some governments responded well to this thing, some not so much.

Meanwhile, the educated opinions of virologists and epidemiologists (mainstream media for sure /s) on their own field of study are being dismissed as idiocy. Surreal.

It's weird how Jay gets to badger uzique about, whatever this means: "having no real responsibility and having done no real work" in regard to diminishing the worth of his opinions. In the exact same thread Jay rejects an epidemiologists opinion on a pandemic.

Unwavering regard for merited thought.

People who have never done any deep learning or research but only rote learning have no understanding of the scientific method or the people who do.

Whats that effect where ignorant people are more arrogant and opinionated than educated people?

I'm sure someone who has wiped snot off his kids nose has more understanding of coronavirus than a Professor in epidemiology.

Dilbert_X wrote:

People who have never done any deep learning or research but only rote learning have no understanding of the scientific method or the people who do.

Whats that effect where ignorant people are more arrogant and opinionated than educated people?

I'm sure someone who has wiped snot off his kids nose has more understanding of coronavirus than a Professor in epidemiology.

it's called the dunning–kruger effect.

Jay wrote:

https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/03/restaurant-fired-staff-coronavirus-new-york.html

Citing this article to toss in the wind reports about this disaster from every expert there is is absolutely willful ignorance. As if they don't know, and as if we don't understand what the real-life consequences of the quarantine measures are. It's a choice between millions of dead people and millions of unemployed. As I said before, pick your poison. Don't believe it? The entire US population would be infected with the virus in about 150 days if left unchecked, you can calculate it yourself based on the current global daily growth rate (7.8%). Higher risks patients are those with asthma, heart conditions, diabetes, obesity - the dead will include a lot of young.

The real problem is that you live in a deeply selfish society that will let these people out in the cold because solidarity is an alien word in the United States. The great ideal of self-reliance comes tumbling down in a time of national crisis, as now it becomes painfully apparent that there has never been a safety net for anyone who has to suffer because of circumstances out of their control. A reality comfortably ignored for decades. I'm sure the federal reserve can drum up another 1,5 trillion for the stock market, but as you said "there will be riots!". Well, good luck.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-03-16 23:56:57)

uziq wrote:

only one of those came from harvesting exotic animals but nevermind. the rest are precisely cases of people foraging for bushmeat. i asked you before how you’re going to stop a poor african from foraging for available meat like they have done for generations. it has nothing to do with flashy chinese people wanting to eat high-status exotic meats. it’s part of many peoples basic daily diet and sustenance.

how are you going to stop that? it’s far more realistic to talk about international collaboration on quarantine and containment rather than trying to control people from picking up animals in their back yard.

By exotic I meant exotic from a western perspective.

These people wouldn't need to forage for bushmeat if they were organised enough to farm chickens, which lets face it doesn't take a lot of organising.

Jay wrote:

America is like a family that fights with each other constantly. We'll sit there and pummel each other all day long but when there is an external threat, or even an internal one to rally against, we'll drop our differences and unite against the threat in a heartbeat. Why? There's no hatred within the family, just drama.

Jay wrote:

We're going to end up with riots and looting in a weeks time. Mark my words.

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

only one of those came from harvesting exotic animals but nevermind. the rest are precisely cases of people foraging for bushmeat. i asked you before how you’re going to stop a poor african from foraging for available meat like they have done for generations. it has nothing to do with flashy chinese people wanting to eat high-status exotic meats. it’s part of many peoples basic daily diet and sustenance.

how are you going to stop that? it’s far more realistic to talk about international collaboration on quarantine and containment rather than trying to control people from picking up animals in their back yard.

By exotic I meant exotic from a western perspective.

These people wouldn't need to forage for bushmeat if they were organised enough to farm chickens, which lets face it doesn't take a lot of organising.

avian flu comes from chicken farming as well as other bird-based interactions (like droppings getting in the food supply).

you’re really going to have to go back to the drawing board with your stupid racist fantasies. ‘everyone worldwide should stop eating meat, we over-consume protein, bla bla bla’

We do over-consume protein, to the point people get angry when its suggested they cut back - you included. Why so angry?

Properly farmed livestock does not need to give us zoonotic diseases.

The world is overpopulated, especially in asia, so people literally live on top of their livestock pens and slaughterhouses or have to go foraging for whatever they can find up a tree or under a rock.

Meanwhile the Chinese are now threatening that if anyone criticises their behaviour in generating this pandemic they'll take advantage of the monopoly they now hold on many products, pharmaceuticals and medical protective equipment, and cut off the supply to the world.

Hopefully this is the wake up call the world needed and people like uziq who sneered at grubby manufacturers losing their businesses to state-owned Chinese operations will take the message.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-03-17 02:54:09)

Well clearly we do need a school-of-dilbert to educate the masses.
Haven't the Swedes effectively eliminated salmonella? It can be done, there's no reason it should reach the human food chain.

Apart from that if shit gets really bad I'm going to my best to:

Set my share portfolio for the future, hard to pick bottom, as soon as a vaccine is announced the market will bounce 30% in a day, it could drop another 30% in the meantime. Tricky.

Do my duty and keep spending locally. I'm embarassingly awash with cash and nowhere useful to put it.
The local micro cinema looks doomed, it was already, not much I can do about that.
I may even buy a new (Japanese) car. Probably the used market will have better bargains.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-03-17 03:06:23)

lol, boohoo for poor fucking jay. he has to figure out what to do with his two hateful children in the house for a few months.

you have no idea about his 'very real fears and concerns!'

lmfao hahahahaha

uziq wrote:

i'm not angry about cutting back protein. we're dealing with a disease from pangolin scales.

Money seems to be on bats at present, it'll shake out eventually.

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

i'd rather not let 1.2 million people go to worm's meal, jay, because you're upset about the fake stock market numbers for your fake successful president's fake bubble.

also i'm pretty sure car crashes don't turn public places into zones of contagion where exponentially more people get sick and exponentially more people die.

letting a virus firestorm through a population is just inviting further mutation and super-infections. that's what caused the mass loss of life in the 1918 spanish influenza -- letting two strains essentially combine, the immune system version of a fire cyclone. no thank you.

how is your health system meant to magically adapt to having its intensive care units at 100% capacity dealing with a novel disease? what happens when your ma has a stroke, or your favourite uncle has a heart attack? where are they going to go? the 1.2 million figure dying is due to ICU overspill. are you happy for ICU overspill to be the new normal? are you thick or something?

Right, so the stock market is not the economy. The economy is the interactions between businesses and individuals that take place every day. Something as small as being able to go to the store without living in fear of the person next to you while you purchase goods has a ripple effect throughout the world. Right now, societal trust has completely collapsed. People aren't greeting each other with handshakes or getting within 6 feet of each other. We're all joking about "the new normal", but it's not a joke. Everyone is stressed the fuck out right now.

What I am seeing ahead of me is a Depression. I am seeing my entire city shut down, something that has never happened ever for anything. All kids are home for the next month. Restaurants, bars, cinemas, theaters, sports venues, concerts, etc are all shut down. As of today, I'm being asked to work from home on even numbered days. Millions of people were just sent to the unemployment lines because my governor wanted to upstage Trump and "do the right thing". What's the damage from this next week, or month, or a year from now? Will all these people be homeless? Will they still be looking for work? Will people ever get over their fears and return to the restaurants? What happens to the rest of the economy when these people run out of money and can't buy things? What industry is next? Retail? Construction? It's all linked together. No one can plan ahead for anything right now and that is the scary part.

For a parent like me, I have to figure out what to do with my kids for the next month. What do I do with a 3 year old and a 5 year old that keeps them entertained when we can't leave the house or have their friends over for play dates? This is my personal dilemma, and it's being shared by people across my state right now. What happens to my job if the economy shuts down? These are very real fears and concerns. To you, this is all a lark. To me, it's fucking deadly serious real life stuff.

yes jay, what you are seeing is a once in a hundred years’ pandemic event. go back to the second post in this thread. look at my very first reply. what did i say? what page are we on now? are you coming around to it?

to me this is a lark? hey jay, fuck you. nothing matters to you until it affects your bottom line. you can leave iraqi girls in the rubble so long as you get a fucking air con certificate. you’ll say shit like ‘only 1.2 million americans a year are going to die? big deal! 40,000 people die a year in car crashes. bring it on!’ do you have any idea how callous that is? you sound like a fucking grub. really, go and examine yourself.

i’ve got two elderly grand parents with heart conditions, both high-risk, who now according to UK rules will have to go into isolation for 3-4 months. i’ve got an uncle with MS, who is high risk. my parents are 60+ and high risk. none of this is even exceptional — everyone has loved ones that they care about and this will affect.

my younger brother is in a coma, my entire family life is based around a high-wire balancing act of people trying to work full-time, pay their bills (and pay his expensive medical bills), and keep a constant rota of daily company for him. at the same time, half my family work in medicine. see what’s coming? coronavirus, as in washington state for example, rips through care homes full of immunocompromised people in a matter of hours. none are saveable and none are worth saving, in fact, when it’s a matter of intensive care wards being full of the young and healthy requiring ventilation. my brother’s neurological hospice are going to shut their doors and bar any visitors. my mother is going to have to move in there, live and sleep on a bunk on the floor next to his hospital bed, and effectively quit her job as a pharmacist. i’m going to have to step in and cover a lot more financially; and i’m also not going to be able to see my parents, grandparents, or severely ill brother for several months, in the knowledge that all of them are at very high risk of dying. 

tell me again it’s a lark jay. the difference is i have no problem with reading expert opinion and admitting the facts. you are an intellectual retard and a moral coward.

I'm well aware how callous it is to say things like that. I'm also well aware that suppression won't work. We live in free societies, with free movement, free travel, and international supply chains. This suppression crap is akin to what happened during the Black Death when people used to wall off the roads and kill travelers in order to avoid contamination. It didn't work and people still died. Every measure my governor is now taking is going to fail. He can't block travel between states. He can't shut down the borders or stop air travel. He can't stop people from defying his orders and congregating anyway. There are always people that will ignore warnings. Always.

And this is why we're having the same argument we always do about everything. It comes down to this: you feel helpless and scared in the world and want to exert some control over it, so you demand that your government agents do something to regain control. Everything is catastrophized. Global warming, plastic in the oceans, Komy, it's not just you, it's everyone of a certain thought pattern that does the same thing. In America, those people tend to be Progressives and they are in control of my state government. I feel that my state government has overreacted. I feel that it has put millions of people out of work for what will amount to no good reason. Millions of lives are being damaged so that a vocal minority can feel like they have some control. This is why I am bitter.

I am not callous. I do not want people to die. I do not want my parents or my in-laws, or my many aunts and uncles who are all in retirement age to die. I am simply being realistic. We don't live on easily isolated farmsteads anymore. We live in major cities with constant deliveries of goods, goods that have to be manufactured someplace. You can't shut down all the farms, or the packing plants, or the canneries, or the places that make building materials etc. Mechanics still need to go to work to repair vehicles. You can't shut down all the vectors for disease or stop it's travel. We're all too connected.

You have dinged me for not being an idealist in the past, well, here's another example. I am not an idealist. I am a realist and, I am, as always, pessimistic about the extents of political power and what it is capable of. I don't think this is doing anything to stem the tide. Color me unimpressed by your statistical models. For all I know, they're written by the same people that try to whip up hysteria about global warming by focusing on only the most conservative, dire, estimates and reacting to that.