Right to exist and prosper without undue harrassment/suppression and all that.
#armchairgeneral
For Ukraine I'm picking:
- Russia occupies pro-RU parts of Ukraine
- Ukraine protests, but can't/won't do much as Russia has the numbers/tech advantage, and chunks of Ukraine's military are loyal to Russia
- Ukraine to split into pro-EU and pro-RU parts. Referendum will be held.
- EU won't do much militarily. Not because of an inability to act, but because the EU realises it's in their interests not to move troops and tanks around. Russia isn't trying to increase influence, it's trying to retain influence, and even if UKR splits the EU still gains something without really having to do much.
- Maybe UKR gets military aid after the split.
- US makes some noise, drives some sanctions which don't really achieve anything but make it look like it's doing something. Obama and Putin are still friends.