Arctic Sea Ice Continues Decline, Hits 2nd-Lowest Level

2011-10-15 05:42:43

#76

Shocking: sorry you feel that way; +333|6256|...

Based on everything? In the context of this thread, arctic ice is receding faster than predicted. The people who create the models even admit that they can't account for every aspect of GW, which is to be expected because it's an enormously complex process.

inane little opines

2011-10-15 05:44:27

#77

Spark: liquid fluoride thorium reactor; +874|6932|Canberra, AUS

that's a rubbish argument man. if you're going to say the models are dodgy then actually go and find examples of where the long-term climactic models break down.

The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
^{~ Richard Feynman}

2011-10-15 06:07:06

#78

Shocking: sorry you feel that way; +333|6256|...

I was reciting that from a video presentation I saw two years ago of a climate scientist outlining the problems with their models. The bottomline was that there still is a lot of uncertainty because of the inherent shortcomings with computer generated models. You want me to tell you why they are failing? I don't even know how these models are made, go ask the IPCC about that. All I know is that in many cases they do fail, as proven by the fact that arctic ice is receding faster than expected, ocean pH dropping faster than expected, that ozone holes aren't healing as fast as predicted and many other events occuring differently than was predicted.

inane little opines

2011-10-15 06:13:08

#79

Spark: liquid fluoride thorium reactor; +874|6932|Canberra, AUS

you're talking about specifics. not trends.

the ocean pH dropping a bit faster than expected - but the point it it's still dropping! that is the critical issue here. it should not be dropping on timescale discernible to real-time measurement.

The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
^{~ Richard Feynman}

2011-10-15 06:18:31

#80

Shocking: sorry you feel that way; +333|6256|...

How can you take appropriate action if the models are wrong by years if not decades? They form the basis for claims that something has to be done in X timescale, pretty much the core of the political debate.

inane little opines

2011-10-15 06:21:44

#81

Jay: Bork! Bork! Bork!; +2,006|5615|London, England

Spark, there are just too many variables to be accurate. I guarantee they have a ton of them they write off as constants but which small variations of cause havoc.

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat

2011-10-15 06:23:59

#82

Jay: Bork! Bork! Bork!; +2,006|5615|London, England

Thermodynamics of an open system where you can't even measure most of the variables.

Last edited by Jay (2011-10-15 06:24:26)

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat

2011-10-15 06:27:34

#83

Spark: liquid fluoride thorium reactor; +874|6932|Canberra, AUS

Jay wrote:
Thermodynamics of an open system where you can't even measure most of the variables.

welcome to modern science.

ed: this applies even more strongly to the previous post...

Last edited by Spark (2011-10-15 06:29:15)

The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
^{~ Richard Feynman}

2011-10-15 06:51:23

#84

Jay: Bork! Bork! Bork!; +2,006|5615|London, England

Spark wrote:
Jay wrote:
Thermodynamics of an open system where you can't even measure most of the variables.
welcome to modern science.

ed: this applies even more strongly to the previous post...

Which is why I have little faith in their models. Their control variable is carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Any variation in that and it's automatically human caused.

Sorry, I know the limitations of mathematics enough to know that the models are imprecise to the point of silliness. Simplifying a system as large as the Earth into a half dozen variables is pure hubris.

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat

2011-10-15 07:03:02

#85

Spark: liquid fluoride thorium reactor; +874|6932|Canberra, AUS

I was actually making the complete opposite point, but fair enough.

The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
^{~ Richard Feynman}

2011-10-15 15:53:12

#86

unnamednewbie13: Moderator; +2,053|7029|PNW

FEOS wrote:
Macbeth wrote:
How many scientific papers have you ever read FEOS? They tend to make sweeping statements, conclusions, etc...

I don't understand the focus everyone is putting on that one line.
I'm an engineer and I'm in the business of technical testing.

So I've read (and written) a few...hundredish+. Hence why I pointed it out. Making a sweeping statement that is not tied to your study--and basing your conclusion on it--is flawed.

This.

You can fill a paper with as many facts and figures as you want, but if you put "the Earth is becoming flat" or "man's telepathic pollution is interfering with ant pheromones" at the bottom, people are naturally going to point it out. It just looks like you're trying to bolster a partial truth or untruth with with fact, and it undermines efforts to convince people of things.

2011-10-16 20:53:41

#87

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6858|132 and Bush

Macbeth wrote:
How many scientific papers have you ever read FEOS? They tend to make sweeping statements, conclusions, etc...

I don't understand the focus everyone is putting on that one line.

To be clear, I wasn't. I was just sourcing the content. Seemed like a more reasonable thing to do, rather than attack the story itself.

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2011-10-17 02:24:50

#88

Dilbert_X: The X stands for; +1,815|6363|eXtreme to the maX

FEOS wrote:
Macbeth wrote:
How many scientific papers have you ever read FEOS? They tend to make sweeping statements, conclusions, etc...

I don't understand the focus everyone is putting on that one line.
I'm an engineer and I'm in the business of technical testing.

So I've read (and written) a few...hundredish+. Hence why I pointed it out. Making a sweeping statement that is not tied to your study--and basing your conclusion on it--is flawed.

Oh come on, CIA do it all the time.

Fuck Israel

2011-10-17 03:02:59

#89

FEOS: Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate; +1,182|6668|'Murka

Dilbert_X wrote:
FEOS wrote:
Macbeth wrote:
How many scientific papers have you ever read FEOS? They tend to make sweeping statements, conclusions, etc...

I don't understand the focus everyone is putting on that one line.
I'm an engineer and I'm in the business of technical testing.

So I've read (and written) a few...hundredish+. Hence why I pointed it out. Making a sweeping statement that is not tied to your study--and basing your conclusion on it--is flawed.
Oh come on, CIA do it all the time.

We're talking about scientific papers, not intelligence reports. Two completely different genre.

“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein
Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular

2011-10-17 18:55:52

#90

Spark: liquid fluoride thorium reactor; +874|6932|Canberra, AUS

http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=1055

something to ponder.

i think we can all point and laugh at mclean whatever persuasion we come from.

Last edited by Spark (2011-10-17 18:57:41)

The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
^{~ Richard Feynman}

BF2S Forums Arctic Sea Ice Continues Decline, Hits 2nd-Lowest Level

Jay wrote:

Spark wrote:

Jay wrote:

FEOS wrote:

Macbeth wrote:

Macbeth wrote:

FEOS wrote:

Macbeth wrote:

Dilbert_X wrote:

FEOS wrote:

Macbeth wrote:

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