Social media bubble

2011-02-24 21:01:40

#1

Macbeth: Banned; +2,444|5844

Foursquare Value Checks In At $250 Million
...
Facebook Is Reportedly Worth $82.9 Billion
...
Twitter Now Worth $4 Billion

A few headlines regarding the value of some social media companies. Does anyone else think there might be a social media value bubble right now? I think the tech behind them is interesting but I don't think any of them have the money producing potential to justify those numbers.

What do you think? Would you invest in any of them if an IPO came around? I wouldn't.

2011-02-24 21:18:32

#2

Adams_BJ: Russian warship, go fuck yourself; +2,054|6881|Little Bentcock

TBH I don't even know how ad revenue could create that sorta money. I'd understand maybe a hundred million. But 82.9 BILLION!? That seems and aweful lot for essentially ad space, even though there are 500million members atm. I couldn't justify investing in it I don't think.

2011-02-24 21:21:59

#3

Macbeth: Banned; +2,444|5844

Adams_BJ wrote:
TBH I don't even know how ad revenue could create that sorta money.

Their values are based on how much investment money they have come up with. 99% of their worth is built on speculative stock purchases.

Last edited by Macbeth (2011-02-24 21:22:37)

2011-02-24 21:28:13

#4

Adams_BJ: Russian warship, go fuck yourself; +2,054|6881|Little Bentcock

I have no doubt that its popularity will grow, but I honistly doubt that it could stay at that value for very long. It just seems unstable. It shot up so high in such a short time it just has to crash.

2011-02-24 21:28:55

#5

unnamednewbie13: Moderator; +2,053|7030|PNW

Value on paper, to be sure.

2011-02-24 23:50:43

#6

Dilbert_X: The X stands for; +1,815|6365|eXtreme to the maX

Its a colossal bubble, look what happened to myspace.

It will only take one 'cool' person to declare Facebook is uncool, create an app which will port your facebook profile to another site and its done.
Maybe when people find out whats being done with their personal data.

Fuck Israel

2011-02-25 00:05:45

#7

Reciprocity: Member; +721|6839|the dank(super) side of Oregon

something "better" always comes along. in 10 years people will watch that facebook movie and be like, "wtf is facebook?"

2011-02-25 00:12:46

#8

Poseidon: Fudgepack DeQueef; +3,253|6796|Long Island, New York

Reciprocity wrote:
something "better" always comes along. in 10 years people will watch that facebook movie and be like, "wtf is facebook?"

I dunno. MySpace, from what I remember, never really came out with any revolutionary changes. Facebook? Well, IMO Facebook chat was the biggest thing ever for the site. Completely eliminated the use for AIM. Sure it's still kind of broken, but almost every single one of my friends communicates (electronically) through one of 3 ways: Texting, calling and Facebook chat. I know people keep thinking FB will go the way of MySpace, but I don't really see it when FB keeps adding new features and evolving. At least not for a good 15 years.

2011-02-25 00:49:19

#9

Reciprocity: Member; +721|6839|the dank(super) side of Oregon

fame is a fickle mistress. Facebook may survive, but it will have to stay in the good graces of popular culture, social whims and technology because that's what all its value is based on. social networking is a transient utility. just ask friendster and myspace.

2011-02-25 03:46:02

#10

FEOS: Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate; +1,182|6670|'Murka

Don't know about 15 years...

But it's not just ads on FB. They are linking with marketers, etc on new ways to leverage social networking media writ large. That in and of itself provides a value that you won't see tied to an ad revenue stream, and IMO, is probably what is propping up the p/e ratio as much as anything.

“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein
Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular

2011-02-25 05:06:35

#11

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6860|132 and Bush

Poseidon wrote:
Reciprocity wrote:
something "better" always comes along. in 10 years people will watch that facebook movie and be like, "wtf is facebook?"
I dunno. MySpace, from what I remember, never really came out with any revolutionary changes. Facebook? Well, IMO Facebook chat was the biggest thing ever for the site. Completely eliminated the use for AIM. Sure it's still kind of broken, but almost every single one of my friends communicates (electronically) through one of 3 ways: Texting, calling and Facebook chat. I know people keep thinking FB will go the way of MySpace, but I don't really see it when FB keeps adding new features and evolving. At least not for a good 15 years.

How many businesses did you see on myspace.. not many. How many now say "find us on facebook" .. a metric shit load. That is incentive enough to ensure longevity.

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2011-02-25 05:11:14

#12

Uzique: dasein.; +2,865|6729

twitter struggled for a very long time with its business model to make money out of its surging popularity and current user-craze.

i remember even with the iran protests... twitter were making peanuts... and that was its first 'fine' moment.

im glad to see it's doing well.

i think everything internet-based is a bubble... look at the dot. com boom. it's extremely short-term - but who cares? the money involved is massive and it doesn't really matter if it'll only last 5 years.

_{libertarian benefit collector - anti-academic super-intellectual}. _{http://mixlr.com/the-little-phrase/}

2011-02-25 05:14:06

#13

Uzique: dasein.; +2,865|6729

oh and i dont think facebook is a bubble... it has managed to culturally and socially ingrain itself into part of everyday life. especially for university students and networks of that sort - the original intent of the website. it has become almost essential to use facebook to keep up with university arrangements and networking... in the academic/business/career sense, and the personal and social side. myspace was a teen craze and a fad... twitter is novel and a bit of a gimmick, when all is said and done. facebook? it's hard to keep up with the social calendar if you don't have facebook. of course there was life before facebook and people managed... but it makes it so easy. i don't see why it would fall out of use in the way that a 'bubble' would suddenly burst.

Last edited by Uzique (2011-02-25 05:14:49)

_{libertarian benefit collector - anti-academic super-intellectual}. _{http://mixlr.com/the-little-phrase/}

2011-02-25 12:22:26

#14

11 Bravo: Banned; +965|5496|Cleveland, Ohio

myspace is a perfect example

2011-02-25 13:10:15

#15

unnamednewbie13: Moderator; +2,053|7030|PNW

I don't think Facebook is going anywhere anytime soon.

2011-02-25 13:49:53

#16

ghettoperson: Member; +1,943|6908

Agreed. Facebook is much too useful for people just to quit using it, and given that they're very much open to new ideas, I don't really see it falling behind and being replaced by something 'better' any time soon.

2011-02-25 13:53:20

#17

13rin: Member; +977|6738

It is a bubble.

I stood in line for four hours. They better give me a Wal-Mart gift card, or something. - Rodney Booker, Job Fair attendee.

2011-02-26 01:14:25

#18

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6860|132 and Bush

Adams_BJ wrote:
TBH I don't even know how ad revenue could create that sorta money.

Have you heard of google?

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2011-02-26 01:34:21

#19

Dilbert_X: The X stands for; +1,815|6365|eXtreme to the maX

Many people are steadily growing out of Facebook and moving into professional networks like linkedin.
That will leave facebook for kids, and kids are fickle.

Fuck Israel

2011-02-26 01:48:24

#20

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6860|132 and Bush

That will leave facebook for kids, and kids are fickle.

.. and the revolutionaries.

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2011-02-26 02:18:44

#21

Dilbert_X: The X stands for; +1,815|6365|eXtreme to the maX

The last Iranian unrest was based around twitter more than facebook was it not?

Fuck Israel

2011-02-26 02:24:57

#22

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6860|132 and Bush

I was thinking more recent.. http://forums.bf2s.com/viewtopic.php?id=142101

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2011-02-26 02:46:22

#23

tazz.: oz.; +1,338|6433|Sydney | ♥

facebook is the social google. It wont die imo.

Google doesnt allow ads on their homepage - and the ads on facebook are pretty small - I think that is the main reason people stopped using Myspace - The adds where nothing short of a joke.

All it is now is an indie music central

I find the apparent "Connect with facebook" on their homepage quite humorous.

EDIT:

Owait - Let me disable AD BLOCK!

Last edited by tazz. (2011-02-26 02:47:46)

^{everything i write is a ramble and should not be taken seriously.... _{seriously. ♥}}

2011-02-26 03:09:50

#24

Kmar: Truth is my Bitch; +5,695|6860|132 and Bush

tazz. wrote:
facebook is the social google. It wont die imo.

Google doesnt allow ads on their homepage - and the ads on facebook are pretty small - I think that is the main reason people stopped using Myspace - The adds where nothing short of a joke.

All it is now is an indie music central

I find the apparent "Connect with facebook" on their homepage quite humorous.

http://i.imgur.com/Wq4cB.jpg

EDIT:

Owait - Let me disable AD BLOCK!

http://i.imgur.com/wHCUB.jpg

I think people stopped using myspace because it was tacky, it allowed shady code to be inserted, and people dressed their pages up so fucking loud that you couldn't make heads or tails of it. FB may not let you design and personalize with wallpapers and music.. but I think that uniformity is one of it's best qualities. Myspace has tried to salvage it's base by focusing on the music aspect of their site.. but they are still having trouble.

Xbone Stormsurgezz

2011-02-26 06:10:16

#25

ghettoperson: Member; +1,943|6908

Dilbert_X wrote:
Many people are steadily growing out of Facebook and moving into professional networks like linkedin.
That will leave facebook for kids, and kids are fickle.

Linkedin is a completely different tool. It's for getting your CV out there, and networking. Linkedin is for your professional life, Facebook is for your personal life.

Obviously you hate Facebook, so you're probably not going to see that.

BF2S Forums Social media bubble

Adams_BJ wrote:

Reciprocity wrote:

Poseidon wrote:

Reciprocity wrote:

Adams_BJ wrote:

tazz. wrote:

Dilbert_X wrote:

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