AussieReaper wrote:
Even the announcement that the US was going to stimulate the economy further pushed the A$ above parity... so I don't see how it isn't going to happen until after a few months.
And it will last a couple of months, because the Australian economy is based on exports. Mineral and animal.
A high A$ makes these industries less competitive globally. So as the A$ climbs due to demand, our export market will suffer the negative effects and our economy will actually worsen.
By which time the effects of the US stimulus should have started to improve the US economy.
How hard is that a concept to understand?
The economy is not based on exports. We are a service based economy based around consumer spending.
As dilbert has said most contracts are based in $US, so a strengthening $AU will have no effect on global competitiveness, only on the exporters profit margins unless they hedged on currency changes.
A stimulus will have no effect for at least 12 months, and more likely take 18-24 months to see results. I can no reason way the $AU will not stay above parity for at least 6 months if not 12-18months.
Last edited by DrunkFace (2010-11-05 05:04:50)