BF2S Forums Double-dip recession imminent

Reciprocity wrote:

JohnG@lt wrote:

Reciprocity wrote:

can you make a case where lowering taxes increased economic freedom and growth?  You continually whine about the bush tax cuts and how important they are, and yet, they didn't do anything for the economy of the last 10 years.

I really don't know how many times it needs to be explained... but presidents have fuck all to do with the economy.

I'm not saying they do, either.  I'm just questioning harmor's logic.  He's insisting that these "bush" tax cuts are vital to the economy, while there's no proof beyond drudge report editorials.

Actually there is; Every time tax rates are cut, tax revenues go up. Weird, I know.
But it is fact.

Harmor wrote:

When you tax something you encourage less of it.  If we could have taxed ourselves into prosperity we would had done it by now.

and once again I ask; why didn't this reality apply during the bush years?

ATG wrote:

umm Bush cut taxes. He sucked in every other way, but taxes were cut. Look it up.
for reals.

and our economy was stagnant.

JohnG@lt wrote:

Reciprocity wrote:

ATG wrote:

umm Bush cut taxes. He sucked in every other way, but taxes were cut. Look it up.
for reals.

and our economy was stagnant.

Well, we had the recession from the dot com boom and bust which he inherited. Then there were some pretty fantastic years leading up to the housing crash. But, end to end, as a decade the 00s were flat. I certainly wouldn't blame Bush for that though.

I don't either, but I'm not the one touting the "bush" tax cuts.

Reciprocity wrote:

JohnG@lt wrote:

Reciprocity wrote:

and our economy was stagnant.

Well, we had the recession from the dot com boom and bust which he inherited. Then there were some pretty fantastic years leading up to the housing crash. But, end to end, as a decade the 00s were flat. I certainly wouldn't blame Bush for that though.

I don't either, but I'm not the one touting the "bush" tax cuts.

I don't know why you bother arguing with him, you might as well turn your TV to Fox News and yell at it instead. He can parrot what other people say, but he doesn't actually have any understanding of what he is parroting. It's very similar to the way a small child mimics its parents.

Cybargs wrote:

DBBrinson1 wrote:

Reciprocity wrote:

and our economy was stagnant.

therefore we must tax more.

And drive away foreign investments and good American workers, creating a brain drain like they have in Europe? No thanks.

sarcasm

Looks like more Democrats call for Keeping Bush Tax Cuts.

"As a general rule, you don't want to be cutting spending or raising taxes in the midst of a downturn," Mr. Conrad said.


Raising taxes in the midst of a downturn is not a good idea and would further put stress on our economy.

I think they realize that small and medium businesses cannot much more abuse.

With Recovery Slowing, the Jobs Outlook Dims

New York Times wrote:

There is no more disputing it: the economic recovery in the United States has indeed slowed.

The nation’s economy has been growing for a year, with few new jobs to show for it. Now, with the government reporting a growth rate of just 2.4 percent in the second quarter and federal stimulus measures fading, the jobs outlook appears even more discouraging.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/31/busin … r=2&hp

--

I've been hearing that they may pass another $74 billion stimulus bill.  /boggle

Pray China keeps buying your debts, or you can kiss your 'economy' goodbye.

When they talk about double dip, imo they should qualify that statement with talking about a double dip in the stock market because the real economy is still going down, it has never even blipped or bumped upwards like the stock market. Here's a good employment graph, we are below historic recessions and the economy still hasn't bottomed yet. Even if you take unemployment to be a lagging indicator, it still hasn't turned and IMO employment will have to lead this recovery.



What has trended upwards slightly is the stock market because all the excess liquidity in the market is trying to find a spot to make money from money but no one is putting that money to work in the real economy. The market is so disconnected from the real economy that its value as an indicator of the health of the economy has to be questioned. The market has lost its real purpose which was to be a way for businesses to raise capital to put to work in their businesses.


Here's the real problem

wOW what a rebound
the financial sector is the real problem. These are the guys who have had the recovery and its these guys that are in mind when the govt bails out the banks and offers a fed rate of zero. When it comes to talk of double dip its about these guys not regular people. The rest of us are just dog shit on their shoe, just sheep to be sheered.

And in this graph you can see a steady increase in the financial industry as a percentage of GDP although they don't add anything to the economy as far as real product. they are parasites and make money from money.

and here is another interesting trend line. notice how the growth in the economy has been debt based and that includes the financial system. The growth in the financial system debt really took off after Reagan and shows that they have been feeding off of credit, hence the necessity of the zero fed funds rate, the special secret window etc etc.. The debt of the financial system looks like it went exponential since Clinton.

The present zero fed rate is aimed at returning these guys  to profitability but any upward shift in the interest rate should send these guys falling back down to earth.


IMO the whole double dip talk is spin on how to save the financial industry, in fact the whole recovery effort has been about saving these guys and the expense of the real economy. Its why we are spending money to prop up values and inhibit deflation. Government policy has been set to cater to these guys and the media has been reporting as if a recovery for them is a recovery for all of us... we clearly that's a load of BS. They can call this a beauty mark but we all know its a wart and it has to come off.

JohnG@lt wrote:

Diesel_dyk wrote:

And in this graph you can see a steady increase in the financial industry as a percentage of GDP although they don't add anything to the economy as far as real product. they are parasites and make money from money.

They provide a service, which is just as real in terms of wealth creation as building a car or writing a play.

IMO they're a parasite. Their services may be necessary to a certain extent, but they are taking too much out of the economy.
Anyway, there is something seriously wrong with that industry, any other service would suffer in an ailing economy. If the economy is bad, then people cut back, and people in the service industry get hurt, but by all indication these guys are rebounding like a rubber super ball. its ridiculous.

The problem is that these guys are talked about as if they were "the economy" and policy is being set as if that were true. IMO if the economy does not recover (and its not going to for another 4 years) and the gravy train of tax money going to these guys dries up, or the fed rate is forced up, then we will see this financial bubble pop and then they can all join us in the real world.

long story short, the talk of double dip is all spin about them. The rest of us are still in the decline.

JohnG@lt wrote:

Diesel_dyk wrote:

JohnG@lt wrote:

They provide a service, which is just as real in terms of wealth creation as building a car or writing a play.

IMO they're a parasite. Their services may be necessary to a certain extent, but they are taking too much out of the economy.
Anyway, there is something seriously wrong with that industry, any other service would suffer in an ailing economy. If the economy is bad, then people cut back, and people in the service industry get hurt, but by all indication these guys are rebounding like a rubber super ball. its ridiculous.

The problem is that these guys are talked about as if they were "the economy" and policy is being set as if that were true. IMO if the economy does not recover (and its not going to for another 4 years) and the gravy train of tax money going to these guys dries up, or the fed rate is forced up, then we will see this financial bubble pop and then they can all join us in the real world.

long story short, the talk of double dip is all spin about them. The rest of us are still in the decline.

Too much out of the economy? They make too much money? Who the fuck are you to decide something as arbitrary as that? What would you like the jobs to be replaced by? Factory union jobs? Jesus Fucking Christ, stop watching MSNBC, it's turned you into a moron.

Nope...  he's spot on, actually.  Most of what Wall Street does is manipulate money in arbitrary ways.  It's only perceived as a service because of how convoluted and manipulative banking can be.  Ever since the advent of fiat money, the financial sector has mostly been a very complicated game of smoke and mirrors.