Diesel_dyk
Object in mirror will feel larger than it appears
+178|5964|Truthistan
OK so sometimes I like to be an alarmist, or at least parody alaramists for fun. But this one has me thinking whether the BP oil leak might be leading to another mega-disaster.


Here is what I read BP Disaster Could kill Millions


And this link has video of oil seeping from cracks in the sea floor, which means at the very least that the oil pipe is damaged below the surface of the sea floor and that means that a relief well is the only thing that can fully plug the well. At worst it means that the well will never be fully plugged because BP has managed to crack the geological formation above the oil reserve. and in the really apocalyptic worst case scenario, the predictions in the above website mig ht have some validity if the methane pool under under the oil reserve has an avenue to escape or is cracking the seafloor. and of course BP is saying that there are no leaks from cracks on the sea floor. Site for Video and explanations




Anyway, what's your opinion. Are we really screwed? is this really dangerous? I have a feeling that this will be a topic in the news cycle in the next few days. IMO if they can only stop the pipe from leaking and can't stop the seepage from teh sea floor, then that in itself is a mega-disaster and the ultimate engineering fail.
ATG
Banned
+5,233|6499|Global Command
Well, it could be really bad.

But we also live in the age of paranoia and manipulation by fear.
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|6644|Canberra, AUS
I've heard of seafloor methane clathrate/hydrate sublimation, and methane leaks. Suffice to say if it were to happen it would be really really bad. A fair few people think it's happened before, with singularly bad results.

Last edited by Spark (2010-06-21 19:59:41)

The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5328|London, England

Spark wrote:

I've heard of seafloor methane clathrate/hydrate sublimation, and methane leaks. Suffice to say if it were to happen it would be really really bad. A fair few people think it's happened before, with singularly bad results.
There are companies trying to figure out how to extract the frozen methane that is all over the Gulf of Mexico's seabed. There's apparently enough methane there to provide energy for many generations.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|6644|Canberra, AUS

JohnG@lt wrote:

Spark wrote:

I've heard of seafloor methane clathrate/hydrate sublimation, and methane leaks. Suffice to say if it were to happen it would be really really bad. A fair few people think it's happened before, with singularly bad results.
There are companies trying to figure out how to extract the frozen methane that is all over the Gulf of Mexico's seabed. There's apparently enough methane there to provide energy for many generations.
Globally, in both seafloor and land-based deposits, there are enough methane clathrate/hydrate deposits to give us enough energy for basically as long as we damn well need until fusion gets up.

However, I think there are two big problems - the best land-based deposits AFAIK are in central Siberia, not precisely the most accessible place in the world. And recovering the stuff from the seafloor poses the risk of triggering the exact above occurring, which would be bad. Think the most ludicrous, alarmist global warming scenario you've heard of and multiply it by ten.

Last edited by Spark (2010-06-21 20:10:39)

The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
Macbeth
Banned
+2,444|5555

Spark wrote:

- the best land-based deposits AFAIK are in central Siberia, not precisely the most accessible place in the world.
The biggest problem is logistics? Seriously?
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5328|London, England

Macbeth wrote:

Spark wrote:

- the best land-based deposits AFAIK are in central Siberia, not precisely the most accessible place in the world.
The biggest problem is logistics? Seriously?
Yes.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|6644|Canberra, AUS

JohnG@lt wrote:

Macbeth wrote:

Spark wrote:

- the best land-based deposits AFAIK are in central Siberia, not precisely the most accessible place in the world.
The biggest problem is logistics? Seriously?
Yes.
There are also some technical issues surrounding actually getting the methane out, but basically the big one is logistics.
The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5328|London, England

Spark wrote:

JohnG@lt wrote:

Macbeth wrote:


The biggest problem is logistics? Seriously?
Yes.
There are also some technical issues surrounding actually getting the methane out, but basically the big one is logistics.
That, and there is so much of it that it wouldn't really be profitable to extract and ship it.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6741|PNW

"I just want my life back."
TheDonkey
Eat my bearrrrrrrrrrr, Tonighttt
+163|5687|Vancouver, BC, Canada
This is the beginnings of 2012, tbh.

The relief well will be completed and we'll think everything is fine and dandy, then a year and a half from now, those methane supplies will get released, causing extensive global warming which will begin an unstoppable natural process that will fry us all.

/Uneducated-talking-out-of-my-ass-opinion. (Which is actually based on some fact, some guy came to our school and talked about how if we cause the earth to warm an x number of degrees, it will cause a chain reaction that just keeps the warming going that we won't be able to stop. Predictions say this will happen within 30 years or something)
Mitch
16 more years
+877|6495|South Florida

TheDonkey wrote:

This is the beginnings of 2012, tbh.

The relief well will be completed and we'll think everything is fine and dandy, then a year and a half from now, those methane supplies will get released, causing extensive global warming which will begin an unstoppable natural process that will fry us all.

/Uneducated-talking-out-of-my-ass-opinion. (Which is actually based on some fact, some guy came to our school and talked about how if we cause the earth to warm an x number of degrees, it will cause a chain reaction that just keeps the warming going that we won't be able to stop. Predictions say this will happen within 30 years or something)
finally, something new to worry about.

my happyness level was hovering around neutral ever since the large hadron collider went poof
15 more years! 15 more years!
TheDonkey
Eat my bearrrrrrrrrrr, Tonighttt
+163|5687|Vancouver, BC, Canada

Mitch wrote:

TheDonkey wrote:

This is the beginnings of 2012, tbh.

The relief well will be completed and we'll think everything is fine and dandy, then a year and a half from now, those methane supplies will get released, causing extensive global warming which will begin an unstoppable natural process that will fry us all.

/Uneducated-talking-out-of-my-ass-opinion. (Which is actually based on some fact, some guy came to our school and talked about how if we cause the earth to warm an x number of degrees, it will cause a chain reaction that just keeps the warming going that we won't be able to stop. Predictions say this will happen within 30 years or something)
finally, something new to worry about.

my happyness level was hovering around neutral ever since the large hadron collider went poof
https://i134.photobucket.com/albums/q86/champchris/Misc/not_sure_if_srs.jpg
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|6644|Canberra, AUS

TheDonkey wrote:

This is the beginnings of 2012, tbh.

The relief well will be completed and we'll think everything is fine and dandy, then a year and a half from now, those methane supplies will get released, causing extensive global warming which will begin an unstoppable natural process that will fry us all.

/Uneducated-talking-out-of-my-ass-opinion. (Which is actually based on some fact, some guy came to our school and talked about how if we cause the earth to warm an x number of degrees, it will cause a chain reaction that just keeps the warming going that we won't be able to stop. Predictions say this will happen within 30 years or something)
Eh. Well. Big clathrate sublimination event, say a six-eight degree rise?

Well, good luck. Most obvious side effect I can think of is that the oceans will almost certainly be dead, due to anoxia.
The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
Mekstizzle
WALKER
+3,611|6591|London, England
can we start using nukes now, they're right there just sitting, waiting
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|6644|Canberra, AUS

Mekstizzle wrote:

can we start using nukes now, they're right there just sitting, waiting
...

That would make any potential risk infinitely greater...
The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5328|London, England
Yay! Logic trumps emotion for once!

https://img.ffffound.com/static-data/assets/6/1b1318ebbb1ad7f7a160635118b37ba9eea69eae_m.gif

In a victory for drilling proponents, a federal judge struck down President Obama's six-month moratorium on deepwater oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, saying the administration rashly concluded that because one rig failed, the others are in immediate danger, too.

The White House promised an immediate appeal. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said the president believes strongly that drilling at such depths does not make sense and puts the safety of workers "at a danger that the president does not believe we can afford."

The Interior Department had halted approval of any new permits for deepwater drilling and suspended drilling of 33 exploratory wells in the Gulf.

Several companies that ferry people and supplies and provide other services to offshore drilling rigs asked U.S. District Judge Martin Feldman in New Orleans to overturn the moratorium.

They argued it was arbitrarily imposed after the April 20 explosion on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig that killed 11 workers and blew out the well 5,000 feet underwater. It has spewed anywhere from 67 million to 127 million gallons of oil into the Gulf.

Feldman sided with the companies, saying in his ruling the Interior Department assumed that because one rig failed, all companies and rigs doing deepwater drilling pose an imminent danger.

"The Deepwater Horizon oil spill is an unprecedented, sad, ugly and inhuman disaster," he wrote. "What seems clear is that the federal government has been pressed by what happened on the Deepwater Horizon into an otherwise sweeping confirmation that all Gulf deepwater drilling activities put us all in a universal threat of irreparable harm."

His ruling prohibits federal officials from enforcing the moratorium until a trial is held. He did not set a trial date.

The Interior Department said it needed time to study the risks of deepwater drilling. But the lawsuit filed by Hornbeck Offshore Services of Covington, La., claimed there was no proof the other operations posed a threat.

Company CEO Todd Hornbeck said after the ruling that he is looking forward to getting back to work.

"It's the right thing for not only the industry but the country," he said.

Earlier in the day, executives at a major oil conference in London warned that the moratorium would cripple world energy supplies. Steven Newman, president and CEO of Transocean Ltd., owner of the rig that exploded, called it an unnecessary overreaction. BP PLC was leasing the rig.

"There are things the administration could implement today that would allow the industry to go back to work tomorrow without an arbitrary six-month time limit," Newman told reporters on the sidelines of the conference.

The moratorium was declared May 6 and originally was to last only through the month. Obama announced May 27 that he was extending it for six months.

In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal and corporate leaders said that would force drilling rigs to leave the Gulf of Mexico for lucrative business in foreign waters.

They said the loss of business would cost the area thousands of lucrative jobs, most paying more than $50,000 a year. The state's other major economic sector, tourism, is a largely low-wage industry.

Tim Kerner, the mayor of Lafitte, La., cheered Feldman's ruling.

"I love it. I think it's great for the jobs here and the people who depend on them," said Kerner, whose constituents make their living primarily from commercial fishing or oil.

But in its response to the lawsuit, the Interior Department said the moratorium is needed as attempts to stop the leak and clean the Gulf continue and new safety standards are developed.

"A second deepwater blowout could overwhelm the efforts to respond to the current disaster," the Interior Department said.

The government also challenged contentions the moratorium would cause long-term economic harm. Although 33 deepwater drilling sites were affected, there are still 3,600 oil and natural gas production platforms in the Gulf.

Catherine Wannamaker, a lawyer for environmental groups that intervened in the case and supported the moratorium, called the ruling "a step in the wrong direction."

"We think it overlooks the ongoing harm in the Gulf, the devastation it has had on people's lives," she said. "The harm at issue with the Deepwater Horizon spill is bigger than just the Louisiana economy. It affects all of the Gulf."

Sen. David Vitter, R-La., praised the ruling, saying the judge got at least two things right.

"First of all that the president's powers are not unlimited, that there needs to be a basis in law for whatever he does," Vitter told Fox News, "and secondly that this is a huge deal and would cost -- if the moratorium continues -- well over 100,000 jobs in the Gulf. So it is a big, big deals."

Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, said the ruling showed the moratorium was "overreaching."

"It should serve as a shot across the bow to the administration and Congress that American workers must continue to develop America's energy resources within our borders," Begich said in a written statement.

"As much as a tragedy as BP's Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster is, we can't let emotion overrule sound energy policy," he added. "Our country's energy policy must include increased domestic oil and gas development as we transition to cleaner energy sources."

Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., applauded the ruling, saying it confirmed his belief that the president didn't have the authority to "impose this reckless ban in the first place."

"For more than a month, Louisiana's economy has been jeopardized by this drilling ban being pushed by federal bureaucrats who have exploited our disaster to pursue their own political agenda, and today's ruling confirms the ban was a knee-jerk reaction that ignored facts and science," he said.

"It is long past time for the president and Secretary Salazar to finally come to the table and work with those of us who have presented alternatives that will immediately increase safety and mitigate environmental damage without shutting down an entire industry."
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/06 … adlines%29

My brother works for Hornbeck

Last edited by JohnG@lt (2010-06-22 14:56:14)

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,285|6686
Saddam did worst.
https://cache.www.gametracker.com/server_info/203.46.105.23:21300/b_350_20_692108_381007_FFFFFF_000000.png
SEREMAKER
BABYMAKIN EXPERT √
+2,187|6538|Mountains of NC

the gulf is the New New Jersey
https://static.bf2s.com/files/user/17445/carhartt.jpg
loubot
O' HAL naw!
+470|6548|Columbus, OH
action speaks louder than words.


As the world watches from the sidelines and wonder when the U.S. is going to call them in to help.

God I hope Palin doesn't run for the presidency.
mcgid1
Meh...
+129|6686|Austin, TX/San Antonio, TX
I love this, the court says you can't have a moratorium and the administration tells the court to f' off and issues another one. The only difference seems to be that they are adding the information they presented to the court when the first one was struck down. Link

Attn Obama and co.:  It's called checks and balances.  You aren't Emperor of the United States.  If the court system tells you that you can't do something, you can't do it.  Do not try to circumvent the law or the Constitution because they don't suit your purposes or agenda.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5328|London, England

mcgid1 wrote:

I love this, the court says you can't have a moratorium and the administration tells the court to f' off and issues another one. The only difference seems to be that they are adding the information they presented to the court when the first one was struck down. Link

Attn Obama and co.:  It's called checks and balances.  You aren't Emperor of the United States.  If the court system tells you that you can't do something, you can't do it.  Do not try to circumvent the law or the Constitution because they don't suit your purposes or agenda.
I wonder if he is going to blame BP when Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi all come screaming to DC for a bailout for their respective governments since he just effectively killed their tax revenue for the rest of the year. Since they are red states, I bet he tells them to bugger off.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
mikkel
Member
+383|6571

JohnG@lt wrote:

Article
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/06 … adlines%29

My brother works for Hornbeck
Curiously, the same judge holds stock in drilling companies.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5328|London, England

mikkel wrote:

JohnG@lt wrote:

Article
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/06 … adlines%29

My brother works for Hornbeck
Curiously, the same judge holds stock in drilling companies.
$15k, out of what I am sure is a multi-million dollar portfolio. Who cares? That's a drop in the bucket.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
mcgid1
Meh...
+129|6686|Austin, TX/San Antonio, TX

JohnG@lt wrote:

mcgid1 wrote:

I love this, the court says you can't have a moratorium and the administration tells the court to f' off and issues another one. The only difference seems to be that they are adding the information they presented to the court when the first one was struck down. Link

Attn Obama and co.:  It's called checks and balances.  You aren't Emperor of the United States.  If the court system tells you that you can't do something, you can't do it.  Do not try to circumvent the law or the Constitution because they don't suit your purposes or agenda.
I wonder if he is going to blame BP when Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi all come screaming to DC for a bailout for their respective governments since he just effectively killed their tax revenue for the rest of the year. Since they are red states, I bet he tells them to bugger off.
Probably.  Then he'll also tell us (I'm Texan) that it's all Bush's fault as well and if we'd just join him in his wonderful pipe dream...err, I mean vison...then we'd get the money we need and everything would be fine.

Fortunately for Texas at least, oil only represents about 5% of tax revenues, and offshore drilling is a fraction of that.

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