thread needs more activity. I'll post some write-ups I wrote on a betting forum I frequent.
Liverpool - Everton
One of the Premier Leagues best derbies this, and if I'm honest, I don't like betting on these types of games. Both teams have had a good run of form lately, especially in the defensive part of the game. Let's start with Liverpool. 8 of their last ten games have ended under 2.5 goals, and they've held a clean sheet in their last three games. They haven't scored a lot either, 11 goals in those aforementioned 10 league matches. Everton themselves have played a lot of low-scoring games recently. 7 of their last ten games have gone under, and those three overs are 2-2 to Tottenham, 3-3 to Chelsea and 2-2 to Arsenal. They haven't lost in the league since November to, you guessed it, Liverpool. Head to head, their last 6 meetings have gone under.
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.8 - 7pts bet365
Bolton - Fulham
Well, first thing that pops into mind when I see this game is Fulham's away record this season. It is absolutely terrible. They have a single away win this season, and that was away to woeful Portsmouth on opening day. 1-0. They've had 4 draws and 7 losses. On top of that, they have a dreadful injury list, missing key players such as Andrew Johnson and Clint Dempsey. Gera, Konchesky and Pantsil will also be missing, and Simon Davies is doubtful. Before their win at home to Pompey in the mid-week (1-0), they had 4 consecutive losses. Bolton's form however, isn't impressive, and this is why I won't back the clean home win; they have only 2 wins in their last 10 league matches, and they have one of the worst home records in the league. I can see Bolton winning, and though they can be had for 2.25, I'd like to have some draw cover. I predict a rough, boring game, and I can see this ending 1-0 or 0-0
Bolton (-0.25) @ 1.87 - 5pts bet365
Under 2 @ 2.44 - 3pts bet365
Burnley - West Ham
This is the toughest one to predict imo. And the draw is tempting - oh so tempting. Everton have drawn their last three league games, to Aston Villa, Pompey and Blackburn (0-0, 1-1 and 0-0). Before Burnley's game to Chelsea last week-end, they had four consecutive draws at home, to Aston Villa, Fulham, Arsenal and Bolton. All 1-1. West Ham only have a single win away. While Burnley's home form has been good, they've been terrible under Mr. Law. I expect he'll be happy with the point here. After the Chelsea game I said I'd back Burnley because of their performance. Well, I haven't really changed my mind, but I find no value in the bets with draw cover.
So, I'm going for the draw here.
Draw @ 3.4 - 3pts skybet
Correct Score: 1-1 @ 7.0 - 2pts skybet