BF2S Forums OPEC fears oil Tsunami

Pochsy wrote:

JohnG@lt wrote:

Pochsy wrote:

Surely. But I think you need to note that the investors generally get their information from the companies themselves, although you do correctly point to the importance of world events (which are often reinforced by the companies as being detrimental, who I see as the locus of price control). My approach is less nuanced, but we're saying the same thing. You starting point is investors who then affect prices through companies, mine is the companies who inform investors who in turn do the same.

Yes, but you're turning it into some conspiracy theory bs when it isn't. How many barrels of oil extracted, how many barrels refined, this is all information that is available to anyone. The oil companies are not conspiring to drive prices up, it's demand in China, India and other places that is driving up demand and therefor prices.

Oh, I don't hold it as a hidden practice; it's well noted. I also find it to be a rather prudent endeavor and have no real ill feelings surrounding the practice.

Sure, everybody has access to the sum of oil refined, but the sales and demand are a little trickier.

Yes, demand in part drives up cost: well done. Creating a shortage in a period of high demand drives it up further still.

You guys are both missing it. The problem is not the supply of real oil, the problem is the supply of paper contracts in the futures market.

The futures market is the problem and the reasons excuses for high oil are an endless vat of BS. You have the price of oil go up because the dollar is down. The dollar goes up so oil decouples and now its demand in China. China squawks and so now its the cold winter to blame or because some Georgian beat up a Russian at a bar. BS, BS and more BS. In the very near future it will be the carbon market. point is that the futures market has little to nothing to do with the supply of real oil or the demand real oil... the futures market is speculative and the power of the speculators to create an oil bubble is related to leverage or buying on the margin.

You want to oil to return to so sort of normal mareket rhythm??? that's easy just set the trading rules so that you need 50% margin if the purchaser of the paper oil contract is not an end user of oil. If you're an end user such as an oil refinery or BP etc you get a 5% margin. its not my idea, it came from an old lady in her 70s or 80s on CNBC who was some woman pioneer trader and that was her answer for the ridiculous oil bubble created by these bastards in 2008.  You see the problem is that people get into these markets on low margin rates and hold onto these contracts and drive the prices up and the only reason why oil prices don't collapse is because oil is inelastic meaning we will pay practically anything to get it so we can get to work.

These scams are a lot like the electric deregulation scams run by ENRON and which a lot of states foolishly and probably corruptly permitted. IMO its no different than congress allowing this paper futures market bubble to continue. Congress really needs a change in the margin rules to decrease the pressure on oil prices that excess leverage is creating.


The two new big bubbles are
1. oil and gasoline ... because we really have no choice but to pay it and
2. energy.. via smart meters and carbon trading. A local community near me had smart meters put in as a project and the amounts they are now paying for electrcity jumped 50 to 75%... what a scam

when the govt gets these set up we are all fucked..... and the supply of real energy/oil has nothing to do with it.

Diesel_dyk wrote:

You guys are both missing it. The problem is not the supply of real oil, the problem is the supply of paper contracts in the futures market.

The futures market is the problem and the reasons excuses for high oil are an endless vat of BS. You have the price of oil go up because the dollar is down. The dollar goes up so oil decouples and now its demand in China. China squawks and so now its the cold winter to blame or because some Georgian beat up a Russian at a bar. BS, BS and more BS. In the very near future it will be the carbon market. point is that the futures market has little to nothing to do with the supply of real oil or the demand real oil... the futures market is speculative and the power of the speculators to create an oil bubble is related to leverage or buying on the margin.

You want to oil to return to so sort of normal mareket rhythm??? that's easy just set the trading rules so that you need 50% margin if the purchaser of the paper oil contract is not an end user of oil. If you're an end user such as an oil refinery or BP etc you get a 5% margin. its not my idea, it came from an old lady in her 70s or 80s on CNBC who was some woman pioneer trader and that was her answer for the ridiculous oil bubble created by these bastards in 2008.  You see the problem is that people get into these markets on low margin rates and hold onto these contracts and drive the prices up and the only reason why oil prices don't collapse is because oil is inelastic meaning we will pay practically anything to get it so we can get to work.

These scams are a lot like the electric deregulation scams run by ENRON and which a lot of states foolishly and probably corruptly permitted. IMO its no different than congress allowing this paper futures market bubble to continue. Congress really needs a change in the margin rules to decrease the pressure on oil prices that excess leverage is creating.


The two new big bubbles are
1. oil and gasoline ... because we really have no choice but to pay it and
2. energy.. via smart meters and carbon trading. A local community near me had smart meters put in as a project and the amounts they are now paying for electrcity jumped 50 to 75%... what a scam

when the govt gets these set up we are all fucked..... and the supply of real energy/oil has nothing to do with it.

You know...  the problems behind oil futures sound a bit like high frequency trading -- another practice that endangers market stability.

Dilbert_X wrote:

Sorry, futures trading does not determine the long term baseline price of something,

Not true.  It can actually.  Granted, it requires multiple periods of price spikes.