XstrangerdangerX
conversation is combat
+36|6869|Tasmania
More from me from two years ago.

____________________________________________________________________

I've been rather upset of late with the whole bush/kerry election debates. Which one will save us from the terrorists, which one will make things alright, and so on and so forth.

Is that all the issues facing you at this point in history? We have an election coming up in Australia (my guess is October) where the same issues are being debated.

Along with the war and its handling, we have a plethora of social issues to address; employment, aged care, privatisation, economic relief for farmers, and so on and so forth.

To me, this kind of short term view is an indictment on our political models that our 'leaders' are forced to short change our future wellbeing for their immediate political needs.

I am referring here directly to the refusal of the USA and Australia to ratify the 1996 Kyoto protocol, though you can add any other ecological issue to this that you want to.

Have we gotten lost on the real issues that affect everyone in the world? Do you care about the thousands of children dying each day from lack of access to fresh water? Do you care if your nuclear power plant that heats your lounge room and powers your guitar is leaking into the ocean and affecting the seaweed growth off the Gold Coast in Australia? Are we in danger of maxing out our atmosphere's ability to absorb harmful emissions?

Shouldn't this be the point? Why are these issues not mandated?

Now I'm going to post a 3000+ word unfinished work that I posted at my home forum (Guitar Tabs Universe) which uses arguments and figures from 'Peter Singers - One world, the ethics of globalisation' and statistics that I obtained via the Tasmanian Greens Party (who got theirs from Greenpeace). Ignore my posts after this one if you like.. they are monstrous in size and I post them only for two small reasons; firstly, they offer many interesting facts and arguments about global carbon emissions and the irresponsible wilfullness of successive American administrations in dealing with this; and two, I spent a total of ten hours in reading, thinking and writing it so I'm getting what mileage I can.

Methinks this thread will fail, and again, I'll be all alone in the caring and the seeing of the point.
XstrangerdangerX
conversation is combat
+36|6869|Tasmania
So your entire basis when you go to the polls is the war in Iraq? We have a couple of thousand dead from the war and from the WTC bombing... this is your issue?

They really threaten your freedom that much? You really think that they can destabilise your entire nation with their what... super-bazookas and mondo nuclear weapons?

No matter what damage Al-Qaeda can affect on the western world (the entire coalition of the willing is being threatened now, particularly after the Phillipines understandably gave in) there are other issues I personally would be focussing on if I were an American citizen.

Do you remember the Montreal Protocol back in 1985? It was about the developed countries completely phasing out CFC emissions by 1999, and developing countries were given a ten year grace and were then
to move towards the same goal?

CFC's were just the curtain raiser. The main event is climate change (global warming). There is a working group called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is an international scientific body that was intended to create the final, authoritative view of climate change and its causes.

It eventually released the Third Assessment Report in 2001.This is the combined work of 122 lead autors and 515 contributing authors, and the research on which it was based was reviewed by 337 experts, so I think wee can call this definitive.

OUur planet shows clear signs of warming over the past century. Each decade since the 80's has been the hottest decade recorded. Sea levels have risen by 10 and 20 centimeters over the last century. Since the 1960's snow and ice cover has decreased by about 10%, and mountain glaciers are retreating everywhere except near the poles. In the past 30 years the El Nino effect in the southern hemisphere has bvecome more intense, localised and regular causing massive variance in rainfall leading to sever draught and economic haerdship (in particular for our Australian farmers).

Parallelling these changes is a rise in concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide produced by human activities suchs as burning fossil fuels, the clearing of vegetation and (in the case of methane) cattle and rice production. Not for the last 420,000 years has there been so much carbon dioxide and methane in our atmosphere.

The report then goes on to state just how the difference can be attributed to humans and not to natural variations.

The consequences of these changes going on unchecked, if we continue to emit increasing amounts of these greenhouse gases is that between 1990 and 2100 average global temperatures will rise by at least 1.4 degreees to as much as 5.8 degrees celsius. Now, a difference in the weather tomorrow between 20 degrees and 22 degrees may not seem like much - but even a 1 degree rise in global average temperature is more than our earth has experienced in the last 10,000 years. Also, we need to fear the tipping weight or 'phase transition'. Water is ice at 0 degrees, water at 0.1 to 99.9 degrees and then steam from 100 degrees on. None of these states fluidly shift into the other, the change is swift and dramatic. It may in fact already be too late. It's like a game of jengah, everything's peachy up until the last block, then the whole structure shatters.

Now think of our polar caps as frigid plugs that keep the internal heat of our earth where it should be; internal. If the polar caps melt due to rising temperatures, then a little more heat can escape, that little bit of heat melts some more of the polar cap until even more heat can escape.

So why the environmental lesson?

After releasing the Third Assessment Report, the IPCC adcised that a global treaty was needed to deal with the issues it raised. The United Nations Generral Assembly decided to proceed with such, so the UN Nations Framework Convention was agreed to in 1992, and opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. This 'framework convention' was greed to by 181 governments. As it suggest, it was not a mandatory act but a framework designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and that the parties to the convention should do this 'on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities'. Developed nations were to take the lead in combating climate change and they all committed themselves to 1990 emission levels by the year 2000. Luckily the agreement wasn't binding because for the US and several other countries, they didn't even come close. By 2000, US emissions were 14% higher than they were in 1990. Nor did they improve after that because the rise in 1990-2000 was 3.1 percent, the biggest one year rise since the mid 1990's.

One other thing the framework implimented was a procedure for the 'conference of the parties' which was designed to assess progress. After 1995. this conference decided more binding targets were required. So we come to the point, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. This sets targets for 39 developed nations to limit or reduce their greenhouse emission by 2012. Most developed nations were targeted to 5% below their 1990 levels, though through various agreements and edal, countries like USA were pegged to 7% below, whereas Australia was allowed to go over it's 1990 levels. These targets were not arrived at in any way other than as a purpose of getting agreement to the protocol, so the division of targets was not exactly equitable. Under the Kyoto Protocol, emissions trading schemes were set in place, by which one country can buy emission credits (effectively buying the rights to pollute) from another country that can reach its targets with some left over.

In further meetings in July and November 2001, 178 nations reached an historic atgreement that made it possible to put the Kyoto Protocol into effect.

The United States however, watched from the sidelines, no longer being a party to the agreement. Not long after, my primeminister, little Johnny Howard, followed suit and refused to ratify the agreement, despite Australia having been given handsomely reduced emissions targets, more so than any other nation.

Why on Earth would the USA and Australia refuse to sign such an important agreement?

*posting this now and then finishing the argument. This has become ridiculously long. If you like it though, I got some frightening stats on how America refuses to ratify the International Criminal Court unless it's own citizens and agents are free from prosecution.
And you thought the war was the issue?*




*This second part of the argument and the reasoning comes from 'Peter Singers - One World, the ethics of globalisation'. The above figures came from this source also. The timeline of the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols came from the greenpeace website. Any direct quotes or tracts will be prefaced by asterisks.*

Part of the reason that the US didn't ratify the protocol was the (false) economic assumption that it would cost too much money and that they would bear the brunt of cost and affect to GDP of all nations, developed or otherwise. It was reported and seen as being more costly to cut carbon-dioxide emissions radically than it was to pay the costs of adaption to the increased temperatures.

***This is a valid point. Could the money that the world proposed to put into reducing emissions be better spent on increasing assistance to the world's poorest people? To help them devlop economically and so cope better with climate change? But how likely is it that the developed nations will spend their money in such a fashion? Their past record is not encouraging. ***

Lomborg's book The Skeptical Environmentalist states that if the developed countries of Australia and the US do not tak epart in the Kyoto protocol, then it is true that enacting the protocol will lead to a net loss of US$150 billion. And will merely delay global temperature increse by just a few years. In the same book Lomborg states that
QUOTE
the total cost of managing global warming ad infinitum would be the same as deferring the (economic) growth curve by less than a year. In other words we would have to wait until 2051 to enjoy the prosperity we would have had in 2050. And by that time, the average citizen of the world will have become twice as wealthy as she is now

If the US and Australia actually took part, and were serious about reducing emissions and also actively partici[pated in emissions trading then the Kyoto pact would bring a net benefit of US$61 billion. Assuming Lomborg's figures are sound, because it is very hard to price the hundreds of millions of lives that will be displaced by rising sea level (an estimated 70 million in Bangladesh alone) and the increase of tropical diseases, as mosquitos and such find their reach lengthened and unprepared immune systems are taken over).

In the third televised debate of the 2000 Presidentialelection, when candidates were asked what they would do about global warming, George Dubbya answered..

Quote:
I'll tell you one thing I'm not going to do is I'm not going to let the US carry the burden for clearing up the world's air, like the Kyoto treaty would have done. China and India are exempt from that treaty, I think we need to be more even-handed.


Now, imagine we live in a village where everyone puts their wastes down a giant communal sink. No one really knows what happens to the waste when you put it in there, but since they disappear and no-one gets hurt, we don't worry about it. Some people have a lot, or larger families and so have a lot of waste, some produce very little waste. But the capacity of this sink is so unquestionably vast that we don't worry about it at all. As long as it continues to accept the waste, it is reasonable to believe that, in putting waste down the sink, we are leaving enough waste space for everyone else.

***Now imagine that the conditions change, so that the sink's capacity to carry away our wastes is used up to the full, and there is already some unpleasant seepage that seems to gbe the result of the sink being used too much. When the weather is warm, it smells. A nearby waterhole where our children swim now has algae blooms that make it unusable. Several respected figures in the village warn that unless usage of the sink is cut down, all the village water supplies will be polluted. At this point, if we continue to throw wastes down the sink, we are not leaving 'enough and as good' for others (this comes from Lockes justification for owning propoerty in his treatises on two governments), and hence our right to unchecked disposal becomes questionable.***

The atmosphere is broken, and the developed nations broke it.

I have a ****load more to write but I wish for someone to egg me on at the moment, this is quite tiring. So, my liberal friends, should I continue? I certainly haven't even come close to making my point yet. I still need to draw the picture of why exactly the US won't sign the Kyoto protocols (Australia won't because our foreign and economic politicy is basxed around being friends with the big guys so we don't have to deal with any of these asians that surround us) because they see the emissions trading scheme as unfair and unequitable, and stand on their national sovereignty at the cost of every single person on the planet. Also more cold hard facts on pollution of our planet.
XstrangerdangerX
conversation is combat
+36|6869|Tasmania
Right, installment number three. And Ericman, think over the global sink analogy again, there is only so much that our atmosphere and ecology can absorb in the short time since we became industrialised. So what if 1 billion cows in India release methane, does that mean we shouldn't attempt to reduce our own emissions? Of course it doesn't. What each country emits is going to effect other people around the world, as emissions have scarce respect for sovereign borders. In January 2002, Norway started a push for a 'polluter pays' which was to be a binding international scheme. This was because there was evidence that Britain's Selafield nuclear plant is emitting radioactive wastes that are reaching the Norwegian coastline. Lobsters and other shellfish in the North Sea and the Irish Sea have high levels of radioactive technetium-99.

So, now I'll attempt to elucidate why America decided not to sign the protocols. I'll be looking at the emissions trading scheme first. Again I'll be using the Peter Singer book and possible greenpeace for any further figures. All direct quotes will be denoted by ***-***.

So we have our global sink. Seepage is occuring slowly, waterholes are being poisoned as we continue to dump matter into it, knowin now that it is no longer an infinite resource. Obviously such reckless abandon can no longer be countenanced, and if we look again at George Bush's speech..

I'll tell you one thing I'm not going to do is I'm not going to let the US carry the burden for clearing up the world's air, like the Kyoto treaty would have done. China and India are exempt from that treaty, I think we need to be more even-handed.
he obviously has a point, even though he was saying it to dodge his obligations, the ethics of equal distribution must be taken into account.

We need to find some way to measure the output of countries and allot them a fair share of the atmosphere. How do we justify taking somehting that has, for our entire human history belonged to humanit, and making it into private property so it can be allotted? ***Locke has an argument which will defend the unequal distribution of property even when ther is no longer 'enough and as good' for others. Comparing the situation of American Indian, wheree there is no private ownership of land, and hence the land is not cultivated, with that of England, where some landowners hold vast estates and many laboureres have no land ata ll, Locke claims that 'a king of a large and fruitful territory there (i.e., in America) feeds, lodges, and is clad worse than a day labourer in England'. Therefore, he suggest, even the landless labourer is better off because of the private, though unequal, appropriation of the common asset, and hence should consent to it. The factual basis of Lockes comparison between English labourers and American Indians is evidently dubious, as is its failure to consider other, more equitable ways of ensuring that the land is used productively. But even if the argument worked for the landless English labourer, we cannot defend the private appropriation of the global sink in the same way***. It seems the landless labourer who can no longer share what was once common has no right to complain because he is better off than he would have been if "inegalitarian private property in land... had not been recognised". Now, the same argument if applied to the global sink analogy would say that the worlds poorest people have benefited from the increased productivity that has come from the use of the global sink by the industrialised nations. But this argument doesn't work, because many of the worlds poorest people, whose share of the atmosphere's capacity have been appropriated by the industrialised nations, are not able to partake of this increased productivity in the industrialised nations - they cannot afford to buy their products - and if rising sea levels inundate their farmlands, or cyclones destroy their homes, they will be far worse off than they otherwise would have been.

One advantage of living with someone you know well, is that if hair clots the shower plughole, it's fairly easy to identify who it belongs to. It is then reasonable to have that person clear away their mess. Can we, in the case of the atmosphere, trace back what share of responsibility each country has for its emissions? It isn't as easy as looking at hair colour ***(but) a few years ago researchers measured world carbon emissions from 1950 to 1986 and found that the United States, with about 5 percent of the world's population at the time, was responsible for 30 percent of the cumulative emissions, whereas India, with 17 percent of the world's population, was responsible for less than 2 percent of the emissions.*** It's as if, in a massive commune sharehouse of 20 people, and all using the same shower, one person had shed 30 pecent of the hair blocking the drain, and 3 people had shed virtually no hair at all. One way of deciding how the bill for the plumber gets split up is to allot a percentage based on how much hair you had shed. See where this is all heading now?

There is a counter-claim to the US being the heaviest polluter, per head of population, than any other country. The argument goes that America has planted so many trees in recent decadesm that it has actually soaked up more carbon dioxide than it has emitted. This view is problematic. On eis that the US has only been able to reforest such vast tracts of land because they ripped up the trees there in the first place which released masssive amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. ***So this therefore , depends on the period over which the calculations are made. If the period includes the entire era of the cutting down of forests, then the US comes out much worse than if it starts from the time in which the forest had been cut but no reforestation had taken place.*** The second problem is that forest growth, while desirable (certainly in my home state) is a one hit wonder. Once the forest is mature it no longer sucks up appreciable amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

At present rates of emissions, contributions from the developing nations will not equal the built up contribution of the developed nations until about 2038. If you adjust the figures for population ***in other words, if we ask when the contribution of the developing nations per person will equal the per person contributions of the developed nations to the atmospheric stock of greenhouse gases*** the answer is: not for another century.

So again, in child like terms. The atmosphere is broken, and the developed nations broke it. It is only fair that they bear the majority if the costs of repair.

So this historical outline of fairness seems to put a gross weight of responsibility on the developed nations. In theri defence, it could gbe argued that they weren't aware at the time of the effects of their cumulative greenhouse gases or of the limit of the atmosphere in absorbing our emissions. So it might be fairer to set a standard now and wipe the slate clean for the past. Perhaps winding the clock back to the first report from the IPCC would be better, when at that time we were made aware officialy of the dangers. This seems grossly unfair to the developing nations to reign their activities because of other peoples action, but lets assume they are in a good mood and allow us this, so we can look at another principle that would decide how much each nation would be able to admit. This is the equal share for everyone principle.

Here is where I leave you. Imagine me as Peter Sellers dying halfway through a movie and all of a sudden the credits roll in the wrong place. I have 9000 words due by August the 14th which I really should be attending too. I have readings to a total of 600 pages to do over the next fortnight. The issues that I've been writing about is something of great interest to me, and anyone who remembers my rants about my home state would well know why. I wanted to go on to the main thrust of my argument, that Bush believes'economic growth is the solution, not the problem', and how this is used to mask the looting of our future all to make some more shiny consumer goods. My scanner is broken so you will never see the graph that plots countries according to their per capita metric ton of carbon emissions versus their per capita GDP. One which shows India, Chile, Spain, China and others doing remarkable jobs of making money yet not polluting our atmosphere and then countries like Canada, Norway, Australia and the United States being GDP rich and pollution heavy. The US is second only to Singapore in the scale of its emissions, and leads the world in GDP per capita.

So, why the fuck is it that only Australia and the USA refuse to sign off on Kyoto? Why is it that immediate matters like a few terrorist are the focal point in the race to elect the most powerful white man on Earth? Terrorists will never EVER come close to causing the damage that the ecological disaster we're facing will. I spent so much time in this thread because I become so frustrated by this small-minded politicking view, not just of electors but of debaters in this thread. Am I the only one who cares? Once again, am I the only one who sees that their is even a problem?

So vote Bush/Cheney in '04, after all, why change horseman mid-apocalypse?

Last edited by XstrangerdangerX (2006-04-23 15:07:37)

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