BF2S Forums Predictions

1)  still there

2)  still there

3)  what occupation?

4)  no change

5)  the rich will get richer, poor will get more poor

6)  no idea

7)  no change

8)  still a scam so no change

1) The western occupation of Afghanistan.
Will still be occupied, mainly to allow access to Pakistan. Kabul just about under control, remainder by warlords, Taliban either bribed off or continuing low-level attrition attacks.

2) The western occupation of Iraq.
Essentially ended.

3) The Israeli occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
Expanded and cemented, probably with Israel controlling all of West Bank borders similar to Gaza.

4) Iran's nuclear capability and its relationship with the rest of the world.
Civilian program operating and producing power, military program still scattered and unknown.

5) The global economy.
Back to 'normal', highly dependent on decisions made by China.

6) The economic and political situation in Venezuela.
Chaos, maybe taken over by US backed strongman.

7) The political situation on the Korean peninsula.
No change. Unless they nuke another country no-one is interested enough to do anything.

8) International agreement on climate change and actions designed to combat it (or not, as the case may be).
None, China continuing to expand emissions significantly and not interested in curbing them. US not prepared to give up standard of living or political donations which flow from the oil companies.
If US and China won't do anything there is zero point in the rest of us trying.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2010-01-26 16:50:20)

CameronPoe wrote:

OK folks, for posterity, it's time to test the D&ST posters' powers of prediction. For the following eight current affairs/hot topics please state in clear and unambiguous terms what you believe will be the situation with respect to each in exactly two years time.

1) The western occupation of Afghanistan.

Same or winding down

2) The western occupation of Iraq.

Winding down if not over

3) The Israeli occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Unchanged

4) Iran's nuclear capability and its relationship with the rest of the world.

I have a strange feeling half the country could blow up into a civil war sometime soon.

5) The global economy.

Will improve, slowly

6) The economic and political situation in Venezuela.

Will continue to go down the toilet

7) The political situation on the Korean peninsula.

Can't see too much happening here

8) International agreement on climate change and actions designed to combat it (or not, as the case may be).

doubt we'll see a big broad international agreement. probably more individual states taking some initiative, others tagging along and standardization coming along more by backroom assent more than anything else.

CameronPoe wrote:

OK folks, for posterity, it's time to test the D&ST posters' powers of prediction. For the following eight current affairs/hot topics please state in clear and unambiguous terms what you believe will be the situation with respect to each in exactly two years time.

1) The western occupation of Afghanistan.
    Not an occupation.

    NATO/ISAF will still be there, but with reduced representation as troop withdrawal will have begun. Taliban influence will be limited to South, much degraded over today.

2) The western occupation of Iraq.
    Not an occupation.

     Forces limited to support (training, logistics, advisors, etc) mostly. Some spikes in violence accompany US combat troop withdrawal as Iraqi troops take over. Some reports of questionable tactics from Iraqi forces in dealing with it.

3) The Israeli occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
    No change

4) Iran's nuclear capability and its relationship with the rest of the world.
    Degraded relations and/or sanctions. Very good chance of strikes against Iranian nuke sites by Israel if diplomatic efforts do not work. Decent chance of civil unrest.

5) The global economy.
    Better, but not nearly as good as we saw in 2000s. Continued weak dollar due to ridiculous debt.

6) The economic and political situation in Venezuela.
    Worsening. As much as Chavez might be trying to do the right thing, he's clueless to reality.

7) The political situation on the Korean peninsula.
    If the Chonger lives, no change. If he dies, improvement.

8) International agreement on climate change and actions designed to combat it (or not, as the case may be).
    No agreement on man-made global warming. Minimal agreement on actions to combat climate change.

Last edited by FEOS (2010-01-27 03:53:46)

I remember when you did the 20 years prediction thread, that was better. 2 years is such a small amount of time, there will be little if any change on those subjects.

FEOS wrote:

1) The western occupation of Afghanistan.
    Not an occupation.

2) The western occupation of Iraq.
    Not an occupation.

Sorry, replace 'western occupation of' with 'current western military presence and civil/political interference in'. Suffix it with ', following imposition of western norms of government'. Semantics are important.

Last edited by CameronPoe (2010-01-27 12:48:06)

1) Still there

2) Still there

3) Still there, but with a better hold on it than our hold on Iraqistan.

4) Developing a nuclear weapons program, supported by China, condemned by the West, economic sanctions imposed but fuck all useful being done to control it, possible war with Israel.

5) Still shaky but much improved.

6) Even worse than it currently is, probably a large civil war.

7) Same as it currently is, even if Kim jong il dies he'll be replaced by an identical clone like leader, equally as insane, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un

8) Large amount of restrictions on Europe imposed by EU, American and Chinese influence on it unchanged despite being the main contributors

Braddock wrote:

FEOS wrote:

CameronPoe wrote:

OK folks, for posterity, it's time to test the D&ST posters' powers of prediction. For the following eight current affairs/hot topics please state in clear and unambiguous terms what you believe will be the situation with respect to each in exactly two years time.

1) The western occupation of Afghanistan.
    Not an occupation.

    NATO/ISAF will still be there, but with reduced representation as troop withdrawal will have begun. Taliban influence will be limited to South, much degraded over today.

2) The western occupation of Iraq.
    Not an occupation.

     Forces limited to support (training, logistics, advisors, etc) mostly. Some spikes in violence accompany US combat troop withdrawal as Iraqi troops take over. Some reports of questionable tactics from Iraqi forces in dealing with it.

3) The Israeli occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
    No change

4) Iran's nuclear capability and its relationship with the rest of the world.
    Degraded relations and/or sanctions. Very good chance of strikes against Iranian nuke sites by Israel if diplomatic efforts do not work. Decent chance of civil unrest.

5) The global economy.
    Better, but not nearly as good as we saw in 2000s. Continued weak dollar due to ridiculous debt.

6) The economic and political situation in Venezuela.
    Worsening. As much as Chavez might be trying to do the right thing, he's clueless to reality.

7) The political situation on the Korean peninsula.
    If the Chonger lives, no change. If he dies, improvement.

8) International agreement on climate change and actions designed to combat it (or not, as the case may be).
    No agreement on man-made global warming. Minimal agreement on actions to combat climate change.

Just out of curiosity FEOS, would you have regarded the Russian war in Afghanistan to have been an occupation?

No.

And to be clear, the initial stages of both Afghanistan and Iraq certainly were occupations. Neither have been so for years.