Diesel_dyk
Object in mirror will feel larger than it appears
+178|5994|Truthistan
It looks as if the Federal reserve attempts at reflation might be ballooning up the economy, but its going to blow up in all of our faces. Right now we are on the verge of huge inflationary period and the Federal REserve is rudderless to do anything about it. Everyone expects the Fed to hold interest rates steady for the next year, because an increase in interest rates would really crush the economy rights now. But low interest rates = low dollar and that means  higher prices for the ordinary consumer. Now put that along side the increase in the money supply and the dollar is really going to be hurt. In fact, a comment on CNBC claims that the dollar may hit $1.50 against the Euro by the end of the year. the comment is at minute 2:45.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1 … amp;play=1

Hooray, looks like oil is going up to $100+ a barrel again, now that's money that will be taken right out of the pockets of consumers. Look for a new round of foreclosures and another collapse if consumer prices go through the roof.


And the so called rally on Wall street is a real fools market. The reflation is only reflating the prices and not the real value of the stocks. When everything is said and done the stocks are only going to be worth  what they are now when you adjust for true inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. and if we have another collapse after that then we will have a crappy economy, a dead dollar, high debt, impending high taxes and crushed stock market.... now that's something to look forward to.

This reflation policy will do nothing but inflate the sticker price on everything, in fact the only segment of society that will benefit from this will be the banks and the credit market because the sticker price on their security on their past loans will be reflated to reflect the paper value given on the credit instrument.

YAHHHHH save the creditors, and screw the rest of the economy.  Its like how the water rises in the toilet bowl just before the swirling vortex sucks everything down. I would look for the collapse to happen just after the 2010 election cycle but if what happened to Bush is any indicator it will probably happen August 2010 in the middle of campaigning - bye-bye dumocrats that what you get for listening to goldman sachs.
Red Forman
Banned
+402|5400
I was looking for something to disagree with, but I can't.  Well done sir.
13urnzz
Banned
+5,830|6498

Red Forman wrote:

I was looking for something to disagree with, but I can't.  Well done sir.
High praise indeed. i agree . . .
ATG
Banned
+5,233|6529|Global Command
Silly.

Only government can solve a problem of this magnitude. It is only through the systematic destruction of most private industry via the same inflation and commodity manipulation you spoke of that a permanent adjustment of our monentary system can be achieved.

People need to understand, America is not a place, it is an idea.
Catbox
forgiveness
+505|6716
They better hurry up and get the crap and tax bill and socialized healthcare through to save the economy... It's our only hope... lol
Like Obama said... We need to use California as our model... pffft     
    2010 please hurry up and get here.
Love is the answer
pilebomb
Member
+8|6120
Might be a minor point but I think that the reason oil is not at $100 a barrel right now is due to the economy being in the shitter. When things turn around and people can pay to put gas in their cars again, then oil will start climbing up sharply. And as far as I'm concerned, Wall Street is like Vegas but legal for the common man. Oh and that super hyper inflation thing is gonna be funzies.
13urnzz
Banned
+5,830|6498

pilebomb wrote:

Might be a minor point but I think that the reason oil is not at $100 a barrel right now is due to the economy being in the shitter.
or - the price of oil being tied to the dollar? meaning,


pilebomb wrote:

When things turn around and people can pay to put gas in their cars again, then oil will start climbing up sharply.
pilebomb
Member
+8|6120
Honestly, I put it more on supply and demand rather than being pegged to the dollar. Demand is down simply cause people can't pay for it.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|6601|132 and Bush

Red Forman wrote:

I was looking for something to disagree with, but I can't.  Well done sir.
I mean no offense but.. isn't he stating the obvious?

The only thing I would add that is at least worth considering.. Home inventory is actually declining atm. However, if we do in fact have another HUGE round of foreclosures inventory will again surge. BUT, it will not be combined with the reckless and out of control build on spec practices that we saw in the previous bubble. Why? .. because money (credit) is much tighter today, and many of those rob Peter to pay Paul lenders are out of business now.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
Harmor
Error_Name_Not_Found
+605|6549|San Diego, CA, USA
There's alot of bad loans still on the books...
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/07/servicers-making-out/

But of course if you can't afford a home buy this:
https://img29.imageshack.us/img29/892/75421765.jpg

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/07/living-small/
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|6601|132 and Bush

Harmor wrote:

There's alot of bad loans still on the books...
Right, but current lending practices have changed dramatically.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
Diesel_dyk
Object in mirror will feel larger than it appears
+178|5994|Truthistan
I would say people are wrong about thinking that the demand and supply of oil is driving the oil market.

Supply and demand for real oil has little to do with this trade, the trade is base on paper contracts for oil. Last years increase in oil in supply and demand terms was based on a decreased supply of paper contracts for oil and an increase in the demand for those contracts by hedge funds, big oil and speculators. And because those contracts could be passed around and bought and sold many many times before delivery of the real oil we had a riduculous bubble. There are no problems with the supply of real oil, there are no shortages of real oil.

Lately the price of oil has been lock step with the dollar. Oil moves up when the Euro moves up on the dollar. Dollar goes up against Euro and price of oil falls and if we get $62 barrel oil when the Euro is $1.39 and $75 barrel oil at $1.43 on the Euro, what's going to happen when the Euro goes to $1.50??? If its linear we are looking at $102 a barrel just based on currency devaluation and probably $3+ at the pump. Then add the parasitic speculation and this problem is going to be amplified. If last fall's spec bubble on oil shows us anything, its that oil might then go to $200 and Bernanke's error could deal a fatal blow to the US economy. To me this is where Bernanke is wrong in his reflation plan, there is no way he can predict the scope of the speculative feeding frenzy resulting from this reflation and since the Fed has set out its plan it means that its hands are now tied and it can't raise interest rates without causing severe shocks to the economy. The Fed is now rudderless because it has put all hope on a reflation plan so a rise in interest rates is not possible because it would strengthen the dollar which ironically would be good for consumers because it would increase savings rates, lower the cost of imports and oil, result in lower the cost of business inputs and that is exactly what is needed to pull us out of this depression. We need something to spur real growth in this country.

All that is going to happen in this reflation is that the "recovery" will be based on a period of stagflation where prices rise, the economy will be flat or mildly declining, peoples incomes and savings will lag behind the rise in prices, and the stock market will only appear to be gaining ground. We are paying far to high a price to save the member banks of the federal reserve union. This reflation is going to be supported by hidden taxation in the form of rising prices. Its going to be same as wringing out every last drop of blood out every person in the country because that is the only place left to squeeze this shrinking pie.


BTW just in case this reflation is successful then here's how you beat stagflation. Buy real estate, lock in you debt, in fact if you can afford buy real estate and take on as much fixed rate debt as you can, then sit back and let these jokers inflate you out of your debt.... its how the baby boomers made their money in the mid 1970s. You buy a house with a fixed rate and suddenly 5 years later the price you paid for the house is now only 6 months wages. The wonders of inflation. Of course what used to get you a cart full of groceries will only get you a couple of bags of groceries when that happens... uggg I can't think what it would be like to have to pay $100 for two bags of groceries but I'm sure we will all be finding that out very shortly.
Deadmonkiefart
Floccinaucinihilipilificator
+177|6706

Red Forman wrote:

I was looking for something to disagree with, but I can't.  Well done sir.
Seconded!
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|6601|132 and Bush

Diesel_dyk wrote:

Buy real estate, lock in you debt, in fact if you can afford buy real estate and take on as much fixed rate debt as you can, then sit back and let these jokers inflate you out of your debt.... its how the baby boomers made their money in the mid 1970s. You buy a house with a fixed rate and suddenly 5 years later the price you paid for the house is now only 6 months wages. The wonders of inflation. Of course what used to get you a cart full of groceries will only get you a couple of bags of groceries when that happens... uggg I can't think what it would be like to have to pay $100 for two bags of groceries but I'm sure we will all be finding that out very shortly.
A little extreme (half a years salary), but this type of reasoning is part of the problem. Expecting to make gobs of money off of an aging property. When people can't afford to feed themselves (your grocery/fuel scenario) they are going to start missing payments again. They will sell or face foreclosure. The market will flood and the house you just bought on the presumption of increasing value (predicting inflated prices) is now taking you to the cleaners as you watch your value fall. I do not feel the return inflation generates can outpace the supply/demand problems it creates on the way in the housing market.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
Diesel_dyk
Object in mirror will feel larger than it appears
+178|5994|Truthistan

Kmarion wrote:

Diesel_dyk wrote:

Buy real estate, lock in you debt, in fact if you can afford buy real estate and take on as much fixed rate debt as you can, then sit back and let these jokers inflate you out of your debt.... its how the baby boomers made their money in the mid 1970s. You buy a house with a fixed rate and suddenly 5 years later the price you paid for the house is now only 6 months wages. The wonders of inflation. Of course what used to get you a cart full of groceries will only get you a couple of bags of groceries when that happens... uggg I can't think what it would be like to have to pay $100 for two bags of groceries but I'm sure we will all be finding that out very shortly.
A little extreme (half a years salary), but this type of reasoning is part of the problem. Expecting to make gobs of money off of an aging property. When people can't afford to feed themselves (your grocery/fuel scenario) they are going to start missing payments again. They will sell or face foreclosure. The market will flood and the house you just bought on the presumption of increasing value (predicting inflated prices) is now taking you to the cleaners as you watch your value fall. I do not feel the return inflation generates can outpace the supply/demand problems it creates on the way in the housing market.
True, but the best advice is meant to be defensive in nature and to buy the house you are going to live in, lock in your rate, and live in your house for a long time. A lot of baby boomers made their money by doing just that. They didn't make a lot of money on stocks, savings or their pensions, they made their money by owning a house and then riding out the 1973 oil crisis and the stagflation that followed. While inflation leading to a houses value being only six months salary in inflated dollars wounds extreme, I didn't pluck that figure out of thin air as I know it to be a fact in at least one case.

Inflation is great if your personal debt is fixed because you get to pay back that debt in tomorrows devalued currency. But its a disaster for a nation if the national debt is in a foreign currency then you can't inflate yourself out of your debt because the currency will just devalue.

I agree that people are going to get hurt in this.

Board footer

Privacy Policy - © 2024 Jeff Minard