Background
Behind a guise of friendship, there are preparations for war. Russian claims of renewed want for nuclear disarmament, help in Afghanistan, and Chinese pledges of greater cooperation between our navies. While all this is going on, the Chinese are harassing our Navy in the South China Sea, Russia pressured Kyrgyzstan to shut down a US Airbase, and now is looking at the possibility of stationing bombers in our backyard.
i. Biden says Obama will be tested in first 6 months
ii. Kyrgyzstan Shuts Down US Base In What is a Major Diplomatic Victory for Russia
iii. Russia may help US in Afghanistan
iv. NK Plans rocket launch
v. NK Threatens Safety of Civilian Airliners
vi. War Warning
vii. Russia Wants Nuclear Disarmament
viii. US eyes Iran for Use for Resupply of Afghan Forces
ix. 5 Chinese Ships Harass US Intelligence Trawler
x. US-China pledge to reduce tensions, increase cooperation
xi. Japan May Shoot Down NK Missile
xii. Russian Bombers may be Stationed in Cuba/Venezuela
All of this separately would be innocuous, at most, slightly disturbing, but put all these things together and it doesn’t look so innocent any more. We have escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula, while at the same time the countries that would benefit most from a conflict there are finally acting the way we want (generally). If there is conflict, which seems likely, the forces arrayed to oppose it would be rather weak. A conflict based solely on Korea has been expected for decades, but never materialized. The ROK and limited US forces based in country would most likely be enough by themselves to slow an advance by the DPRK forces until the time when reinforcement would arrive, but because of current commitments to both Iraq and Afghanistan, the readably deployable forces are rather weak. Most likely enough to stop the attack, but leave nothing else to prevent other actions. The “other actions” will be covered in the “Coinciding Events” section.
Scenarios
Between April 4-8, the DPRK will launch a single Taepodong-2 ICBM.
a. Scenario A
The missile will be destroyed in the course of its flight, possibly from an interception, or possibly done intentionally by DPRK forces to frame the West, ROK, and Japan. As promised if the missile is destroyed, a full scale DPRK assault into the ROK will be launched.
b. Scenario B
The ICBM will be launched successfully, and the payload will be put into a orbit mimicking that of a failed satellite launch. In reality, it is a nuclear warhead in a slowly decaying orbit that will be detonated at high altitude over the continental United States. Following this there will be a full scale DPRK assault into the ROK. Because the warhead was exploded at high altitude, US electronic systems will be negated; there would be no more early warning systems, communications, power, etc. The United States would come to a complete and utter halt. The entire United States would be paralyzed, not to mention the political and economy implications this would have.
1. Scenario B, Option A
It is possible that this time of blinded US sensors, impaired communications, and confusion could be used for a disarming first strike by either Russia or China against US bomber bases, ICBM silos, harbors which support Ohio class subs, and facilities which support the heads of government. By using only part of their arsenals, they would hold the ability to completely annihilate the rest of the US if we so chose to launch a retaliatory attack. This Option is considered highly unlikely.
2. Scenario B, Option B
Assuming that the single detonation is the culmination of the attack, the US would be unable to respond in kind. The US does not have a FOBS style system, and a attack with one would be rather ineffective on the primitive DPRK society. The lack of electronic devises in everyday life would not affect the average citizen much, and the government would likely be able to still function because of the tight control it holds over the population. Taking this all into account, there are now only two options left, conventional warfare, or nuclear attacks on ground targets.
A nuclear attack against a ground target would be met with widespread criticism and extremely negative world opinion. The DPRK’s high altitude detonation would have not directly harmed any civilians or military personnel, and a counter strike that did would not be looked upon favorably.
The only viable option left would be conventional warfare. Up until recently, the US Armed forces were designed so they could (on paper), fight two regional conflicts, and 1 major conflict at the same time. The ability to do this in reality is highly questionable. Just to support the forces in Iraq and Afghanistan the US Air Mobility Command has been stretched. If Russia exerts pressure on NATO forces in Afghanistan by cutting off the main route of resupply, it would become unlikely that the US would be able to support Afghanistan and Iraq, leaving nothing for the movement of troops, equipment, and supplies to Korea or other hot spots.
Speculation as to the Reasons Behind Brewing Conflict
Both Russia and China have been hurt harder then most by the economic crisis and often in times like these leaders will attempt to turn their problems outward. Both would benefit greatly from conflict on the Korean peninsula. Just recently, in August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia under the cover of the Olympics. A conflict in Korea would leave Russia or China free to do as they please, and a possible Chinese dump of American assets would utterly destroy what is remaining of the American economy and give the Chinese a chance to rebuild their economy in a self sufficient manner. Also, with Russia’s large reserves of both oil and natural gas, western Europe would not be inclined to interfere because of the risk of losing their fuel supplies and further destruction of their economies.
Coinciding Events
As previously mentioned, a conflict on the Korean peninsula would leave both Russia and China generally free to do as they wish. There are multiple things that may happen along with the Korean conflict, everything from unofficial, back channel aid, too open military support. Most likely would be Russian pressure upon the NATO forces in Afghanistan, creating a very difficult resupply situation, and possibly forcing a withdrawal. In Europe we may see Russian pressure upon the Eastern European and Crimean states including that of a full scale invasion under the guise of “defense” against the ABM defenses being set up (even though these missiles will not effect any launch against the continental US), or to prevent their admission to NATO. A European response to either of these is unlikely as oil and gas supplies would be cut off, and the difficulties of moving and supporting Western European forces in Eastern Europe. In South East Asia the PRC may attempt to secure the disputed territories in the South China Sea area as is evident by their recent build up of forces in that area, also, this would serve as a diversion of US Navy forces from Korea. Finally, in an attempt to divert further US assets, Russia may station Tu-95s in Venezuela and Cuba, the US would be forced to move some AWAC’s, tankers, and fighters down south to intercept these and alleviate public fears.
Whoa... Can't believe these forums are still kicking.
