does Hamas NEEEd to make a significant blow to isreal to win ? no! all they need to do a survive.jord wrote:
Why would a country with superior... Well, everything take the defeat option and go home? If anyone should surrender it's Hamas, they can actually save a lot of lives, and they don't stand a chance of making any significant blows to Israel anytime soon....
The reason being that Hamas haven't been beaten. They're still firing as many rockets today as they were six days ago, bringing the economy of much of southern Israel to a standstill. I think this is a pride issue for them, because the actual effects of their rocket attacks are minimal.jord wrote:
Why would a country with superior... Well, everything take the defeat option and go home? If anyone should surrender it's Hamas, they can actually save a lot of lives, and they don't stand a chance of making any significant blows to Israel anytime soon....
Hamas, Israel, and all the other Arab states need each other Cam. The Palestinians have very wealthy neighbors. They aren't too interested in "spreading the wealth". Israel provides a nice excuse. Blame is the name of the game all around.
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Oh no, I don't think they will. I think they should.CameronPoe wrote:
Bertster, personally I think that as long as the Israelis persist with their hardline on a united Jerusalem there will always be a band of men ready to attack them, always. Do you think Israel will concede the east Jerusalem issue?Bertster7 wrote:
Meh, I disagree.
Gradual concessions and Israeli backed initiatives that improve the quality on life for Palestinians, over the next couple of generations could well work. The situation in the West Bank hasn't been too bad recently. Help the Palestinians to live normal lives which Israel are actively seen to be making better, not worse and the problems will go away, eventually.
Obviously there is no overnight solution - which is where the Israelis are going terribly wrong in dealing with this. They should be playing the long game - not following their current course of action which probably does more harm than good in the long term.
My point is that whilst their current approach is doomed to perpetual failure, they could stop the rocket attacks eventually through improving (and being seen to improve, since this is all about perceptions) the quality of life for Palestinians. Stopping all Jewish settlers in Palestine (which they've been doing a better job of lately), not bombing Palestinians, a more "softly, softly" approach to security and some changes to Jerusalem - possibly not handing over East Jerusalem, but maybe shared administration of Jerusalem or suchlike, could all be important factors.
They are still firing as many rockets today?CameronPoe wrote:
The reason being that Hamas haven't been beaten. They're still firing as many rockets today as they were six days ago, bringing the economy of much of southern Israel to a standstill. I think this is a pride issue for them, because the actual effects of their rocket attacks are minimal.jord wrote:
Why would a country with superior... Well, everything take the defeat option and go home? If anyone should surrender it's Hamas, they can actually save a lot of lives, and they don't stand a chance of making any significant blows to Israel anytime soon....
Strange if true. I bet in another week they definitely won't be.
Why is it strange? It fits with previous similar incidents perfectly. In the Lebanon fiasco the numbers of rockets being fired at Israel increased as Israel increased the intensity of attacks and as time wore on. There is no viable option available to the IDF to make the attacks stop or even to substantially reduce the levels of them.jord wrote:
They are still firing as many rockets today?CameronPoe wrote:
The reason being that Hamas haven't been beaten. They're still firing as many rockets today as they were six days ago, bringing the economy of much of southern Israel to a standstill. I think this is a pride issue for them, because the actual effects of their rocket attacks are minimal.jord wrote:
Why would a country with superior... Well, everything take the defeat option and go home? If anyone should surrender it's Hamas, they can actually save a lot of lives, and they don't stand a chance of making any significant blows to Israel anytime soon....
Strange if true. I bet in another week they definitely won't be.
You can't beat two/three man bands of highly mobile rocket launchers with bombs from thousands of feet up. Reconnaissance of their activity alone would be difficult to maintain in a timely enough fashion to launch an effective retaliatory attack (never mind pre-emptive).jord wrote:
They are still firing as many rockets today?
Strange if true. I bet in another week they definitely won't be.
But in one week there will be ground forces all over GazaCameronPoe wrote:
You can't beat two/three man bands of highly mobile rocket launchers with bombs from thousands of feet up. Reconnaissance of their activity alone would be difficult to maintain in a timely enough fashion to launch an effective retaliatory attack (never mind pre-emptive).jord wrote:
They are still firing as many rockets today?
Strange if true. I bet in another week they definitely won't be.
and then they wouldn't need to fire rockets at targets miles away cos they'd be right in dey face
Problem solved
Didn't work in Lebanon.Mekstizzle wrote:
But in one week there will be ground forces all over GazaCameronPoe wrote:
You can't beat two/three man bands of highly mobile rocket launchers with bombs from thousands of feet up. Reconnaissance of their activity alone would be difficult to maintain in a timely enough fashion to launch an effective retaliatory attack (never mind pre-emptive).jord wrote:
They are still firing as many rockets today?
Strange if true. I bet in another week they definitely won't be.
and then they wouldn't need to fire rockets at targets miles away cos they'd be right in dey face
Problem solved
You can but it requires more than what Israel have at their disposal, you would need to create a temporary big brother society out of Gaza, using helicopters and UAV's and watching all the time.CameronPoe wrote:
You can't beat two/three man bands of highly mobile rocket launchers with bombs from thousands of feet up. Reconnaissance of their activity alone would be difficult to maintain in a timely enough fashion to launch an effective retaliatory attack (never mind pre-emptive).jord wrote:
They are still firing as many rockets today?
Strange if true. I bet in another week they definitely won't be.
Israel will have killed a lot of Hamas militants that are firing the rockets as well as destroyed a lot of the systems. It seems that Hamas has a large supply of willing volunteers and munitions.
Nothing that can't be severely reduced within 2 weeks, if not the militants but the munitions.
I wouldn't like to be an Israeli grunt entering the most densely populated and urbanised hostile patch of land in the Mediterranean. When the ground offensive begins Hamas will have what they want: a victory against Israel. Why? Because Israel cannot defeat Hamas. It just isn't possible. And the ground offensive will result in massive Israeli casualties - meaning Hamas, irrespective of the K/D ratio, can claim victory in the Arab world against the Zionist imperialists.Mekstizzle wrote:
But in one week there will be ground forces all over Gaza
and then they wouldn't need to fire rockets at targets miles away cos they'd be right in dey face
Problem solved
As Bert said, why would they win when they demonstrably could not win in the exact same situation in Lebanon?
Last edited by CameronPoe (2009-01-02 09:11:10)
After several weeks of Israel aerial bombardment and tank/infantry skirmishes Hezbollah fired more missiles at Israel on the last day of hostilities than it did on any other day of the conflict. This is irresistible force versus immovable object type stuff we have here.jord wrote:
You can but it requires more than what Israel have at their disposal, you would need to create a temporary big brother society out of Gaza, using helicopters and UAV's and watching all the time.
Israel will have killed a lot of Hamas militants that are firing the rockets as well as destroyed a lot of the systems. It seems that Hamas has a large supply of willing volunteers and munitions.
Nothing that can't be severely reduced within 2 weeks, if not the militants but the munitions.
Last edited by CameronPoe (2009-01-02 09:17:23)
Probably, but at least the rocket attacks would probably stop cos they'd have Israeli's to attack right in their face. Kind of like how it is with US Soldiers in Afghanistan and why there hasn't really been any attacks in the USA. Essentially, cannon fodder to protect the civilians, honourable stuff etc...
Saying that, if they learnt lessons in Lebanon there's a good chance they can actually do better this time round. Also Hamas aren't Hezbollah, they had some high tech shit from Iran etc.. but Hamas don't have much, plus I'd imagine Israel "know" Palestine/Gaza much more than they do Lebanon, so I doubt it would be as much of a disaster
Saying that, if they learnt lessons in Lebanon there's a good chance they can actually do better this time round. Also Hamas aren't Hezbollah, they had some high tech shit from Iran etc.. but Hamas don't have much, plus I'd imagine Israel "know" Palestine/Gaza much more than they do Lebanon, so I doubt it would be as much of a disaster
For the first time ever Hamas hit Beersheba with a Grad rocket the other day. That's not too far from the Israeli nuclear facility at Dimona. And I don't think the Afghan mission is directly responsible for averting US homeland attacks. If any Tom, Dick or Harry from Saudi to Syria wanted to launch an attack on the US they could do so quite readily - attacks on the US homeland weren't exactly frequent to begin with.Mekstizzle wrote:
Probably, but at least the rocket attacks would probably stop cos they'd have Israeli's to attack right in their face. Kind of like how it is with US Soldiers in Afghanistan and why there hasn't really been any attacks in the USA. Essentially, cannon fodder to protect the civilians, honourable stuff etc...
Saying that, if they learnt lessons in Lebanon there's a good chance they can actually do better this time round. Also Hamas aren't Hezbollah, they had some high tech shit from Iran etc.. but Hamas don't have much, plus I'd imagine Israel "know" Palestine/Gaza much more than they do Lebanon, so I doubt it would be as much of a disaster
Unfortunatly both of you are missing the real objective in that region. It is not negotiated borders or quality of life issues. The objective in that region is the complete and irreversable destruction of Israel. There is no middle ground. This will continue until Israel wins or Israel is gone. Israel has already tried a negotiated peace it will not workBertster7 wrote:
Oh no, I don't think they will. I think they should.CameronPoe wrote:
Bertster, personally I think that as long as the Israelis persist with their hardline on a united Jerusalem there will always be a band of men ready to attack them, always. Do you think Israel will concede the east Jerusalem issue?Bertster7 wrote:
Meh, I disagree.
Gradual concessions and Israeli backed initiatives that improve the quality on life for Palestinians, over the next couple of generations could well work. The situation in the West Bank hasn't been too bad recently. Help the Palestinians to live normal lives which Israel are actively seen to be making better, not worse and the problems will go away, eventually.
Obviously there is no overnight solution - which is where the Israelis are going terribly wrong in dealing with this. They should be playing the long game - not following their current course of action which probably does more harm than good in the long term.
My point is that whilst their current approach is doomed to perpetual failure, they could stop the rocket attacks eventually through improving (and being seen to improve, since this is all about perceptions) the quality of life for Palestinians. Stopping all Jewish settlers in Palestine (which they've been doing a better job of lately), not bombing Palestinians, a more "softly, softly" approach to security and some changes to Jerusalem - possibly not handing over East Jerusalem, but maybe shared administration of Jerusalem or suchlike, could all be important factors.
By what was said, Israel won't just back down this time either, they're going for the long haul on these guys, hunting every single one of them.jord wrote:
You can but it requires more than what Israel have at their disposal, you would need to create a temporary big brother society out of Gaza, using helicopters and UAV's and watching all the time.CameronPoe wrote:
You can't beat two/three man bands of highly mobile rocket launchers with bombs from thousands of feet up. Reconnaissance of their activity alone would be difficult to maintain in a timely enough fashion to launch an effective retaliatory attack (never mind pre-emptive).jord wrote:
They are still firing as many rockets today?
Strange if true. I bet in another week they definitely won't be.
Israel will have killed a lot of Hamas militants that are firing the rockets as well as destroyed a lot of the systems. It seems that Hamas has a large supply of willing volunteers and munitions.
Nothing that can't be severely reduced within 2 weeks, if not the militants but the munitions.
You've missed the point entirely. I'm not talking about a negotiated peace, for starters. I'm talking about a complete shift in attitudes, which is the only way this will work. There would certainly not be immediate results, but over a few generations the hatred would subside and the situation would become more practical and less emotional. If Israel keep giving them reasons to hate them, then it will never end.lowing wrote:
Unfortunatly both of you are missing the real objective in that region. It is not negotiated borders or quality of life issues. The objective in that region is the complete and irreversable destruction of Israel. There is no middle ground. This will continue until Israel wins or Israel is gone. Israel has already tried a negotiated peace it will not workBertster7 wrote:
Oh no, I don't think they will. I think they should.CameronPoe wrote:
Bertster, personally I think that as long as the Israelis persist with their hardline on a united Jerusalem there will always be a band of men ready to attack them, always. Do you think Israel will concede the east Jerusalem issue?
My point is that whilst their current approach is doomed to perpetual failure, they could stop the rocket attacks eventually through improving (and being seen to improve, since this is all about perceptions) the quality of life for Palestinians. Stopping all Jewish settlers in Palestine (which they've been doing a better job of lately), not bombing Palestinians, a more "softly, softly" approach to security and some changes to Jerusalem - possibly not handing over East Jerusalem, but maybe shared administration of Jerusalem or suchlike, could all be important factors.
The objectives of an organisation and the objectives of the people are two different things. Many of the people of Gaza are disallusioned with Hamas. It is public opinion that needs to change - then who will replace the Hamas leadership as they die out? Give the children of Palestine less reason to hate the Israelis - as it stands every one who loses family to Israeli bombs is a potential extremist.
This is something that would take maybe 50 years to produce any concrete results - but it is the only way. The sooner they start, the better it will be for everyone.
And the Israeli objective, almost achieved, is the complete and irreversible destruction of Palestine.Lowing wrote:
Unfortunatly both of you are missing the real objective in that region. It is not negotiated borders or quality of life issues. The objective in that region is the complete and irreversable destruction of Israel.
What do you expect the Palestinians to do exactly?
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Hamas should have started by at least honoring the previous truce. That would have at least been something to build on. It might have led to the return of even more land. I guess we will never know though.Dilbert_X wrote:
And the Israeli objective, almost achieved, is the complete and irreversible destruction of Palestine.Lowing wrote:
Unfortunatly both of you are missing the real objective in that region. It is not negotiated borders or quality of life issues. The objective in that region is the complete and irreversable destruction of Israel.
What do you expect the Palestinians to do exactly?
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No it isn't.Dilbert_X wrote:
And the Israeli objective, almost achieved, is the complete and irreversible destruction of Palestine.Lowing wrote:
Unfortunatly both of you are missing the real objective in that region. It is not negotiated borders or quality of life issues. The objective in that region is the complete and irreversable destruction of Israel.
What do you expect the Palestinians to do exactly?
They want a stable secure Palestine. But they aren't prepared to make the sacrifices that could make that a reality. They opt for the more intuitive, yet completely ineffectual, retalliation when attacked and extreme security measures to prevent attacks. All this achieves very little and this short sighted approach will get them nowhere.
That would require Hamas be willing to negotiate...they're less interested in negotiation than Israel is.Dilbert_X wrote:
A negotiated peace would make far more sense than endless military intervention.
In the long run thats what is going to have to happen.
The Israelis aren't interested in that however.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein
Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
― Albert Einstein
Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
That same analysis applies to Hamas, clearly shown by the progress being made by Abbas and Fatah in the West Bank. It's not happening overnight, but they learned that poking Israel in the eye does absolutely nothing positive for the Palestinian people.Bertster7 wrote:
No it isn't.Dilbert_X wrote:
And the Israeli objective, almost achieved, is the complete and irreversible destruction of Palestine.Lowing wrote:
Unfortunatly both of you are missing the real objective in that region. It is not negotiated borders or quality of life issues. The objective in that region is the complete and irreversable destruction of Israel.
What do you expect the Palestinians to do exactly?
They want a stable secure Palestine. But they aren't prepared to make the sacrifices that could make that a reality. They opt for the more intuitive, yet completely ineffectual, retalliation when attacked and extreme security measures to prevent attacks. All this achieves very little and this short sighted approach will get them nowhere.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein
Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
― Albert Einstein
Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
Can you show where Israel has stated such an objective, cuz I can show you where the Arab and Islamic nations have stated their intentDilbert_X wrote:
And the Israeli objective, almost achieved, is the complete and irreversible destruction of Palestine.Lowing wrote:
Unfortunatly both of you are missing the real objective in that region. It is not negotiated borders or quality of life issues. The objective in that region is the complete and irreversable destruction of Israel.
What do you expect the Palestinians to do exactly?
At the moment I think the rest of the Arab states want nothing to do with Israel. One thing for a quasi-government well versed in asymmetric warfare and with an extremist outlook, another for the rather shaky regimes (fuck I hate that word) surrounding them looking to protect their oil incomes.
The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
~ Richard Feynman
Yes I can.Lowing wrote:
Can you show where Israel has stated such an objective, cuz I can show you where the Arab and Islamic nations have stated their intent
That was the stated objective in ~1919, no doubt it remains the objective - restated recently or not.
Neither side has honoured the truce, Hamas firing Rockets is a dumb act really - but when their country is totally blockaded what else can they do?
The Israelis are being way to heavy handed, killing the Police and blowing up government buildings and mosques is going to acheive precisely nothing and could bring the West Bank and Hezbollah into the conflagration.
At this point a ceasefire, probably supervised by an external power, is the only realistic option.
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