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Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|5677|132 and Bush

-----------------------------------------------------Tonight is your answer

-------------------------------------------------Obama pays tribute to McCain

--------------------------------====---------Full Victory Speech Transcript
https://i38.tinypic.com/33wwmk9.jpg

Key Battleground States closing times (ET):
7 p.m. Indiana, Virginia 04 November 2008 20:00:00 EDT
7:30 p.m. Ohio, North Carolina 04 November 2008 20:30:00 EDT
8 p.m. Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri 04 November 2008 21:00:00 EDT (FL is the largest swing state)
----*McCain needs nearly all of the above states to have a chance------------------------------------------------
9 p.m. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, North Dakota 04 November 2008 22:00:00 EDT
10 p.m. Nevada, Montana 04 November 2008 23:00:00 EDT
Iowa is no longer a Battleground state

* CNN Electoral Map Calculator

https://i38.tinypic.com/5kq7p1.jpg
Xbone Stormsurgezz
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|5481|North Carolina
https://i35.tinypic.com/5ttj61.png

Obama 353  McCain 185

source: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Now, even if we assume that more conservative estimates are correct, Obama still wins.

Obama 338  McCain 200

source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls … in/?map=10

So, I guess the question is...

If McCain somehow miraculously wins at this point, which seems most likely?

1) the polls are just wrong due to faulty methodologies.
2) the Bradley Effect is more significant than anticipated.
3) too many Obama supporters mistakenly assume Obama will win without them and they don't show up to vote.
4) the electoral system is seriously corrupted in key swing states.

Discuss....
usmarine
Banned
+2,785|5838

polls usually mean doo doo
God Save the Queen
Banned
+628|5420|tropical regions of london
i dont think he's getting ohio or florida

Last edited by God Save the Queen (2008-11-03 15:37:11)

Poseidon
Fudgepack DeQueef
+3,253|5614|Long Island, New York
NC went slightly red, so throw that back to McCain. Regardless, I just don't see how McCain could win at this point. The polls were very accurate in 2004, and you'd think that the polling is much more advanced nowadays.

Last edited by Poseidon (2008-11-03 16:14:38)

Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|5481|North Carolina

God Save the Queen wrote:

i dont think he's getting ohio or florida
The good news is...  he doesn't need either to win...  but yeah...  I could see McCain getting those as well.
God Save the Queen
Banned
+628|5420|tropical regions of london
or north carolina or virginia.  virginia has a bunch of drunk sailors.


republicans outnumbered democrats in the early voting in NC. is what i heard

Last edited by God Save the Queen (2008-11-03 15:40:10)

God Save the Queen
Banned
+628|5420|tropical regions of london

Poseidon wrote:



NC went slightly red, so throw that back to McCain. Regardless, I just don't see how McCain could win at this point. The polls were very accurate in 2004, and you'd think that the polling is much more advanced nowadays.
the exit polls werent accurate at all though
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|5481|North Carolina

God Save the Queen wrote:

or north carolina or virginia.  virginia has a bunch of drunk sailors.


republicans outnumbered democrats in the early voting in NC. is what i heard
If Obama doesn't get Ohio, Florida, NC, or Virginia, the election will be very close.
Poseidon
Fudgepack DeQueef
+3,253|5614|Long Island, New York
I think he'll get Virginia, but not Florida.

Luckily, if he gets PA, he only needs 14 more EVs. Colorado and New Mexico can provide those, and it's looking likely that they'll go for Obama.
God Save the Queen
Banned
+628|5420|tropical regions of london
as long as he gets PA its good
SealXo
Member
+309|5612

Poseidon wrote:



NC went slightly red, so throw that back to McCain. Regardless, I just don't see how McCain could win at this point. The polls were very accurate in 2004, and you'd think that the polling is much more advanced nowadays.
exit polls got leaked to a kerry win,
Bell
Frosties > Cornflakes
+362|5626|UK

usmarine wrote:

polls usually mean doo doo
I agree.  If a poll turns out to be right, it's probably luck.
God Save the Queen
Banned
+628|5420|tropical regions of london
hawaii and alaska are in the union btw
Poseidon
Fudgepack DeQueef
+3,253|5614|Long Island, New York

SealXo wrote:

Poseidon wrote:



NC went slightly red, so throw that back to McCain. Regardless, I just don't see how McCain could win at this point. The polls were very accurate in 2004, and you'd think that the polling is much more advanced nowadays.
exit polls got leaked to a kerry win,
Um. What?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presid … Final.html

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e … ge2004.svg

On quick glance, the only state that RCP was wrong about was Wisconsin, and that was less than 1 point in Bush's favor.
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|5481|North Carolina

God Save the Queen wrote:

hawaii and alaska are in the union btw
lol...  I knew I forgot something....
God Save the Queen
Banned
+628|5420|tropical regions of london
the network polls crunched different data than the one you are showing there.  I distinctly remember kerry being up in Ohio and other states early  only to have the vote count throw off the poll.
Switch
Knee Deep In Clunge
+489|5540|Tyne & Wear, England

God Save the Queen wrote:

i dont think he's getting ohio
Well ... marine did his best to help.
Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known.
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|5751|Canberra, AUS
In my view, if PA doesn't go red it doesn't matter. Obama wins - though of the 6 or 7 or so "undecided" states, I seriously, seriously doubt McCain will win ALL of them.
The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
Poseidon
Fudgepack DeQueef
+3,253|5614|Long Island, New York

God Save the Queen wrote:

the network polls crunched different data than the one you are showing there.  I distinctly remember kerry being up in Ohio and other states early  only to have the vote count throw off the poll.
Check the last week.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presid … polls.html

Bush is up in all but one poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls … html#polls

Obama is up in all but 2 polls (this past week or so), and has been leading in the majority of the polls since the end of September.
usmarine
Banned
+2,785|5838

KILLSWITCH wrote:

God Save the Queen wrote:

i dont think he's getting ohio
Well ... marine did his best to help.
dont remind me
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|5751|Canberra, AUS

usmarine wrote:

KILLSWITCH wrote:

God Save the Queen wrote:

i dont think he's getting ohio
Well ... marine did his best to help.
dont remind me
I was about to say
The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
God Save the Queen
Banned
+628|5420|tropical regions of london

Poseidon wrote:

God Save the Queen wrote:

the network polls crunched different data than the one you are showing there.  I distinctly remember kerry being up in Ohio and other states early  only to have the vote count throw off the poll.
Check the last week.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presid … polls.html

Bush is up in all but one poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls … html#polls

Obama is up in all but 2 polls (this past week or so), and has been leading in the majority of the polls since the end of September.
those arent exit polls
Poseidon
Fudgepack DeQueef
+3,253|5614|Long Island, New York

God Save the Queen wrote:

Poseidon wrote:

God Save the Queen wrote:

the network polls crunched different data than the one you are showing there.  I distinctly remember kerry being up in Ohio and other states early  only to have the vote count throw off the poll.
Check the last week.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presid … polls.html

Bush is up in all but one poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls … html#polls

Obama is up in all but 2 polls (this past week or so), and has been leading in the majority of the polls since the end of September.
those arent exit polls
Regardless, they're still polls, and they correctly predicted a Bush win. And he didn't even have a lead as big as Obama does going in.
God Save the Queen
Banned
+628|5420|tropical regions of london
ok....an exit poll is different than an opinion poll because the person is asked directly after they have voted.


exit polls in 2004 said kerry was ahead

not opinion polls, exit polls.

no regardless about it man, Im talking about exit polls and you arent and they are two majorly different things

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