Pages: 1

 

2008-04-24 22:50:46
ATG
Banned
+5,233|6526|Global Command
It's amazing how many times in the last few months it has been said to me that I should bail on my house and let it foreclose because the market is so upside down.
People are so pessimistic right now, I have never experienced anything like this. Short of turning off the news for six months, the only good thing I got to offer is that if we all continue to focus on the negatives it will make them happen.

We all need to chill the hell out. Wait and see, yet make preparations. Buy freeze dried food and ammo, seeds and medical supplies and books on how to use them. Spend money, don't horde it.
Check out some of the scary charts on this site;
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3570.html


" When US homeowners default on their mortgages en-mass, they destroy money faster than the Fed can replace it through normal channels. The result is a liquidity crisis which deflates asset prices and reduces monetized wealth, says economist Henry Liu. "


It doesn't have to be A Vicious Circle ending in a Systemic Financial Meltdown.

https://www.blackhorsedesign.com/artworks/four-horsemen-apocalypse.jpg

Last edited by ATG (2008-04-24 22:52:16)

2008-04-24 23:03:12
Ender2309
has joined the GOP
+470|6568|USA
i turn 18 in a month. i'm really fucking scared. is there going to be a society for me to live in as an adult?
2008-04-24 23:05:49
Spark
liquid fluoride thorium reactor
+874|6672|Canberra, AUS

Ender2309 wrote:

i turn 18 in a month. i'm really fucking scared. is there going to be a society for me to live in as an adult?
I would be astonished if there isn't.
The paradox is only a conflict between reality and your feeling what reality ought to be.
~ Richard Feynman
2008-04-24 23:06:46
SenorToenails
Veritas et Scientia
+444|6127|North Tonawanda, NY

Ender2309 wrote:

i turn 18 in a month. i'm really fucking scared. is there going to be a society for me to live in as an adult?
Yes, there is going to be a society to live in.  Rome didn't fall overnight, you know.
2008-04-24 23:12:55
Ender2309
has joined the GOP
+470|6568|USA
it was rhetorical guys.
2008-04-24 23:35:45
ATG
Banned
+5,233|6526|Global Command
This is lunacy. No country, however powerful, can maintain these staggering numbers. The country is in hock up to its neck and has to borrow $2.5 billion per day just to stay above water. Presently, the Fed is expanding the money supply and buying back its own treasuries to hide the hemorrhaging from the public. Its utter madness.

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney07052006.html


This is a presentation of a New York investment firm, not some doomsday freakouts. Rather scary.

Last edited by ATG (2008-04-24 23:53:19)

2008-04-25 03:50:11
lowing
Banned
+1,662|6648|USA

SenorToenails wrote:

Ender2309 wrote:

i turn 18 in a month. i'm really fucking scared. is there going to be a society for me to live in as an adult?
Yes, there is going to be a society to live in.  Rome didn't fall overnight, you know.
yup, it took a few years for liberals to destroy a good thing.
2008-04-25 07:03:07
chittydog
less busy
+586|6832|Kubra, Damn it!

Did I miss something, or haven't conservatives been in charge for the majority of the past 27 years?
2008-04-25 07:35:56
Ender2309
has joined the GOP
+470|6568|USA

chittydog wrote:

Did I miss something, or haven't conservatives been in charge for the majority of the past 27 years?
the democratic party is the most unelectable in US history. they've had something like 10 presidents to the republicans' 27*.  they rarely get candidates in office. the republicans fucked up guys.



*rough numbers, actual figures may be different, but same general ratio.

Last edited by Ender2309 (2008-04-25 07:38:24)

2008-04-25 07:40:18
PuckMercury
6 x 9 = 42
+298|6524|Portland, OR USA
Nearly every economic crisis I can think of has been caused by over reactions to small fluctuations and "dire predictions" to include the Great Depression.  I absolutely agree with the OP.  Relax.  Spend but spend wisely.  Be a part of the freaking solution.
2008-04-25 07:42:54
Ender2309
has joined the GOP
+470|6568|USA
puck couldn't have put it better.
2008-04-25 11:51:27
IRONCHEF
Member
+385|6488|Northern California
I'm going to be "walking away" from my home starting June 1st.  it'll give me a good 6 months to pay off all our debt, debt we've accrued by not being able to afford the home payments as planned.  We're prepared for fanny mae's "5 years" of doom and gloom credit, and we'll quickly recover those lost 200 points or so maintaining minimal balances on 4 healthy lines of credit.

We're aware that our neighbors will hate us, even though our foreclosure won't effect them as much as the city has already effected them (just in our 180 condo complex, 50% of the homes have foreclosed already).  Our home is worth around $150k, not the $280k it was when we bought it 2 years ago.  TO us, it is simple business ethics.  Why hemorrage money on an investment when: I've used some of my 401K to stay in the black, use all tax returns and any other funds to pay down credit lines to keep them under 20k, and live in a damned ghetto where my lovely wife and kids are at risk daily in and outside the teenie condo?  So no, it's no choice for us to make, we simply have to get out.  We only wanted to remain their for 5 years, but it will take at least 3 or 4 to recoup lost value to get at what we owe, then it has to sell...after ALL the other foreclosed homes sell and dry up...long after 5 years.  As it is, we'll rent now and be debt free with bad credit for a few years, and be able to move to Montana anytime we wish.

But yeah, as for the panic and hoarding, that's just dumb, and that alone will cause havok in this country.  I am an emergency preparedness leader in my church congregation and I regularly take members of that group to our church's food cannery warehouse to build up on our year supply food rotations.  This quarter, we're doing rice, dried carrots, and potato flakes.  Everyone is ordering gobs and gobs of rice because they heard the rumors that all the rice in china is GONE!  So i've spent some time telling them to chill and not hoard..it isn't responsible or necessary.  Just get the normal 2 or 4 cans of rice, not 2 cases, etc.  Buncha noobs.

Last edited by IRONCHEF (2008-04-25 11:53:41)

2008-04-25 12:27:52
ATG
Banned
+5,233|6526|Global Command

IRONCHEF wrote:

I'm going to be "walking away" from my home starting June 1st.  it'll give me a good 6 months to pay off all our debt, debt we've accrued by not being able to afford the home payments as planned.  We're prepared for fanny mae's "5 years" of doom and gloom credit, and we'll quickly recover those lost 200 points or so maintaining minimal balances on 4 healthy lines of credit.

We're aware that our neighbors will hate us, even though our foreclosure won't effect them as much as the city has already effected them (just in our 180 condo complex, 50% of the homes have foreclosed already).  Our home is worth around $150k, not the $280k it was when we bought it 2 years ago.  TO us, it is simple business ethics.  Why hemorrage money on an investment when: I've used some of my 401K to stay in the black, use all tax returns and any other funds to pay down credit lines to keep them under 20k, and live in a damned ghetto where my lovely wife and kids are at risk daily in and outside the teenie condo?  So no, it's no choice for us to make, we simply have to get out.  We only wanted to remain their for 5 years, but it will take at least 3 or 4 to recoup lost value to get at what we owe, then it has to sell...after ALL the other foreclosed homes sell and dry up...long after 5 years.  As it is, we'll rent now and be debt free with bad credit for a few years, and be able to move to Montana anytime we wish.

But yeah, as for the panic and hoarding, that's just dumb, and that alone will cause havok in this country.  I am an emergency preparedness leader in my church congregation and I regularly take members of that group to our church's food cannery warehouse to build up on our year supply food rotations.  This quarter, we're doing rice, dried carrots, and potato flakes.  Everyone is ordering gobs and gobs of rice because they heard the rumors that all the rice in china is GONE!  So i've spent some time telling them to chill and not hoard..it isn't responsible or necessary.  Just get the normal 2 or 4 cans of rice, not 2 cases, etc.  Buncha noobs.
And that's the bottom line; for millions of ordinary people the value of their homes has declined so far that it doesn't make sense mathmatically to stay there.

But, where do we go? My wife is watching a friends kids from her church today. They lost their house and joined the renters market.

The sick feeling I have is that two years from now, after spending most every cent I bring in I will be jealous of them who could read the writing on the wall.

Things could also turn around and we could get back the 85k and counting we have lost. That will only happen if home values stay wildly out of whack with median incomes, which doesn't seem good for anybody.


All in all...things seem pretty fucking grim. I'm trying to remain optimistic.

Things have to turn around. Don't they?
2008-04-25 12:49:38
IRONCHEF
Member
+385|6488|Northern California
You're right there.  And with any mature investors (the guys who listened to their stock brokers on that ATT or MS stock buys long ago), sitting out the storms is a wise idea.  If you're in the right area, and you can hack through the bad property value times and the recovery several years away, you'll have faired well, fulfilled your obligation as good as anyone could, and of course you'll keep your beautiful home.

Me however, in the dump I'm in, the regret I have that grows daily, the loss of only credit (no down, and only 2 years of payments equaling 24k) makes the choice easy.  2.9 million have bailed (probably 2m from the subprime borrowers, and the rest are "walk away" investors)  I wonder how many it will be before it bottoms out completely..in a year or so from now!  5 million?  10 million homes? 

**haha, nice adsense ad!  "drowning in debt! pay off your debts faster by consolidating and making things worse for you!!**

Now I know why the refinance market was pushed so much in California where the majority of home loans are non-recourse "cash purchase" type loans that the banks can't act on to recover lost payments...if you refinance, your loan turns to 'recourse' and they can collect/garnish/seize!
2008-04-25 19:12:44
Ender2309
has joined the GOP
+470|6568|USA
question: with home values in the gutter, that means this is a great time to buy, right?
2008-04-25 19:20:02
jsnipy
...
+3,276|6520|...

Ender2309 wrote:

question: with home values in the gutter, that means this is a great time to buy, right?
True. The good or bad aspect of all of this depends on how liquid you are.
2008-04-25 19:24:50
ATG
Banned
+5,233|6526|Global Command

Ender2309 wrote:

question: with home values in the gutter, that means this is a great time to buy, right?
I would wait another 4-12 months.

Watch for the local home sales to stabilize for two months, then buy.

Clean up your credit and prepare for a large down payment as jumbo loans are very hard to get, whereas before if you could sign your name they'd loan you 500k.
2008-04-25 19:24:54
Ender2309
has joined the GOP
+470|6568|USA

jsnipy wrote:

Ender2309 wrote:

question: with home values in the gutter, that means this is a great time to buy, right?
True. The good or bad aspect of all of this depends on how liquid you are.
now all i have to do is win the lottery...

seriously though, my dad always told me not to buy a house until i could pay cash for it. i guess i know why now.
2008-04-25 19:26:16
ATG
Banned
+5,233|6526|Global Command

Ender2309 wrote:

jsnipy wrote:

Ender2309 wrote:

question: with home values in the gutter, that means this is a great time to buy, right?
True. The good or bad aspect of all of this depends on how liquid you are.
now all i have to do is win the lottery...

seriously though, my dad always told me not to buy a house until i could pay cash for it. i guess i know why now.
That is crazy.

BUT...
I know a guy who has been renting for thirty years, he put all his money into a 401 K and is liquid for 1.5 mil.
2008-04-25 19:28:58
SenorToenails
Veritas et Scientia
+444|6127|North Tonawanda, NY

ATG wrote:

I know a guy who has been renting for thirty years, he put all his money into a 401 K and is liquid for 1.5 mil.
Hope he doesn't do something stupid and lose it, like this guy.
2008-04-25 19:29:18
jsnipy
...
+3,276|6520|...

Ender2309 wrote:

jsnipy wrote:

Ender2309 wrote:

question: with home values in the gutter, that means this is a great time to buy, right?
True. The good or bad aspect of all of this depends on how liquid you are.
now all i have to do is win the lottery...

seriously though, my dad always told me not to buy a house until i could pay cash for it. i guess i know why now.
Not really true. You should buy a house when you have money to ensure you have equity from the start (and enough to withstand market conditions). If you can get into a house and pay less than what you would be dumping into rent then that's the smart move. Otherwise ask your dad to stay there until you save up
2008-04-25 23:21:12
Ender2309
has joined the GOP
+470|6568|USA

ATG wrote:

Ender2309 wrote:

jsnipy wrote:

True. The good or bad aspect of all of this depends on how liquid you are.
now all i have to do is win the lottery...

seriously though, my dad always told me not to buy a house until i could pay cash for it. i guess i know why now.
That is crazy.

BUT...
I know a guy who has been renting for thirty years, he put all his money into a 401 K and is liquid for 1.5 mil.
not really. it all depends on your income and your family situation.

i'm starting college next year for civil engineering. average salary is over 100 grand. i plan to pursue my education to a doctorate, and unless i decide later on that i don't want to do that, i'll most likely be starting above the average salary.

now, if i stay single for a few years out of college, and start at a salary of 110k (about average), i make 79,200 after a 28% tax deduction. the cost of living for a single person is not high. lets assume thats a 25,000 cost, but thats probably a gross over estimate. that leaves me with 54,200 dollars that i have no use for. if i throw that into a high yield savings account with a 3.26% interest rate, i get 55978 total over a year. with the market in the can right now, i can buy a pretty damn good home in four or five years.

of course, if i start a family this isn't necessarily applicable, but i can still save quite a bit before moving to a larger home, plus sales of the existing home, if the market is right, can actually net me a profit, and i don't have to deal with a loan that might default or have other issues.

Last edited by Ender2309 (2008-04-25 23:25:29)

 

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