Pages: 1 2

 

2007-06-01 02:52:16
CameronPoe
Member
+2,925|6564
D&ST frequenters: Please outline what you would envisage happening in non-general terms if the US were to attack Iran. You can outline several scenarios, based on the various attack possibilities the US might choose to implement (if the worst comes to the worst).

Notes:

- I'm not talking purely militarily here, please expound on how an attack would affect the wider middle east, relations with China and Russia, the price of oil, the effect on western economies, etc.

Last edited by CameronPoe (2007-06-01 02:53:24)

2007-06-01 03:05:08
ghettoperson
Member
+1,943|6658

Well, I would say in short:
  • Price of oil would go up.
  • ME would get even more pissed off = more terrorists
  • Iraq would go even further down the shitter
  • Attacks on US troops would increase, most likely with more success due to them being stretched too thin. (assuming the US defeats the Iranians)
  • Both Russia and China would be pretty pissed, seeing as they both do business with Iran
  • Defence contractors would get richer
  • Average US taxpayer gets poorer
  • US gets further in debt


I may add to this later.
2007-06-01 03:08:40
Varegg
Support fanatic :-)
+2,206|6819|Nårvei

I hardly see this scenario unfolding while Bush is still president, he have his reputation in the history books as first priority these days.

However if it where to happen like say tomorrow several things could happen:

*We would prolly see $100 pr barrel of oil
*A devastating argument between European countries ..... again
*A rising Russia would definitely be on the other side should it escalate
*China would as usual throw in a veto in the security council
*Balance of power and the insurgents would just move on to yet another country, maybe Pakistan this time
*US defence industry would yet again set a new all time high and further throw the poverty of the US government to the ground leaving the slim chance of a balanced budget far into the next millennium
*Norway would prosper even more and double it`s all ready gigantic fortune
Wait behind the line ..............................................................
2007-06-01 03:09:51
necroyeti1612
Member
+6|6192|Vienna, AUT
Hmm what would happen the same thing always happen if you piss someone of. In the end all your enemies will ally and them...apocalypse.
Now seriously...hmm I would think that sometime the asian would teach usa a lesson and stop oil export to us. With each day bush as president and US fights "terrorists" in asia they lose reputation and the ability to be taken serious.
Worst case maybe again a world economic crisis.

Thanks for your attention
2007-06-01 03:13:13
ShowMeTheMonkey
Member
+125|6711
I actually don't think the UK would ever back that up again, as the big T has gone (soon).
2007-06-01 03:18:32
necroyeti1612
Member
+6|6192|Vienna, AUT

ShowMeTheMonkey wrote:

I actually don't think the UK would ever back that up again, as the big T has gone (soon).
Am I hearing a slightly dislike of toni blair overthere? :-)

Thanks for your attention.
2007-06-01 03:43:43
Cerpin_Taxt
Member
+155|6212
There wouldn't need to be an invasion or occupation. Just a week of bombing to take out their nuclear facilities and any mechanized military or airforce they have left. It would probably be over before we realized it started.
2007-06-01 03:51:27
CameronPoe
Member
+2,925|6564

Cerpin_Taxt wrote:

There wouldn't need to be an invasion or occupation. Just a week of bombing to take out their nuclear facilities and any mechanized military or airforce they have left. It would probably be over before we realized it started.
And then what? I want implications too. What would the response be for instance?
2007-06-01 04:02:03
Cerpin_Taxt
Member
+155|6212

CameronPoe wrote:

Cerpin_Taxt wrote:

There wouldn't need to be an invasion or occupation. Just a week of bombing to take out their nuclear facilities and any mechanized military or airforce they have left. It would probably be over before we realized it started.
And then what? I want implications too. What would the response be for instance?
Well, I'll probably still be buying cheap Chinese goods at Wal-Mart. Maybe Russia will start a nuclear war?
2007-06-01 04:45:14
BN
smells like wee wee
+159|6777
The US would have to go Iran on their own. The coalition of the willing's public will not tolerate another pre-emptive war.
2007-06-01 05:26:41
Braddock
Agitator
+916|6299|Éire
I think Russia would be a big factor, I could almost envisage a last minute step-in from Putin before the guns started to fire. Given that Putin has his new missile systems in place the US may be forced to hold back on any kind of explicit attack on the Iranians.

If there was an all out war Terrorism would get far worse than it is now. Iran if they were to respond at all might decide just to pick on Israel instead as it would be too hard logistically to attack the US in any kind of meaningful way.

Last edited by Braddock (2007-06-01 05:27:10)

2007-06-01 05:36:22
JahManRed
wank
+646|6637|IRELAND

The US would win the conventional war against Iran eventually. But with higher casualties than Iraqi.

Afghanistan, Iraqi Pakistan & Iranian Insurgencies will start to co ordinate with the help of the Pakistan covert military as they would be logically next on the list.

I think an attack on Iran would be the step too far and would ignite a new age of holy wars fought by proxy.

The insurgency would spread into North Africa. Attacking western targets and Christian Countries like Ethiopia would fight more proxy wars with her neighbours.

The US tax payer, after the Team America adulation of watching its shinny new planes blow the shit out of yet more towel heads, will feel the squeeze and loose interest and support.

The US Government will bring in yet more 'anti terror' laws to control the said disgruntled tax payers.
The US debt will increase.

More countries will loose Patience and stop trading in the dollar.

Oil Prices go up, US consumers pay more at the pumps, again weakening support.

China & Russia form an alliance effectively kick starting the cold war again with East Vs West with the middle east in middle and as the prize.

100 000s civilians including 10 000 of children die.

The UK won't support the war if an election is drawing near.

The US will eventually have to with draw with some puppet government installed that the people don't want and a civil war will ensue which will spill over into Iraqi & Turkey. Years of bloodshed will ensue and a hardliner/s will take power and set the development of Iran back 100 years. Women will be oppressed and Sharia(sp) and all the brutality that goes with it, will rule the country.
2007-06-01 05:37:02
B.Schuss
I'm back, baby... ( sort of )
+664|6850|Cologne, Germany

well, I don't think the US could pull off a full invasion on its own, so I guess tactical air strikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities are the only option. After what happened in Iraq, it is highly unlikely that Bush ( or whoever follows him in office ) will be able to rally another coalition of the willing.

This is of course only true if nothing happens that makes the UN approve military action against Iran. But I don't think that is likely in the near future. Mainly because China and / or Russia would block any such move in the security council.

If the US attacks Iran's nuclear facilities unilaterally, a couple of things are likely to happen:

- the US would isolate itself further on the world stage
- Relations between the US and other global players ( EU, China, Russia, India ) would get worse, with all sorts of political, economical and ecological implications.
- the oil price would skyrocket, putting a huge load on consumers and the world economy
- the US's chance for a balanced budget in the near future would be reduced to zero. coming generations would have to shoulder a lot of debt, more than they already do.
- defense contractors would get richer, while more US soldiers die for questionable reasons
- the US would become a nation even more divided, instead of being united behinds its government
- it is highly likely that the US would loose the few ME allies it still has left
- Islamic radicals in Pakistan might decide that now is a good time to overthrow the US-friendly military regime of President / Dictator Musharraf and gain control of the nation's nuclear arsenal. I can't imagine the implications of such an event.
- overall, terrorist attacks against the US and other western nations ( even if those are no US allies in the Iran war ) would rise to a new high.
- the north korean peace process will be severely jeopardized, if not torpedoed.

However, I do think it is possible that the US will not attack Iran, in whatever shape or form.

1. The US military is already stretched beyond belief.
2. War ain't cheap. Does the US have the money ?
3. It is possible that the US public will not tolerate another pre-emptive war. Resistance in congress would be massive
4. It is now mid-2007. With the War in Iraq going as it is, it is quite likely that no further serious military action will be initiated by GWB until he leaves office. What a possible successor would do, cannot be predicted.
I know, elections won't be until November, 2008, and the new President won't be sworn in until January, 2009; but I don't think Bush wants to be known as the President who led the US into two unprovoked wars in one decade.

that's all I can think of now.
2007-06-01 05:40:54
Braddock
Agitator
+916|6299|Éire
Trent Reznor has described fully what will happen...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology … ality_game
2007-06-01 05:58:08
Elamdri
The New Johnnie Cochran
+134|6655|Peoria

Braddock wrote:

Trent Reznor has described fully what will happen...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology … ality_game
Trent Reznor is also a fucking moron.


The only thing I truly worry about is Russia and China's reaction. The only reason they even give a damn is because they don't want the US to control the world's oil supply, as that would give the west too powerful an upper hand.
2007-06-01 06:41:49
B.Schuss
I'm back, baby... ( sort of )
+664|6850|Cologne, Germany

oil may be important on short-term basis, but it is quite likely that we will run out of oil by 2060.
To us, that may seem far away, but in historical dimensions, it's like tomorrow. The ME will cease to be the US's playground sooner than we think.

Come to think of it, I may just live long enough to see the end of the oil era. The day when no soldier or civilian has to die for his nation's economical interests any more will be a good day indeed.

The sooner the US realizes that renewable energy sources are the future, and puts some serious money into research and development, the sooner you can show those MEC's the finger.
2007-06-01 06:56:45
Elamdri
The New Johnnie Cochran
+134|6655|Peoria

B.Schuss wrote:

oil may be important on short-term basis, but it is quite likely that we will run out of oil by 2060.
To us, that may seem far away, but in historical dimensions, it's like tomorrow. The ME will cease to be the US's playground sooner than we think.

Come to think of it, I may just live long enough to see the end of the oil era. The day when no soldier or civilian has to die for his nation's economical interests any more will be a good day indeed.

The sooner the US realizes that renewable energy sources are the future, and puts some serious money into research and development, the sooner you can show those MEC's the finger.
I think you and I will live to see the end of the oil era...


But I think you are sadly mistaken if you think a day will come when no soldier or civilian will die for economic interests...


I think in the end, it is all about stability. Western Europe, Russia, China, none of these countries/blocs want the US to have a dominant supply over the majority of the world's oil. Right now, the oil is in the hands of greedy princes and totalitarian governments, who are perfectly happy to bend to the will of stronger countries, so long as they maintain their own sovereignty.


I agree that oil isn't going to just last forever. However, right now oil is the great equalizer amongst nations. Every nation with a mechanized industry is reliant on oil to maintain it's industry. Without oil, we couldn't run our cars, fly our planes, drive our tanks. Trade breaks down, military breaks down, and everything stagnates.

SO, what happens when you create a renewable energy source?

Imagine that oil is like a lame foot. Right now, every nations is hobbling along on crutches, their lame feet keeping them at the same pace, and relatively equal power. Now, pretend renewable energy is the surgery to heal that lame foot. The country that gets that surgery is able to shed their cast, discard the crutches, and run. And while that country is running far ahead of other countries, those countries will become angry and jealous, because they are still forced to hobble along. They will loose more and more, because the countries no longer bogged down by oil will have new freedom. Stronger militaries will develop that aren't hindered by a finite power source. Industry will improve and life will become overall better...But only for the haves, not the have nots.

And thus the gears of war will start to turn again.
2007-06-01 07:04:16
S.Lythberg
Mastermind
+429|6455|Chicago, IL
1.Us Invades Iran
2.Main iranian army is rapidly defeated (M1A2 > T74)
3.Iraqui style insurgency, only more organized, since Iran does not have tribal feuds.
4.Insurgents and remaining army divisions destroy most or all oil production.
5.US is forced to tap its own oil reserves to offset massive increase in oil prices.
6.UN goes wild as gas prices skyrocket and demand the US pull out or open its reserves to global use.
7.terrorist groups find thousands of new recruits in Iran, and are able to pull of one or more attacks on US soil or US interests abroad.

In short, we can beat Iran easily, but we cannot handle the aftermath.
2007-06-01 07:09:10
Elamdri
The New Johnnie Cochran
+134|6655|Peoria
The mistake is ALWAYS occupation and nation-building
2007-06-01 07:15:35
B.Schuss
I'm back, baby... ( sort of )
+664|6850|Cologne, Germany

Elamdri wrote:

B.Schuss wrote:

oil may be important on short-term basis, but it is quite likely that we will run out of oil by 2060.
To us, that may seem far away, but in historical dimensions, it's like tomorrow. The ME will cease to be the US's playground sooner than we think.

Come to think of it, I may just live long enough to see the end of the oil era. The day when no soldier or civilian has to die for his nation's economical interests any more will be a good day indeed.

The sooner the US realizes that renewable energy sources are the future, and puts some serious money into research and development, the sooner you can show those MEC's the finger.
I think you and I will live to see the end of the oil era...


But I think you are sadly mistaken if you think a day will come when no soldier or civilian will die for economic interests...


I think in the end, it is all about stability. Western Europe, Russia, China, none of these countries/blocs want the US to have a dominant supply over the majority of the world's oil. Right now, the oil is in the hands of greedy princes and totalitarian governments, who are perfectly happy to bend to the will of stronger countries, so long as they maintain their own sovereignty.


I agree that oil isn't going to just last forever. However, right now oil is the great equalizer amongst nations. Every nation with a mechanized industry is reliant on oil to maintain it's industry. Without oil, we couldn't run our cars, fly our planes, drive our tanks. Trade breaks down, military breaks down, and everything stagnates.

SO, what happens when you create a renewable energy source?

Imagine that oil is like a lame foot. Right now, every nations is hobbling along on crutches, their lame feet keeping them at the same pace, and relatively equal power. Now, pretend renewable energy is the surgery to heal that lame foot. The country that gets that surgery is able to shed their cast, discard the crutches, and run. And while that country is running far ahead of other countries, those countries will become angry and jealous, because they are still forced to hobble along. They will loose more and more, because the countries no longer bogged down by oil will have new freedom. Stronger militaries will develop that aren't hindered by a finite power source. Industry will improve and life will become overall better...But only for the haves, not the have nots.

And thus the gears of war will start to turn again.
well, in that case, let's hope that the now oil-producing countries will invest some of the hard-earned cash in renewable energy development, allowing them to run as fast as we hopefully will.

And let's also hope that the "have not's" won't have the ressources to do anything about it.

Then again, don't you think that we can all profit from alternative energy, maybe eliminating the "have not's" ?

yeah, I know, it's utopic
2007-06-01 07:32:30
superfly_cox
soup fly mod
+717|6790

Iran's autocratic leadership would be defeated and the Iranian people would embrace americans as liberators and then there would be peace and democracy and religious tolerance through out the middle east!

I think its a great idea!
2007-06-01 08:08:59
B.Schuss
I'm back, baby... ( sort of )
+664|6850|Cologne, Germany

superfly_cox wrote:

Iran's autocratic leadership would be defeated and the Iranian people would embrace americans as liberators and then there would be peace and democracy and religious tolerance through out the middle east!

I think its a great idea!
seconded, +1 for supahfly
2007-06-01 08:27:13
RicardoBlanco
The English
+177|6577|Oxford

Cerpin_Taxt wrote:

There wouldn't need to be an invasion or occupation. Just a week of bombing to take out their nuclear facilities and any mechanized military or airforce they have left. It would probably be over before we realized it started.
Like Iraq?
2007-06-01 08:55:45
rawls2
Mr. Bigglesworth
+89|6569

JahManRed wrote:

Years of bloodshed will ensue and a hardliner/s will take power and set the development of Iran back 100 years. Women will be oppressed and Sharia(sp) and all the brutality that goes with it, will rule the country.
How is that any different then what is happening now or what has been happening for the all the previous years?
2007-06-01 09:06:09
Bertster7
Confused Pothead
+1,101|6590|SE London

RicardoBlanco wrote:

Cerpin_Taxt wrote:

There wouldn't need to be an invasion or occupation. Just a week of bombing to take out their nuclear facilities and any mechanized military or airforce they have left. It would probably be over before we realized it started.
Like Iraq?
No. It's a very different situation to Iraq, who had no real military or airforce or nuclear facilities. The US could destroy the bulk of Irans military and their nuclear facilities quite quickly and be gone in a matter of weeks or possibly a couple of months. I reckon it would be a disaster though, but not from a military perspective.

 

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