Turquoise wrote:
This is a fascinating question.... I'm not sure what to think.
The more cynical part of me assumes that these people will just react out of desperation and stir up more trouble than before. However, the more positive possibility is along the lines of what you stated.
I think there is another likely possibility though. Iran also uses Syria as a go-between for Hezbollah. They may just seize more control of Syria through the market and through putting friends into powerful positions. I have a feeling an oil-less Syria may become more of a terror supporting state if things get desperate enough (and if Iran still has a crazy government in power by then).
The weird thing about the article I read was they stated the US had floated incentive packages in the past, targeted at making the country self-sufficient via economic aid (industry building), and there was a positive response. It also included a "cut ties with terrorists" clause and still was received positively. Syria also is one of the countries that hasn't been "chummy" (meaning somewhere between "I'm listening...go on" and indifferent) yet it has an embassy. Applying the "invade for Democracy" approach may have worked with them if this kind of support exists...but more likely the indirect approach via industry would have worked (pre-Hez of course).
The article also stated that Iran would not see the country as useful...so there's an opening. I'm a half-full kind of guy, so I also believe that once the oil is gone in Syria the likelihood that Iran uses it as a puppet state seems a bit too hard to swallow - I don't think a huge portion of the population will want to turn to violence to support itself when an alternative is suggested.
But more likely, Iran will absorb them somehow. Of course, with the oil gone, it will be more desperate for them so who knows. Syria is already importing oil...
Of course this was pre-Hez/pre-Iraq...but what if you take a traditional angry country and turn it into something else? What impact would it have? Would it improve the way we are perceived in the Middle East?
Yeah, there's a lot of ifs...but assuming things calm down and some tenative peace is restored, the door may creak open.