Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6512|Texas - Bigger than France
I read a pre-recent-conflicts-in-the-Middle-East article about Syria has probably about 3-5 years left of oil.  When gone...the country's usefulness to Iran is lessened...the economy will be even worse then it is now..etc etc etc.

So do you think happens with the ground stops flowing oil in the Middle East?  It'll happen one country at a time...then what happens?

Is that when peace reigns?  Because then perhaps other nations can bring in people to set up new industries and help out...

Is that when violence is par for the course?

Is there a massive exodus from the Holy Land?
UGADawgs
Member
+13|6291|South Carolina, US
Hopefully by that time our dependence on Middle East oil will have continued to drop, whether due to ethanol, production in other nations or the US, etc. Some countries like Qatar have gotten rich more on banking and finances rather than oil. Whether they can continue to do this is questionable, but some of the less-prepared nations will certainly be up a creek when the oil runs out.

The big problem would be that the numerous civil uprisings occurring due to the crap economies would be conductive to terror growth.  On the other hand, the lack of any real economic interest in the Middle East may make our leaders more willing to blast any enemies with impunity.
UON
Junglist Massive
+223|6623
Is dependence dropping?  I thought that it was on the rise...

What will happen as supplies dwindle is that the price of oil will increase massively, and those nations who aren't great consumers can eke out their supply and become very, very rich.  Meanwhile the price of food will increase and increase due to lack of oil, and at least 3 billion people will die of starvation.
UGADawgs
Member
+13|6291|South Carolina, US

UON wrote:

Is dependence dropping?  I thought that it was on the rise...

What will happen as supplies dwindle is that the price of oil will increase massively, and those nations who aren't great consumers can eke out their supply and become very, very rich.  Meanwhile the price of food will increase and increase due to lack of oil, and at least 3 billion people will die of starvation.
I don't mean oil in general, but just the Middle East. We get a lot more from home and other countries than we did before.
PluggedValve
Member
+17|6310

UGADawgs wrote:

UON wrote:

Is dependence dropping?  I thought that it was on the rise...

What will happen as supplies dwindle is that the price of oil will increase massively, and those nations who aren't great consumers can eke out their supply and become very, very rich.  Meanwhile the price of food will increase and increase due to lack of oil, and at least 3 billion people will die of starvation.
I don't mean oil in general, but just the Middle East. We get a lot more from home and other countries than we did before.
Call up yer friends to the north.  We got oil.  Go Canada!!
Varegg
Support fanatic :-)
+2,206|6780|NÃ¥rvei

Norway still have plenty of oil and gas and are heavily developing renewable energy resources for the future unlike those that thought they had plenty and left it with that blowing all their income from crude on fancy cars and palaces instead of science to cope with the time it runs out !
Wait behind the line ..............................................................
UON
Junglist Massive
+223|6623

UGADawgs wrote:

UON wrote:

Is dependence dropping?  I thought that it was on the rise...

What will happen as supplies dwindle is that the price of oil will increase massively, and those nations who aren't great consumers can eke out their supply and become very, very rich.  Meanwhile the price of food will increase and increase due to lack of oil, and at least 3 billion people will die of starvation.
I don't mean oil in general, but just the Middle East. We get a lot more from home and other countries than we did before.
As a resource, it's in limited supply, and demand isn't going decrease until it is forced to do so by high cost.  Using up the other supplies first will just mean that there will be loads of high value oil left in the Middle East, and very little anywhere else.  That's probably why America is so keen on keeping the oil flowing from the region.

Decreasing dependence on one group of suppliers will have no long term benefit at all... the only way to avoid the inevitable is giving up the Western addiction to an oil fueled lifestyle and economy.

Varegg, Norway is one of those "nations who aren't great consumers" which I mentioned... it's already known that they get a huge amount of energy from hydro-electricity, and they are more known as a supplier of oil than a consumer.  So they are ideally positioned when we enter the downward slope of the bell curve of global oil production.

And anyway a few fancy cars and palaces are a pittance compared to the sort of income lot's of countries like Saudi Arabia get from oil, and they are sitting on a hell of a lot more...
usmarine2007
Banned
+374|6337|Columbus, Ohio
yay!  Then we can eat OUR oil for a few years and pwn.
KylieTastic
Games, Girls, Guinness
+85|6422|Cambridge, UK

Syria may not have much left but 2007 guestimates still put Middle East way infront on reserves:

All figures in 'Billion of Barrels' from January 1, 2007

Middle East 739  (Saudi Arabia 262; Iran 136; Iraq 115; ........  Syria 2.5 ...)
North America 213   (Canada 179; US 21; ...) 
Africa 114 (Libya 42; Nigeria 36; ...)
Central & South America 103 (Venezuela 80; ...)
Eurasia 99 (Russia 60; Kazakhstan 30; ...)
Asia & Oceania 33 (China 16; ...)
Europe 16 (Norway 8; UK 4; ...)


Stats from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html

Last edited by KylieTastic (2007-01-30 15:56:21)

usmarine2007
Banned
+374|6337|Columbus, Ohio

KylieTastic wrote:

All figures in 'Billion of Barrels' from January 1, 2007


Europe 16 (Norway 8; UK 4; ...)


Stats from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html
Sounds like someone has worse oil dependency than they admit.
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6512|Texas - Bigger than France
I'm specifically asking about the impact on the Middle East...not the rest of the world. 

The primary economy in the region is somehow tied to oil production.  Very few countries have much of an economy beyond working the pumps.  Many of these nations on the decline, the rich people actually don't even live in the country anymore - leaving the poorer to work the oil fields, etc.

So that's why I'm asking - long term - will there be economic development in the region?  Will the have-and-have nots cause a massive war?  Whadda you think?

I think that we'll see some of the alliances shift in the region.
UON
Junglist Massive
+223|6623

usmarine2007 wrote:

KylieTastic wrote:

All figures in 'Billion of Barrels' from January 1, 2007


Europe 16 (Norway 8; UK 4; ...)


Stats from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html
Sounds like someone has worse oil dependency than they admit.
UK is definitely up shit creek, hence the massive bill hikes in recent months.  That's why I got a low consumption core 2 duo (honestly ). 

I'm under no illusion that the UK will suffer greatly in the "Die Down" as I like to call it.  People depend on low supermarket prices for food, and essentially food is going to become an expensive and rare commodity.  And I actually don't see a solution, other than the conservation of global oil supplies to keep food affordable and the restriction of breeding.  But that's never going to happen....
jonsimon
Member
+224|6465

Pug wrote:

I'm specifically asking about the impact on the Middle East...not the rest of the world. 

The primary economy in the region is somehow tied to oil production.  Very few countries have much of an economy beyond working the pumps.  Many of these nations on the decline, the rich people actually don't even live in the country anymore - leaving the poorer to work the oil fields, etc.

So that's why I'm asking - long term - will there be economic development in the region?  Will the have-and-have nots cause a massive war?  Whadda you think?

I think that we'll see some of the alliances shift in the region.
My first guess would be more fighting. Less money, greater scarcity, more fighting. But I could be drastically underestimating the industry of the area and or drastically overestimating how much of the oil money the average middle eastern is affected by.
Ashford
Member
+2|6619
One simple explantion were there is no oil left.... one word...


HEMP
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6375|North Carolina

Pug wrote:

I read a pre-recent-conflicts-in-the-Middle-East article about Syria has probably about 3-5 years left of oil.  When gone...the country's usefulness to Iran is lessened...the economy will be even worse then it is now..etc etc etc.

So do you think happens with the ground stops flowing oil in the Middle East?  It'll happen one country at a time...then what happens?

Is that when peace reigns?  Because then perhaps other nations can bring in people to set up new industries and help out...

Is that when violence is par for the course?

Is there a massive exodus from the Holy Land?
This is a fascinating question....  I'm not sure what to think.

The more cynical part of me assumes that these people will just react out of desperation and stir up more trouble than before.  However, the more positive possibility is along the lines of what you stated.

I think there is another likely possibility though.  Iran also uses Syria as a go-between for Hezbollah.  They may just seize more control of Syria through the market and through putting friends into powerful positions.  I have a feeling an oil-less Syria may become more of a terror supporting state if things get desperate enough (and if Iran still has a crazy government in power by then).
iamangry
Member
+59|6615|The United States of America

UON wrote:

usmarine2007 wrote:

KylieTastic wrote:

All figures in 'Billion of Barrels' from January 1, 2007


Europe 16 (Norway 8; UK 4; ...)


Stats from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html
Sounds like someone has worse oil dependency than they admit.
UK is definitely up shit creek, hence the massive bill hikes in recent months.  That's why I got a low consumption core 2 duo (honestly ). 

I'm under no illusion that the UK will suffer greatly in the "Die Down" as I like to call it.  People depend on low supermarket prices for food, and essentially food is going to become an expensive and rare commodity.  And I actually don't see a solution, other than the conservation of global oil supplies to keep food affordable and the restriction of breeding.  But that's never going to happen....
America is by far the largest producer of food in the world.  In a pinch the midwest could be opened up (i.e., not paid to plow under some of their crops) to feed the UK and anyone else who had stuck with us through thick and thin.  That, and those figures cited way above don't take into account the MASSIVE amounts of shale oil in Canada, which tops a trillion barrels of oil by some internal estimates by the oil companies (my dad works for ExxonMobil).  And then there's still Alaska. 
In other words, so long as Canada, USA, and Great Britain remain the good friends we are today, we will be fine.  As for the rest of you, well, thats why Germany, France, Russia, and China all liked Saddam Hussein and the easily exploitable oil for food program so very much.

Last edited by iamangry (2007-01-30 21:19:21)

liquix
Member
+51|6424|Peoples Republic of Portland
no oil = complete breakdown of the world economy, starvation, war, and massive population loss. Currently we rely on oil for so much that we simply can't exist w/o it.
CoronadoSEAL
pics or it didn't happen
+207|6488|USA
alaska alaska alaska.  also, we will make advancements in alternative fuels.
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6375|North Carolina

CoronadoSEAL wrote:

we will make advancements in alternative fuels.
..only if Exxon approves of it.
{DGC}{jr.}Blitzkrieg
Member
+10|6806|Arizona
Honestly, if you look at why they all fight...it's not for oil. It's for religion. Oil's just a way to fund the explosives. I think they'll keep fighting till the last man with or without oil to help them. You also have to look at the fact that Russia has been starting its oil drills back up in the past few years and has been producing alot and still rising. Hydrogen, Wind, Solar, Ethanol. These are all great ideas, it's just companies like ExxonMoblie, Shell, and others that would suffer so badly if we made any enhancement into other forms of energy. It's just like if the government were to legallize weed in America, the Tobbacco companies would loose money because nobody'd be buying that crap.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6742|PNW

Pug wrote:

I read a pre-recent-conflicts-in-the-Middle-East article about Syria has probably about 3-5 years left of oil.  When gone...the country's usefulness to Iran is lessened...the economy will be even worse then it is now..etc etc etc.

So do you think happens with the ground stops flowing oil in the Middle East?  It'll happen one country at a time...then what happens?

Is that when peace reigns?  Because then perhaps other nations can bring in people to set up new industries and help out...

Is that when violence is par for the course?

Is there a massive exodus from the Holy Land?
They've killed before, they'll kill after.
.cat.
Member
+4|6309
Those of you that do not have much background in geopolitics and oil, google the Green River Formation. We have more Oil then Saudi Arabia sitting in our backyard. Why dont you know about this? Well quite simply the government has this area as protected. The Oil companies are trying to get their greedy hands on formulating a more cost effective way to extract Oil from the Shale formation since the government is allowing the research now.
imortal
Member
+240|6635|Austin, TX

{DGC}{jr.}Blitzkrieg wrote:

Honestly, if you look at why they all fight...it's not for oil. It's for religion. Oil's just a way to fund the explosives. I think they'll keep fighting till the last man with or without oil to help them. You also have to look at the fact that Russia has been starting its oil drills back up in the past few years and has been producing alot and still rising. Hydrogen, Wind, Solar, Ethanol. These are all great ideas, it's just companies like ExxonMoblie, Shell, and others that would suffer so badly if we made any enhancement into other forms of energy. It's just like if the government were to legallize weed in America, the Tobbacco companies would loose money because nobody'd be buying that crap.
Well, they fight because the people running the terrorists have theri own goals.  They use religion as an excuse to recuit the common grunts.  If they cannot appeal to your faith, they will settle for intimidation and strong arm tactics to get you to do what they want.

The cruasades were started because the catholic church was running out of money.  Not much ever changes.

Actually, most oil companies are putting massive money into solar power; they want it as much as we do. Then they could sell energy without having to buy the 'crude' product from anyone.  Massive profits.  The problem is that current solar panels are maybe 18% effecient.  Solar cannot replace oil until it manages to hit 50% effeciency or better.  Also, it is too expensive and difficult to generate hydrogen on the scale for a large replacement of current cars.  To use hydrolosis to generate the hydrogen requires massive amounts of power, which will be too inefficient until.... solar comes around.

If they legalized weed, the tobacco companies would be the ones marketing the product. 

Be careful in your assumptions.
imortal
Member
+240|6635|Austin, TX

jonsimon wrote:

Pug wrote:

I'm specifically asking about the impact on the Middle East...not the rest of the world. 

The primary economy in the region is somehow tied to oil production.  Very few countries have much of an economy beyond working the pumps.  Many of these nations on the decline, the rich people actually don't even live in the country anymore - leaving the poorer to work the oil fields, etc.

So that's why I'm asking - long term - will there be economic development in the region?  Will the have-and-have nots cause a massive war?  Whadda you think?

I think that we'll see some of the alliances shift in the region.
My first guess would be more fighting. Less money, greater scarcity, more fighting. But I could be drastically underestimating the industry of the area and or drastically overestimating how much of the oil money the average middle eastern is affected by.
It would go to pot.  The only reason we care about the place is the oil.  The British and the French formed the nightmare we have there when those empires grabbed random nomad tribes, made them 'royalty,' and randomly created lines on a map and called them countries.

Let them all go to pot.  They will run out of money eventually if we stop using oil.
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6512|Texas - Bigger than France

Turquoise wrote:

This is a fascinating question....  I'm not sure what to think.

The more cynical part of me assumes that these people will just react out of desperation and stir up more trouble than before.  However, the more positive possibility is along the lines of what you stated.

I think there is another likely possibility though.  Iran also uses Syria as a go-between for Hezbollah.  They may just seize more control of Syria through the market and through putting friends into powerful positions.  I have a feeling an oil-less Syria may become more of a terror supporting state if things get desperate enough (and if Iran still has a crazy government in power by then).
The weird thing about the article I read was they stated the US had floated incentive packages in the past, targeted at making the country self-sufficient via economic aid (industry building), and there was a positive response.  It also included a "cut ties with terrorists" clause and still was received positively.  Syria also is one of the countries that hasn't been "chummy" (meaning somewhere between "I'm listening...go on" and indifferent) yet it has an embassy.  Applying the "invade for Democracy" approach may have worked with them if this kind of support exists...but more likely the indirect approach via industry would have worked (pre-Hez of course).

The article also stated that Iran would not see the country as useful...so there's an opening.  I'm a half-full kind of guy, so I also believe that once the oil is gone in Syria the likelihood that Iran uses it as a puppet state seems a bit too hard to swallow - I don't think a huge portion of the population will want to turn to violence to support itself when an alternative is suggested.

But more likely, Iran will absorb them somehow.  Of course, with the oil gone, it will be more desperate for them so who knows.  Syria is already importing oil...

Of course this was pre-Hez/pre-Iraq...but what if you take a traditional angry country and turn it into something else?  What impact would it have?  Would it improve the way we are perceived in the Middle East?

Yeah, there's a lot of ifs...but assuming things calm down and some tenative peace is restored, the door may creak open.

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