unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6918|PNW

Repeatedly using it as contrast.

Dilbert: "China doesn't do this stuff I think we shouldn't do, so why should we do it?"
Also Dilbert: "China shouldn't be doing this stuff!"
uziq
Member
+492|3598

Dilbert_X wrote:

It is however liberal countries burning themselves out making the world a better place allows the selfish countries to steal a march on them.

NSW Health has revealed 72 per cent of COVID positive patients admitted to ICU since December 16 were infected with the Delta variant of the virus, not the Omicron strain.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-04/ … /100736056
So Omicron being less harmful is irrelevant.

Of those patients, 62 per cent were not vaccinated or had received only one dose of a vaccine
Presumably 38% were fully vaccinated. Doesn't really seem like we're winning here.
delta is serious business and by all accounts the most fearsome strain yet, yes.

however it’s not enough information to say ‘38% were vaccinated and still hospitalised’. vaccinated when? boostered when? it has been clear to public health efforts for quite some time now that getting the elderly and vulnerable topped up with boosters in a timely manner should be the absolute top priority.

for the last 2 waves and year or so of this pandemic it has become increasingly obvious that this is now a disease of the weak and the elderly. you are literally 10,000x more likely to become seriously ill or die from covid if you are old than in your 20s. going into the third year of this thing, societies have to seriously reckon with the implications and costs of asking young people to, once again, miss university or forestall their careers, or for young workers to take productive time out of the economy, etc, for the sake of the elderly or the plain selfishly unvaccinated.

i would never have argued with this sort of reasoning before vaccines and treatments were available. but the effects of the pandemic now are so stratified, so clearly divided between these groups, that mass lockdowns no longer seem viable. shielding the elderly and vulnerable should be a top priority: of course. but young parents, young workers, children, students, etc, are pretty well sick of pussyfooting around an illness that barely affects them.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-04 01:10:50)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,813|6252|eXtreme to the maX
Maybe older people are sick of young people being selfish?

Fully vaccinated people are dying. Exactly when they were vaccinated or boostered who knows, doesn't change the fact. If the vaccines are that unpredictable and ineffective clearly we need to rely on other controls. Sorry if that means you can't gallivant off to Japan or SE Asia on your hols.

If people like you weren't so selfish, expecting to continue global travel during a lethal fucking pandemic probably this thing would have been much less severe, people wouldn't have had their university courses or careers fucked up o anything like the same extent.

Once again, here we've basically had life as normal for two years, every outbreak and the current explosion driven by the moronic insistence on travel.
If people want to place blame for their university education and careers being on hold blame it on travel-obsessed morons.

In the first six months of this, first half of 2020, I really thought we'd get this under control, but everyone has been so fucking dumb at every turn - led by America and Britain - that we're now utterly fucked.
Really sorry if your travel and partying has been constrained, boo hoo.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-01-04 01:31:19)

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
+492|3598
dilbert i am really sick of you telling me that australians were happy with state-by-state isolation, and then citing to me western australia and perth, the de facto most isolated human community on the planet, or telling me that ‘most australians are fine with living in a covid-free bubble forever’, and then conveniently ignoring your most populous and busiest, meaning most afflicted, states as being full of ‘stupid people’.

this is just inane. use your head and stop being such a stubborn, narrow minded, and indeed selfish fool.

pursuing zero covid hasn’t worked for your most populous regions, where indeed the economic, cultural, educational, etc, heart of your nation lies. nevermind the fact that you’re an island nation at the ‘end of the line’ for most supply routes and international flights, and not a travel or logistics hub. right there in NSW and victoria, where your business centres are; where your universities are; where your cultural hubs and main institutions are; in these places precisely the experience of lockdowns has been highly disruptive. you’re going into a third year now of asking young workers, young career-builders, young university students, young business owners, etc, to tolerate 260 days of closed doors and shuttered campuses. come on.

please stop fucking telling me that aussies are all hunky-dory with zero covid. the majority are polling in support of gradual reopening. the experience of vast numbers of your countrymen simply isn’t the WA/SA model. you’re cherrypicking two of the lowest populated, and most remote states in the world here. it’s exasperatingly dumb.

yes, at a certain point many people, businesses included, are going to advocate for the reopening of international borders too. if you think ‘wanting to gawp at elephants in thailand’ is the impetus for this, you need to get your head checked. many families are split across international borders now. cross-border migration or dual-citizenship is a common feature of our globalised world for many, many people. someone wanting to see their family in india is no less selfish than you wanting to keep society permanently shuttered for the sake of your own vulnerable loved ones.
uziq
Member
+492|3598
amazing ranting by the way. you repeated the same thing for 4 paragraphs. go and have a lie down, you’re sweating. no, the pandemic did not spread globally and escalate because of ‘selfish travellers’. i don’t know how many times this point has to be made to you. it’s honestly so boring at this point. do you really think covid rates increased exponentially in the first 6 months because of travel? i think a total lack of meaningful response from so many world governments w/r/t their own populations might have had a little something more to do with it.

but, sure, if only all borders everywhere were arbitrarily closed! i’m sure covid would never have leaked across when it was more or less escalating freely within those borders. borders are magic!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,813|6252|eXtreme to the maX
Once again, in WA there was 94% support for the govt strategy of zero covid, I think thats the highest political poll number I've ever heard.
I'll bet same was true in the other states where they didn't fuck things up, NT, SA, Tas, ACT.

The majority were in favour of gradual reopening once we hit 90% vaccination - which I guess people thought meant something - not removing all contraints in the space of a couple of weeks and letting it rip with not the most basic planning. Now they're literally making up the rules hour by hour.

"You need a negative PCR test within seventy-hours of travelling interstate, the queues are too long, OK get a PCR test when you arrive and isolate until you get a result, they're not available, OK get a RAT test, they're not available either, OK just go ahead and travel and get a test if you get symptoms, still too hard to get a test, OK assume you have covid but carry on with what you're doing and call an ambulance if you get sick, EDs are overwhelmed, OK don't call an ambulance unless you're literally dying"
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
+492|3598
WA ... how many hundreds of km's do you have to drive to cross a state-border and be affected in any way by a 'state-wide' local lockdown there? jesus fucking christ, hahahah. amazing reasoning, dilbert. i'm sure that's exportable and seamlessly transferrable to tokyo or new york. would that every state electing to be in permanent isolation had FOUR deserts and a 600km+ trip to the next out-of-state city, eh.

it's 2500 km from perth to adelaide. on a european scale, you would have to travel from london to moscow. i'm frankly amazed that the people of WA aren't bothered by state-border covid restrictions!!!

here we go again, where you're mentioning the particulars of 'no-holds barred' reopening, as if that's what i'm advocating for or as if that's the only way. it's not. the simple fact is that you can manage a return to normal society, whilst shielding the elderly and vulnerable AND letting people go back to school/work/play, without it being a unique disaster. many countries are negotiating this process - or were, before the arrival of omicron, at least - without throwing all caution to the wind as your bete noires in eastern australiia seem to be doing.

i honestly have zero interest in arguing over the particulars of what a state governor said and did, as part of an incredibly local political/electioneering calculus. i don't care. the public in that state clearly have expressed a wish to return to normal; how they go about it is up to them.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-04 04:23:28)

uziq
Member
+492|3598
in other news, up to 15% of all current UK omicron cases (which are something like 90-95% of all their new cases at this point) are now reinfections.

so, in other words, a drastically milder form of covid than any previous strain, including the original virus, is now in general circulation amongst the population and is even reinfecting people.

this is a sign for cautious optimism. a largely harmless version of covid is washing over the population and triggering immune/antibody responses. i hate to raise the tainted spectre of 'herd immunity', as it was associated with so much 'let a few die and let's get on with it' rhetoric in the pre-vaccine days, but that is essentially what will happen if a very highly infectious (meaning also effectively uncontainable), mild form of the disease (made all the milder by vaccination) maintains its hold on the pandemic.

omicron could be the exit through to endemic status. for any future mutant strains to displace it, ecologically speaking, they would have to find a way to out-compete its insanely high transmissibility due to its infecting upper-respiratory tract cells. which means moving out of the deep lungs, where lethal strains like delta do their worst. in addition, they would have to be very nasty indeed to seriously affect any populace who were habituated and herd-immune to frequent omicron infection.

winter will still be harsh on the health services, in any case, due to the first wave of omicron infections plus the residual delta wave/tail (depending on country) working itself out.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-04 04:27:22)

uziq
Member
+492|3598

Larssen wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/30/up-to-three-covid-jabs-a-year-could-be-needed-for-protection-data-suggests

Australians may have to receive two or even three Covid jabs each year to maintain defences against the virus if early results on the efficacy of booster shots turn out to be a useful guide.

Weekly data published just before Christmas by the UK’s Health Security Agency shows the effectiveness of both the Pfizer and Moderna boosters against symptomatic diseases is lower for the Omicron than the Delta variant across all periods after the injection.

Health worker with Pfizer vaccine
Why has Australia reduced the Covid vaccine booster shot wait time to five months?
Read more
The analysis included 147,597 Delta and 68,489 Omicron cases in the UK. The agency stressed the “results should be interpreted with caution due to the low counts and the possible biases related to the populations with highest exposure to Omicron (including travellers and their close contacts) which cannot fully be accounted for”.

The UK data showed both Pfizer and Moderna boosters had 90% effectiveness against symptomatic diseases from the Delta variant up to at least nine weeks.

By contrast, efficacy against the Omicron strain was about 30% lower, and appeared to drop away further after nine weeks.
and now.

Israeli study finds fourth vaccine dose boosts antibodies five-fold

A fourth dose of Covid vaccine boosts antibodies five-fold a week after the shot is administered, the Israeli prime minister, Naftali Bennett, said on Tuesday, citing preliminary findings of an Israeli study.

“A week into the fourth dose we know to a higher degree of certainty that the fourth dose is safe,” Bennett said at Sheba Medical Centre, which is giving second booster shots in a trial among its staff amid a nationwide surge in Omicron variant infections.

“The second piece of news: we know that a week after administration of a fourth dose, we see a five-fold increase in the number of antibodies in the vaccinated person,” he told reporters.

“This most likely means a significant increase against infection and ... hospitalisation and (severe) symptoms,” Bennett said in English.
god damn those evil israelis with their large-scale pilot schemes and data sharing!
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+640|3866
So the plan is twice yearly boosters while we wait for COVID to mutate into the common cold. It's a plan but the government needs to come and say "this is the plan" and also send more stimulus. Please.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+492|3598
the plan, forever, is going to be continually updated vaccines, regular vaccination as with flu, and the development of better parallel therapeutics and medications such as antiviral pills, patches, nasal sprays, etc.

best-case scenario, covid's mutation stabilizes into several major strains which each occupy their own ecological 'niche' as far as adaptation/natural selection goes, and we can develop a suite of vaccines, or even better one catch-all vaccine, targeted specifically at these dominant strains (as has happened for flu over its long evolution).

longer-term strategies would involve better funding and organization of medical systems to respond to a new illness, endemic in the population, and probably peaking on seasonal/annual cycles. we can plan for this and adapt accordingly. there's really no need for hospital systems to be blindsided or for ventilators or ICU beds to run out of capacity when we're in year 5 of a pandemic. not in rich western nations, anyway. the failure to prepare and allocate resources is a political one, over the medium and long term.

social distancing measures, increased sanitation and hygiene measures in public spaces and public transport, etc, are probably going to become the norm for the foreseeable, like having to take your shoes off and get patted down by the TSA became the 'new normal' after 9/11. pre-testing and vaccine passport apps are probably going to be commonly used for large gatherings or public events.

that's my best guess.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-04 05:52:38)

Larssen
Member
+99|2034
social distancing and all is pretty incompatible with resumption of regular nightlife. Having said so I doubt we'll have a new round of restrictions into year 3 of the pandemic. Can't imagine january 2022 to be the same as january 2023. Or at least, I hope so.
uziq
Member
+492|3598
totally not true. night life resumed in the UK, germany, spain, etc, for a large stretch of 2021, prior to the emergence of the new highly transmissible strains.

the UK's NHS even piloted giant stadium-sized events that were tightly monitored and had follow-up testing. the fear of a 'superspreader' event were totally unfounded. vaccination from mRNA vaccines prevents even the carrying of virus in a high proportion of people.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+640|3866
Social distancing such as promoting WFH and distance learning can be positive.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Larssen
Member
+99|2034

uziq wrote:

totally not true. night life resumed in the UK, germany, spain, etc, for a large stretch of 2021, prior to the emergence of the new highly transmissible strains.

the UK's NHS even piloted giant stadium-sized events that were tightly monitored and had follow-up testing. the fear of a 'superspreader' event were totally unfounded. vaccination from mRNA vaccines prevents even the carrying of virus in a high proportion of people.
Yes night life resumed. But with other measures than social distancing. How do you expect to maintain 1,5m distance in a club. In the EU it's the QR code system that's intended to safeguard against mass infection and hospitalisation.

Having said so in the face of omicron the QR system isn't doing much to stop the spread.
uziq
Member
+492|3598
obviously you're not going to maintain 1.5 metres distance in a club. that's an overly literal interpretation of 'social distancing', in any case, and surely not the use that most people put it to.

if everyone in a club has been vaccinated and presents a negative test upon admission, it's probably pretty safe to continue. superspreader events seldom happened at these venues. night life, of a form, indeed returned. all through last year i saw non-stop DJ footage of festivals and clubnights. berlin only just banned 'dancing' and shuttered its clubs as germany started to enter its worst-ever peak.

QR systems went out the window in korea, too, once the daily cases exceeded the ability of the contact-tracing system to cope. they're retroactive only and don't make a whole lot of sense to me whilst contact tracing is a vain pipedream. as a bare minimum, though, they work by ensuring that everyone who enters a venue is registered and vaccinated.
Larssen
Member
+99|2034
The QR system is only used for vaccination registration *. It doesn't do tracking. In any case, there's a reason mostly young people are the first to catch and transmit new variants, it's precisely because they often engage in larger social gatherings. i.e. clubbing, sports matches and so on.

There's another system that monitors infection tracking. While conceptually innovative, that sort of system was far too ambitious. The information society hasn't progressed to a point where data collection is so sophisticated that you can instantly know when/where covid clusters start. It could only work if it were real-time. Give it another 50 years or so and you'll probably have some trinket diagnosing you long before you even notice symptoms.
uziq
Member
+492|3598
the implementation clearly varies a lot between countries. in korea, where there's drastically different understandings of privacy, the QR system really does track you. even if you don't use it, for whatever reason (highly unlikely that business owners would let you enter and get away with this), then the govt can just pull up your debit/credit card transaction history, anyway, and reconstruct your movements from there.

It could only work if it were real-time.
there's the rub with sars-cov-2, especially in its highly transmissible variants. a superspreader event could occur and you wouldn't even know it until minimum 3-5 days after; much longer with previous variants.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+640|3866
The Omicron surge threatens to upend any sense of peace in the nation’s education system.

After a holiday break that saw Covid-19 cases spike unrelentingly, a small but growing list of districts — including Newark, Atlanta, Milwaukee and Cleveland — moved temporarily to remote learning for more than 450,000 children.

Districtwide closures, even those that last for a week or two, are a step backward after months in which classrooms largely remained open.
...
And there are signs that some unions are becoming more resistant to in-person teaching. Members of the Chicago Teachers Union are preparing to vote on Tuesday on whether to refuse to report to schools starting the following day. The union, which has repeatedly clashed with Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s administration, had demanded that every student be tested for the virus before returning from winter break, a step the district did not take.
...
On Monday, it became clear that the testing effort had largely failed. Of 35,590 tests recorded by the district in the week ending Saturday, 24,843 had invalid results. Among those that did produce results, 18 percent were positive.
The balls on the Chicago teachers union is legendary but good God the political choices it sometimes makes.

Just have to see what happens in NYC. New mayor who vowed to keep schools open.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+492|3598
korea is a really interesting society when considering the efficacy of any measures, just because it's incredibly centralized, everyone does as they're told, and the community focus is so high.

1.5 months ago it looked like they would have to u-turn on their reopening plans. community transmission went from 500-1500 stable for the last 6 months to runaway figures, and scarily fast. people were becoming very relaxed and many (mostly elders, who cannot be criticized in public because of the face-saving elder-respect culture) were beginning to go back to their ways: spitting in the streets, not wearing masks, not washing their hands, etc. you know, post-war-generation habits.

korea was 90%+ double vaxxed when they began reopening. problem was, delta and other seasonal infections were leading to very high numbers of ICU admissions. korea was one of the only countries globally to begin reopening that actually saw a rise in death rate. so something had to change: re-enter summer social distancing measures (maximum group sizes, vaccine passports must be shown to enter any venues; curfews reinstated on night-time economy).

korean people (a) listen to the government and (b) scare easily. any rumour or talk that 'covid is getting bad', and the group and family networks circle the wagons. young people, who mostly live at home, are strongly pressured not to visit virus hotspots or engage in high-risk activities. the whole society battens down the hatches. and we are not talking a small 'pilot'-sized society here, either, like an israel or even an australia. we're talking 55 million people following instructions and acting swiftly.

anyway. about those vulnerable old people who were dying off: it's because they all received 2x doses of AZ last spring. korea had to deploy a booster programme. and fast.

and that's what they did. in the last month, 78% of the elderly have received a booster. rapid, rapid deployment using their do-everything chat app (kakao) and widespread availability of drop-in clinics. in the last month, with the above-mentioned social distancing measures, a runaway case load that was breaking records every day (most cases, most deaths in the whole pandemic) has now halved. it's averaging 3,000 cases/day this week, down from 7-8k last week and 10k over christmas.

great stuff. still waiting to see how omicron plays out here, though. soon we should be in a position to begin broaching the re-opening plans again. originally they wanted all restrictions to be lifted by february.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-04 09:45:52)

uziq
Member
+492|3598
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FINXeoeXMAYjI69?format=jpg&name=large

we are now +1 month from the arrival of omicron in the U.K.  it accounts for almost all new cases. record levels of cases.

… do you need any clearer indication that this pandemic has changed into something else? the number of people on vents or in ICUs hasn’t changed at all.  the chart has even adjusted for lag between positive cases and severe disease. the link does. not. exist. anymore.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FINoFwYXwAYGwjQ?format=jpg&name=large

pressure on ICUs in general is way lower than this time last year.

the problems this winter are sheer pressure on health systems from general admissions – not acute disease. and the old are still vulnerable without vaccination/boosters.

still, i am cautiously optimistic.
pirana6
Go Cougs!
+691|6437|Washington St.
I'm dumb but I'll admit I always assumed each new variant made it more deadly. Why does is Omicron going so much easier on us? Is the next variant just as like to be more deadly than the last as it is to be less deadly?
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,813|6252|eXtreme to the maX
Right so we were told:

One dose of vaccine should be good for 12mths-indefinite, wait, no it isn't, 6-12mths max

Two doses - No need for any more, wait its only good for three-six months

Two doses + booster - Terrific antibody response, thats it you're good to go, hold on no it isn't only 3-4mths

Two doses + two boosters - Best antibody response ever, this things over

Omicron is still putting people in hospital and killing people, its not 'just a sore throat' a la 'its just the flu'. It seems more mild, doubtless the vaccine is having some effect and doubtless hospital treatment is much better aligned than it was but its not 'just the flu' by any stretch yet.
It could easily still be a benign blip in what has generally been a vicious virus, that vaccinated people are getting it multiple times suggests we might not ever achieve herd immunity at all and we'll all get it over and over - this is not good news.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-01-04 15:21:35)

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
+492|3598

pirana6 wrote:

I'm dumb but I'll admit I always assumed each new variant made it more deadly. Why does is Omicron going so much easier on us? Is the next variant just as like to be more deadly than the last as it is to be less deadly?
viruses don’t (necessarily) evolve to become more deadly. it’s in their evolutionary interest to replicate, not kill humans. they’re not some malign force of nature.

new variants could emerge which are more deadly but they have to compete against the current strains, not against humans per se. a highly transmissible variant has an obvious advantage over a deadly one. could there be a highly transmissible + highly deadly variant? possibly, but it goes against our current understanding of the disease. what makes omicron so transmissible is because it spreads outside of the lungs. what made strains like delta deadly was the damage they did to deep lung tissue. so somehow a new variant would have to gain the edge of transmissibility over omicron.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-04 15:34:29)

uziq
Member
+492|3598
dilbert you still seem confused that viruses mutate and vaccines have to play catch-up.

first gen vaccines could have given long-lasting immunity to the original covid. but it doesn’t and didn’t stay still. what we have now are first gen vaccines against covid version 285, the fourth major release. that the vaccines still work well at all is a minor marvel of our modern science. we’ve never got to grips with a mutative coronavirus before.

which brings me to your last para. why doesn’t it necessarily bode well that we will be reinfected for the future? that’s exactly what happens with all other endemic coronavirus in existence.

yes, you’re going to have to get a vaccine booster for the foreseeable future. possibly for the rest of your life or until mother nature throws us some lucky hands. get over it.

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