uziq
Member
+476|2882
in this pandemic i see only one group who are acting and reacting out of fear. only one group who are taking to the streets, shouting at nurses, storming into state capitols with their guns. shouting. panicking. jay's enemy seem to be fine with staying inside and making sacrifices for the public weal. do these people have to convince themselves that the people following guidance are doing so out of perpetual fear? isn't it all just projection?

remember how snappy and short-tempered jay was when he had covid? i'm sure that wasn't anxiety-driven or fear-related at all. and now he's on the other side of his bout, everyone else is a pussy and jay is the level-headed master of the universe. let's wait and see what happens when he catches a second bout this fall. because that is exactly what is going to happen if new york state don't get on top of this thing. there are currently two major strains active in america at the moment, one seemingly much worse than the other, and mutated in a way that might make its reinfection window drastically shorter. jay can test his own courage.

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-06 07:29:11)

Larssen
Member
+94|1318
It's all because a certain media group has convinced its viewership covid19 was and is just a big hoax. That is the fundamental problem here. Jay is still claiming it is all just some overblown flu.

I believe these people have serious issues wrapping their heads around numbers and are strictly visual thinkers. When 9/11 happened the image of collapsing twin towers meant this was serious shit, but why worry about something you can't see.

There's so much irony in his position, here too, as you'd expect an engineer to be capable of basic math and understand that 68k dead in 30 days is pretty damn bad.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-05-06 08:02:16)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4788|London, England

uziq wrote:

in this pandemic i see only one group who are acting and reacting out of fear. only one group who are taking to the streets, shouting at nurses, storming into state capitols with their guns. shouting. panicking. jay's enemy seem to be fine with staying inside and making sacrifices for the public weal. do these people have to convince themselves that the people following guidance are doing so out of perpetual fear? isn't it all just projection?

remember how snappy and short-tempered jay was when he had covid? i'm sure that wasn't anxiety-driven or fear-related at all. and now he's on the other side of his bout, everyone else is a pussy and jay is the level-headed master of the universe. let's wait and see what happens when he catches a second bout this fall. because that is exactly what is going to happen if new york state don't get on top of this thing. there are currently two major strains active in america at the moment, one seemingly much worse than the other, and mutated in a way that might make its reinfection window drastically shorter. jay can test his own courage.
Yeah, it was a huge sacrifice on your part to sit at home, collect a paycheck, and force people to bring you food, and keep your lights on, and your water running. You thought nothing of the people that keep your day-to-day life going because you had a job that allowed you to sit home, scared and safe. Don't try to act like you made some noble sacrifice for the greater good.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4788|London, England

Larssen wrote:

It's all because a certain media group has convinced its viewership covid19 was and is just a big hoax. That is the fundamental problem here. Jay is still claiming it is all just some overblown flu.

I believe these people have serious issues wrapping their heads around numbers and are strictly visual thinkers. When 9/11 happened the image of collapsing twin towers meant this was serious shit, but why worry about something you can't see.

There's so much irony in his position, here too, as you'd expect an engineer to be capable of basic math and understand that 68k dead in 30 days is pretty damn bad.
Who's bad at math? You're still going on about death counts, as if people don't die every day for various reasons. A few hundred thousand more people will die from heart disease here in America this year than will die from coronavirus. It's but one of a myriad reasons people can and do die every day. You're still acting like we're all just one policy away from preventing every coronavirus death. "If we all just stayed home for two weeks it would vanish!" says the guy that has no idea how his plumbing works.

The virus is not nothing, but the mortality rate has shown that it's not much worse than the flu, and thus we should carry on with our lives.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
coke
Aye up duck!
+440|6139|England. Stoke
Absurd.
Larssen
Member
+94|1318
Jay, those are 68k EXTRA dead, on top of normal causes of death. Moreover, if hospitals have to devote all staff and space to manage covid 19 cases they no longer have staff and space available to deal with all regular ICU admissions, causing more indirect dead as well. Please for fucking once consider the compounding effects of this disease.

No, normal flu death rate is about 20x lower.

Let's take another statistic: annually the US sees 2,8 million deaths from all causes. Disease, accidents, natural causes, suicide, you name it. With covid19s death rate this number can more than double in 1 year.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-05-06 08:22:15)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4788|London, England

Larssen wrote:

Jay, those are 68k EXTRA dead, on top of normal causes of death. Moreover, if hospitals have to devote all staff and space to manage covid 19 cases they no longer have staff and space available to deal with all regular ICU admissions, causing more indirect dead as well. Please for fucking once consider the compounding effects of this disease.

No, normal flu death rate is about 20x lower.
Ok, go back in time and prevent it then. Please.

And no, it's somewhere between 100% and 300% of normal flu.

Last edited by Jay (2020-05-06 08:22:39)

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Larssen
Member
+94|1318
I'm doing my part by staying the fuck home. As should you.
Larssen
Member
+94|1318
If by flu you mean spanish influenza you would be right
uziq
Member
+476|2882

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

in this pandemic i see only one group who are acting and reacting out of fear. only one group who are taking to the streets, shouting at nurses, storming into state capitols with their guns. shouting. panicking. jay's enemy seem to be fine with staying inside and making sacrifices for the public weal. do these people have to convince themselves that the people following guidance are doing so out of perpetual fear? isn't it all just projection?

remember how snappy and short-tempered jay was when he had covid? i'm sure that wasn't anxiety-driven or fear-related at all. and now he's on the other side of his bout, everyone else is a pussy and jay is the level-headed master of the universe. let's wait and see what happens when he catches a second bout this fall. because that is exactly what is going to happen if new york state don't get on top of this thing. there are currently two major strains active in america at the moment, one seemingly much worse than the other, and mutated in a way that might make its reinfection window drastically shorter. jay can test his own courage.
Yeah, it was a huge sacrifice on your part to sit at home, collect a paycheck, and force people to bring you food, and keep your lights on, and your water running. You thought nothing of the people that keep your day-to-day life going because you had a job that allowed you to sit home, scared and safe. Don't try to act like you made some noble sacrifice for the greater good.
i'm referring to society at large, not myself, jay. most of my friends have been furloughed and are not complaining about it. the entire country is behind the NHS and our frontline health workers -- the people you dismiss and denigrate.

i can't help but feel that you're missing some essential capacity for reason. all you think about is narrow self-interest. if i'm okay with quarantine, that must be because i'm too afraid to ask my boss to remote work full-time (lol), or because i'm afraid to go outside (lol). you have no concept of people putting common good or society before their own immediate convenience. and that's all you're suffering yourself, really: minor inconvenience and a curtailed social life. for all your whining, as we have already established 50+ pages ago, my own situation is far more anxiety-inducing and serious than yours, with your bored children and delayed kindergarten. you are the one whinging here and making special pleading.
uziq
Member
+476|2882

Jay wrote:

Larssen wrote:

Jay, those are 68k EXTRA dead, on top of normal causes of death. Moreover, if hospitals have to devote all staff and space to manage covid 19 cases they no longer have staff and space available to deal with all regular ICU admissions, causing more indirect dead as well. Please for fucking once consider the compounding effects of this disease.

No, normal flu death rate is about 20x lower.
Ok, go back in time and prevent it then. Please.

And no, it's somewhere between 100% and 300% of normal flu.
the death rate for coronavirus is up to 20x higher than regular flu. you are taking the reported death rates from new york city for the world, without even taking into factor the geographical and demographical differences, to say nothing of the variances in data collection and reporting.

the global average death-rate for coronavirus is currently somewhere around 2% to 2.5%. that is much higher than flu. until the dust has settled on this first pandemic peak, the truth is that NYC, the US, and all the rest of the world doesn't have a realistic grip on the figures. you are literally taking the most generous reading of this and applying it as a global standard. what was that you were saying about 'scientists tricking people' with their worst-case scenarios? you're being just as dishonest by peddling the best case scenario as the norm.
Larssen
Member
+94|1318
There is an added insanity in the idea that medical professionals in hospitals throughout the world are sounding alarm bells because they're being flooded by a historic pandemic, and here's Jay to tell them they're all full of shit.
uziq
Member
+476|2882

Jay wrote:

You're still acting like we're all just one policy away from preventing every coronavirus death. "If we all just stayed home for two weeks it would vanish!" says the guy that has no idea how his plumbing works.
hahahahaha.  you might be able to fix a flush, jay, but you seemingly can’t read the news or understand basic epidemiology. several countries are now reporting zero covid-19 deaths after doing JUST WHAT YOU DISMISS. and which you keep conveniently denying.

https://ianjamesparsley.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/nz.jpg?w=584

march 29:
new zealand premiere says 'she would not tolerate tens of thousands of New Zealanders getting Covid-19 and dying for the nation to gain herd immunity before a vaccine is found.'
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea … rdern-says

may 4:
new zealand records first day with no new covid-19 cases since before lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ … e-lockdown

total UK deaths after u-turning away from 'herd immunity' strategy after one month: 30,000+

???

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-06 08:42:16)

Larssen
Member
+94|1318
To be fair NZs position is fairly unique being a sparsley populated island far off in the pacific. But definitely the right strategy for them.
uziq
Member
+476|2882
it's not unique. portugal are connected to the european landmass, with very close ties to spain and a huge border. spain was the centre of europe's pandemic. portugal meanwhile has almost zero covid-19 deaths. why? immediate lockdown.

south korea? one of the biggest metropolitan areas in the world, on china's doorstep. almost zero covid-19 deaths. why? immediate lockdown.

new zealand is NOT unique. stop peddling bollocks.
coke
Aye up duck!
+440|6139|England. Stoke
Jay showing some classic Asperger's like lack of empathy and understanding. Blind contrarianism to suit his own personnel wants.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4788|London, England

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

Larssen wrote:

Jay, those are 68k EXTRA dead, on top of normal causes of death. Moreover, if hospitals have to devote all staff and space to manage covid 19 cases they no longer have staff and space available to deal with all regular ICU admissions, causing more indirect dead as well. Please for fucking once consider the compounding effects of this disease.

No, normal flu death rate is about 20x lower.
Ok, go back in time and prevent it then. Please.

And no, it's somewhere between 100% and 300% of normal flu.
the death rate for coronavirus is up to 20x higher than regular flu. you are taking the reported death rates from new york city for the world, without even taking into factor the geographical and demographical differences, to say nothing of the variances in data collection and reporting.

the global average death-rate for coronavirus is currently somewhere around 2% to 2.5%. that is much higher than flu. until the dust has settled on this first pandemic peak, the truth is that NYC, the US, and all the rest of the world doesn't have a realistic grip on the figures. you are literally taking the most generous reading of this and applying it as a global standard. what was that you were saying about 'scientists tricking people' with their worst-case scenarios? you're being just as dishonest by peddling the best case scenario as the norm.
See, now this is the fundamental disconnect. If you take the confirmed deaths and divide by confirmed cases, you do indeed arrive at rather alarming death rates. Completely agree with that, and that is what the media is publishing, unfortunately.

The problem with that is the numbers are skewed heavily towards the deathly ill because those are the people seeking out tests. People with mild cases either don't know they're sick, or they'd rather reserve scarce resources for the more seriously ill. So the reported numbers are inherently biased.

In order to mitigate the bias, what needs to be done is something similar to election polling. You take a completely random, but representative, sample of the population, give them antibody tests, and then you can safely extrapolate from there, within the margin for error. This has been done in several places (LA, New York, Miami, and I'm sure others) in the US, and what they've found is that the spread of the virus actually far exceeds the official positive cases by a factor of up to 50, with around 30 being the median. So if there are 10,000 reported positive cases, the real number of people who have had the virus is somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 people.

So take your 2-2.5% number and divide by 30-50 and you arrive at the real mortality rate. It's not much above the normal flu.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+476|2882
except every scientist and epidemiologist in the world disagrees with you.

the total death rate is vastly under-reported, too. we are barely even managing to keep tabs on our closely adjacent private hospitals and care homes. we have no idea how many cases are raging in care homes at the moment, despite a heavy overlap between them and the NHS. as for people dying in private in the population, in their homes, who knows? the tests aren't being done, exactly as you say.

total cases are undoubtedly bigger than recorded. but so are total deaths. as i said yesterday, italy just upped their estimate for dead by 16,000. china re-estimated their total dead and upped it by +50% (allowing for china's political malfeasance). this is what happens when people pause to try and get a grip on the scale of things. total dead rises too.

your math is bad. you are running the best-case scenario, one which does not accord with the reality reported by frontline medical workers or the data scientists running the figures on this.

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-06 08:49:29)

coke
Aye up duck!
+440|6139|England. Stoke
When was the last time "normal flu" killed 70,000 odd Americans in a few months?

Last edited by coke (2020-05-06 08:50:41)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4788|London, England

uziq wrote:

except every scientist and epidemiologist in the world disagrees with you.

the total death rate is vastly under-reported, too. we are barely even managing to keep tabs on our closely adjacent private hospitals and care homes. we have no idea how many cases are raging in care homes at the moment, despite a heavy overlap between them and the NHS. as for people dying in private in the population, in their homes, who knows? the tests aren't being done, exactly as you say.

total cases are undoubtedly bigger than recorded. but so are total deaths. as i said yesterday, italy just upped their estimate for dead by 16,000. china re-estimated their total dead and upped it by +50% (allowing for china's political malfeasance). this is what happens when people pause to try and get a grip on the scale of things. total dead rises too.

your math is bad. you are running the best-case scenario, one which does not accord with the reality reported by frontline medical workers or the data scientists running the figures on this.
Ok
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4788|London, England

coke wrote:

When was the last time "normal flu" killed 70,000 odd Americans in a few months?
it's not abnormal for 100,000 Americans to die in a flu season. 50,000 seems to be about the average.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4788|London, England

Larssen wrote:

There is an added insanity in the idea that medical professionals in hospitals throughout the world are sounding alarm bells because they're being flooded by a historic pandemic, and here's Jay to tell them they're all full of shit.
They were caught off guard and unprepared. We've since stockpiled PPE and built up extra hospital capacity.

Last edited by Jay (2020-05-06 08:54:28)

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+476|2882

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

except every scientist and epidemiologist in the world disagrees with you.

the total death rate is vastly under-reported, too. we are barely even managing to keep tabs on our closely adjacent private hospitals and care homes. we have no idea how many cases are raging in care homes at the moment, despite a heavy overlap between them and the NHS. as for people dying in private in the population, in their homes, who knows? the tests aren't being done, exactly as you say.

total cases are undoubtedly bigger than recorded. but so are total deaths. as i said yesterday, italy just upped their estimate for dead by 16,000. china re-estimated their total dead and upped it by +50% (allowing for china's political malfeasance). this is what happens when people pause to try and get a grip on the scale of things. total dead rises too.

your math is bad. you are running the best-case scenario, one which does not accord with the reality reported by frontline medical workers or the data scientists running the figures on this.
Ok
add to this picture that covid-19 has seemingly mutated and got worse. a more aggressive european strain is now establishing itself as the main culprit showing up in tests worldwide. a more infectious version has emerged and could possibly bring with it shorter reinfection windows and a higher risk of mortality. against your best-case scenario positive thinking mantra, there's an equally possible bad scenario. the spanish flu? the vast majority of deaths were recorded by people catching it on a second wind, a reinfection several months later. the virus mutated and cleaned up. we simply do not know if that's the direction it's taking at the moment.

it's not abnormal for 100,000 Americans to die in a flu season. 50,000 seems to be about the average.
those are annual stats. even if the daily/weekly deaths for covid-19 remained at their current levels, it would far outstrip flu. we're only just into may.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4788|London, England

uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

except every scientist and epidemiologist in the world disagrees with you.

the total death rate is vastly under-reported, too. we are barely even managing to keep tabs on our closely adjacent private hospitals and care homes. we have no idea how many cases are raging in care homes at the moment, despite a heavy overlap between them and the NHS. as for people dying in private in the population, in their homes, who knows? the tests aren't being done, exactly as you say.

total cases are undoubtedly bigger than recorded. but so are total deaths. as i said yesterday, italy just upped their estimate for dead by 16,000. china re-estimated their total dead and upped it by +50% (allowing for china's political malfeasance). this is what happens when people pause to try and get a grip on the scale of things. total dead rises too.

your math is bad. you are running the best-case scenario, one which does not accord with the reality reported by frontline medical workers or the data scientists running the figures on this.
Ok
add to this picture that covid-19 has seemingly mutated and got worse. a more aggressive european strain is now establishing itself as the main culprit showing up in tests worldwide. a more infectious version has emerged and could possibly bring with it shorter reinfection windows and a higher risk of mortality. against your best-case scenario positive thinking mantra, there's an equally possible bad scenario. the spanish flu? the vast majority of deaths were recorded by people catching it on a second wind, a reinfection several months later. the virus mutated and cleaned up. we simply do not know if that's the direction it's taking at the moment.

it's not abnormal for 100,000 Americans to die in a flu season. 50,000 seems to be about the average.
those are annual stats. even if the daily/weekly deaths for covid-19 remained at their current levels, it would far outstrip flu. we're only just into may.
Yeah? I just read this morning it's weakening.

Flu season is only a few months out of the year.

Last edited by Jay (2020-05-06 08:59:13)

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+476|2882
yes but, you know jay, covid-19 isn't flu. it doesn't have a 'season', none that we have established, anyway. we do not know if it will be seasonal. even so, we can at least expect it to come back and resurge as much in the autumn/winter of this same year as it did in january/february. see what i mean when i point to problems with comparing it with flu?

https://e3.365dm.com/20/05/1600x900/skynews-virus-preprint_4983784.png?20200505153935

multiple active strains of a virus are bad news, regardless. it means more vaccination work is required, and opens people up to reinfection.

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-06 09:08:05)

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