Larssen wrote:Jay, those are 68k EXTRA dead, on top of normal causes of death. Moreover, if hospitals have to devote all staff and space to manage covid 19 cases they no longer have staff and space available to deal with all regular ICU admissions, causing more indirect dead as well. Please for fucking once consider the compounding effects of this disease.
No, normal flu death rate is about 20x lower.
Ok, go back in time and prevent it then. Please.
And no, it's somewhere between 100% and 300% of normal flu.
the death rate for coronavirus is up to 20x higher than regular flu. you are taking the reported death rates from new york city for the world, without even taking into factor the geographical and demographical differences, to say nothing of the variances in data collection and reporting.
the global average death-rate for coronavirus is currently somewhere around 2% to 2.5%. that is much higher than flu. until the dust has settled on this first pandemic peak, the truth is that NYC, the US, and all the rest of the world doesn't have a realistic grip on the figures. you are literally taking the most generous reading of this and applying it as a global standard. what was that you were saying about 'scientists tricking people' with their worst-case scenarios? you're being just as dishonest by peddling the best case scenario as the norm.
See, now this is the fundamental disconnect. If you take the confirmed deaths and divide by confirmed cases, you do indeed arrive at rather alarming death rates. Completely agree with that, and that is what the media is publishing, unfortunately.
The problem with that is the numbers are skewed heavily towards the deathly ill because those are the people seeking out tests. People with mild cases either don't know they're sick, or they'd rather reserve scarce resources for the more seriously ill. So the reported numbers are inherently biased.
In order to mitigate the bias, what needs to be done is something similar to election polling. You take a completely random, but representative, sample of the population, give them antibody tests, and then you can safely extrapolate from there, within the margin for error. This has been done in several places (LA, New York, Miami, and I'm sure others) in the US, and what they've found is that the spread of the virus actually far exceeds the official positive cases by a factor of up to 50, with around 30 being the median. So if there are 10,000 reported positive cases, the real number of people who have had the virus is somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 people.
So take your 2-2.5% number and divide by 30-50 and you arrive at the real mortality rate. It's not much above the normal flu.