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rdx-fx
...
+955|6135
On China - Henry Kissinger Is where the thread title comes from

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

Why does everyone think China is going to conduct a full-fledged invasion of the world? It's an economically horrible idea. The US Navy should be rightly embarrassed at being caught by surprise rather than us allowing our diplomats to publicly whine to China about one of our fleets being shadowed.
They're not going to invade the world.

China is the reigning undisputed world champion of playing the "long game".
Historical events from 1,000 years ago are "recent precedent" to their psyche.

America may swing its dick around a bit, but we're far too worried about hurting people's feelings.
Loud, aggressive - but quick to change course and/or apologize if someone cries.

China plays a quieter game, but plays to win, and "fuck your hurt feelings or bad PR. We won, you lost.  Have your cry and get over yourself"

The only reason China isn't going to take over as "lone superpower" is that their economic growth is, essentially, financed akin to buying a house with your credit cards.  A real world recession will hurt the West - it could potentially sink the Chinese economy.

The West is going to be forced into spending less money on toys (Boomer Economy), and more money on taking care of bankrupt old parents (retiring boomers).  THAT will be the acid test of China's new economy, when we stop being their #1 consumer of cheap plastic junk.  They manage that test, then you'll see China exert influence on the world stage, in an overt manner.
Shocking
sorry you feel that way
+333|5543|...
I agree. They've yet to experience an economic bust, it will be interesting to see how they're going to cope when our eventual downturn comes. I say eventual because at present it seems that too little is being done to try and save the economy, too slowly. Especially in Europe - the modus operandi seems to be to do as little as possible, at as late a time as possible with enormously painstaking, long political debate preceding it. Needless to say markets aren't exactly reacting the way people want. If they get on with their ideas of implementing eurobonds a lot of fiscal integration has to follow it - and fast. If not the EU can end up fragmented, get split up with two currencies - or worse - fail altogether, causing a worldwide depression of 1920s scale.

On the other hand we have the US, in which the fed has pretty much exhausted all its options. All the cards have been on the table for quite some time now and we're heading for yet another round of quantitative easing. With the economy in a ditch and politicians not addressing the most important issues in this matter, instead focusing on more polarization, removal of the middle ground and extreme policies (hello Bachmann winning the straw poll), I don't see any hopes of us getting anywhere. Merkel in Europe, having an impressive background demonstrating real intelligence but showing a complete lack of leadership where it's needed, and the other side Obama in the US, whilst being one of the most impressive speakers in modern history, pursuing the wrong values at the wrong time and being devoid of pragmatism.

In between of all this are the emerging economies, most importantly China, thinking "oh crap". They had placed their bets on the west by luring our investors and buying our bonds, and now the ship is about to sink. They know better than anyone that if it goes down, they're done for as well.

Last edited by Shocking (2011-08-15 13:07:20)

inane little opines
Macbeth
Banned
+2,444|5130

As smart as Kissinger is I am a bit hesitant to believe he knows what's swimming around the psyche of the PRC leadership or China's national psyche. It smells a little of that whole Europeans making sweeping judgements on societies and governments based on some reading of history and a few preconceived notions that fill so many old books.

I do realize his history with China and I can see how he has way mote credibility on things than I do but it's just a feeling I get whenever I hear people talk about his book. I am also very skeptical of most "happening now" books...
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|5955|'Murka

Kissinger is arguably the most experienced Western statesman WRT China. We would do well to heed his words.

If we think we have a boomer generation problem, it's nothing compared to China's. They have a population of roughly the equivalent of the US approaching retirement age, with no safety net to speak of. That will cause an enormous drain on their economy in the next few decades.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
Beduin
Compensation of Reactive Power in the grid
+510|5294|شمال
military imperialist era is over. it all about business now. why invade a whole country, when you can invest in whatever is profitable for your bussiness. it will no longer be an issue of how other people live/think/govern. it will be more like: Shooww meeh the monnaaayyy
الشعب يريد اسقاط النظام
...show me the schematic
rdx-fx
...
+955|6135

Beduin wrote:

military imperialist era is over. it all about business now. why invade a whole country, when you can invest in whatever is profitable for your bussiness. it will no longer be an issue of how other people live/think/govern. it will be more like: Shooww meeh the monnaaayyy
Two world wars, Germany couldn't dominate Europe.

One recession, and they are positioned to own more of Europe than they ever dreamed of previously... 
cpt.fass1
The Cap'n Can Make it Hap'n
+329|6240|NJ
Yeah but who's just going to roll over and really just give them the there country?
krazed
Admiral of the Bathtub
+619|6324|Great Brown North

cpt.fass1 wrote:

Yeah but who's just going to roll over and really just give them the there country?
france

Spoiler (highlight to read):
it had to be said, sorry
rdx-fx
...
+955|6135

cpt.fass1 wrote:

Yeah but who's just going to roll over and really just give them the there country?
They don't have to invade with an army - send in the bankers and lawyers while they have the upper hand.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|6145|132 and Bush

rdx-fx wrote:

China plays a quieter game, but plays to win[/i]
You don't take on the big dog head on. You poison his food.

And yes, militarily speaking, America is still the big dog. That military is going to have a very hard sustaining itself though.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,282|6260

FEOS wrote:

Kissinger is arguably the most experienced Western statesman WRT China. We would do well to heed his words.

If we think we have a boomer generation problem, it's nothing compared to China's. They have a population of roughly the equivalent of the US approaching retirement age, with no safety net to speak of. That will cause an enormous drain on their economy in the next few decades.
Thing is with Chinese culture, the family stays together. Your parents raised you and you're expected to look after your parents after they retire. It's not uncommon for inlaws to send money as well.
https://cache.www.gametracker.com/server_info/203.46.105.23:21300/b_350_20_692108_381007_FFFFFF_000000.png
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|5955|'Murka

Cybargs wrote:

FEOS wrote:

Kissinger is arguably the most experienced Western statesman WRT China. We would do well to heed his words.

If we think we have a boomer generation problem, it's nothing compared to China's. They have a population of roughly the equivalent of the US approaching retirement age, with no safety net to speak of. That will cause an enormous drain on their economy in the next few decades.
Thing is with Chinese culture, the family stays together. Your parents raised you and you're expected to look after your parents after they retire. It's not uncommon for inlaws to send money as well.
I realize that. The problem is, there isn't enough savings or other funding in the economy to take care of these people, even with the burgeoning middle class.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,796|5650|eXtreme to the maX

rdx-fx wrote:

Loud, aggressive - but quick to change course and/or apologize if someone cries.
Erm hardly:

Cold war - 40+ Years
Vietnam - 10 Years
Iraq - Two wars, one of which is still ongoing 10 years on.
Afghanistan - Still ongoing 10 years on.

Still waiting for the apologies BTW.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|5955|'Murka

Cold War - what's to apologize for?

Vietnam - have apologized repeatedly (part of the Cold War, btw)

Iraq - have apologized for specific instances in the war

Afghanistan - see above

Courses have changed in three of the four. Rdx's point remains valid. Nice troll, though.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,796|5650|eXtreme to the maX
Cold war - putting millions under fear of nuclear obliteration.

Vietnam - When?

Iraq - Need to apologise for invading a country which didn't need invading.

Afghanistan - See above.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Shocking
sorry you feel that way
+333|5543|...
hahaha

oh Dilbert, you so crazy
inane little opines
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|5955|'Murka

https://i.imgur.com/ILRbAs.jpg

Cold War - US policy was "no first strike". How could that have put "millions under nuclear threat"? Oh, that's right...it didn't.

Vietnam - Just because you don't know about it doesn't mean it didn't happen

Iraq - Troll.

Afghanistan - Harbored/aided/abetted those who attacked us. If that war isn't justified, no war is. Troll.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,796|5650|eXtreme to the maX
Cold War - So? Pointless posturing which was never going to achieve anything except mutual obliteration, how was that useful?

Vietnam - Can't have been a big apology.

Iraq - No really, what was the need to invade Iraq? And not, say, Iran, Syria or Pakistan - a nuclear armed state still more in bed with AQ and the Taliban than any other? Oh yeah, they're too big for the US to take on - better to send SF units after goat herders in Afghanistan than try a land invasion of a country with 200million fanatics.

Afghanistan - You're thinking of Saudi Arabia.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2011-08-16 03:52:05)

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Shocking
sorry you feel that way
+333|5543|...
I think you're conveniently forgetting the Soviet Union in your analysis of the cold war Dilbert. It's not as if the conflict started for no reason.

Dilbert_X wrote:

Iraq - No really,
Saddam, we went over this already.

Last edited by Shocking (2011-08-16 03:53:09)

inane little opines
BALTINS
ಠ_ಠ
+37|6030|Latvia

Dilbert_X wrote:

Cold War - So? Pointless posturing which was never going to achieve anything except mutual obliteration, how was that useful?

Vietnam - Can't have been a big apology.

Iraq - No really, what was the need to invade Iraq? And not, say, Iran, Syria or Pakistan - a nuclear armed state still more in bed with AQ and the Taliban than any other? Oh yeah, they're too big for the US to take on - better to send SF units after goat herders in Afghanistan than try a land invasion of a country with 200million fanatics.

Afghanistan - You're thinking of Saudi Arabia.
Why was the cold war Americas fault?
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,796|5650|eXtreme to the maX
It was both sides fault, on the US side it suited the military-industrial complex to propagate it, on the Soviet side they were mostly mad.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,796|5650|eXtreme to the maX

Shocking wrote:

I think you're conveniently forgetting the Soviet Union in your analysis of the cold war Dilbert. It's not as if the conflict started for no reason.

Dilbert_X wrote:

Iraq - No really,
Saddam, we went over this already.
And why wasn't the Ayatollah a bigger threat than Saddam?
Hint: He was.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Shocking
sorry you feel that way
+333|5543|...
Uh not quite, the arms race was there to avoid the possibility of one side getting the upper hand. Both the west and the SU were paranoid about eachother, for good reasons mostly considering the differences in ideology and approach.
inane little opines
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,796|5650|eXtreme to the maX
No, they were just paranoid.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Shocking
sorry you feel that way
+333|5543|...

Dilbert_X wrote:

Shocking wrote:

I think you're conveniently forgetting the Soviet Union in your analysis of the cold war Dilbert. It's not as if the conflict started for no reason.

Dilbert_X wrote:

Iraq - No really,
Saddam, we went over this already.
And why wasn't the Ayatollah a bigger threat than Saddam?
Hint: He was.
Wasn't apparant in 2003 at all. Besides, the US wasn't involved that much with Iran anymore since after the revolution, and the country kept relatively quiet since.

I don't see why you'd state he is more dangerous though. Evidently Saddam is worse going by all his weapons programs, testing and crazy virtues.

Dilbert_X wrote:

No, they were just paranoid.
Astute observation

Last edited by Shocking (2011-08-16 04:01:38)

inane little opines

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