Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,818|6447|eXtreme to the maX
On the on hand I like to think Trump is now sitting there with his calculator adding up all the money he thinks his tariffs are going to deliver, not understanding that they'll probably deliver a net zero.
Hitting one completely co-dependent country, China, with tariffs (is 'tariffing' a word?) is one thing, there's not much they can do.
Hitting the whole world is another, there's no choice for them but to hit back, or collectively turn their backs and divest from trade with the US.

On the other this is a distraction from the game plan which is to separate Americans from their personal and national wealth.
"Hey, if you don't have a reason to trade with foreign countries you don't actually need dollars do you? Anyway, they've already been forcibly traded for TrumpCoins after your bank went bust.
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uziq
Member
+517|3794
i genuinely believe that trump just doesn't understand how tariffs work. anything macro is beyond his ken. conservatives love to weaponise the micro-scale fallacies about macroeconomics - 'balancing the household budget' and so on - to their own ends. i think trump really is stuck at the micro- level though. he's still a real estate hustler who thinks he can use fiscal measures to shake down foreign powers. not going to work.

i do think the people in his team and behind him know this, but they're seeing big opportunities in this 'reset'. not at all in the interests of the american populace, that goes without saying.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,818|6447|eXtreme to the maX
Well the starting point is no doubt Trump believes 'they' will just pay the tariff and not put up the price. All win for him.
In practice, and very obviously, someone somewhere has to find that money from somewhere.
Typically its going to be the manufacturer or importer and they are going to pass that cost on or stop manufacturing or importing.
Its hard to believe Trump is actually stupid enough to think this could work but I think its actually possible.

It does seem that Team Trump is pursuing both economic and military chaos, assuming they will come out on top holding all the land and all the gold.
Or that everywhere except America will be reduced to a wasteland so even if they go down they'll still look good comparatively.

The Neo-cons have been going on about cauldronisation forever, Netanyahu is doing it, maybe this is global cauldronisation and Trump is the ultimate useful idiot.
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uziq
Member
+517|3794
the entire way they've calculated the tariffs leads me to believe this really is not thought through.

in an 'art of the deal' way, they're clearly probably intended as a starting point for some hustle and negotiations. presumably every government is now intended to be quivering in their boots and queuing up for an audience with the capricious emperor.

i'm really not sure how it will play out in realpolitikal terms, however. for instance, the UK has the 'benefit' of a tariff of 10%. but where can we negotiate from here? not much wriggle room on the existing trade arrangements. it's going to mean accepting lots of chlorinated chicken and american private healthcare, i'm sure.

Last edited by uziq (2025-04-03 03:11:46)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,818|6447|eXtreme to the maX
Yeah I don't know.

When China put tariffs on Aus there was a collective gulp, followed by "OK fuck off then" and people found new markets and/or scaled back a bit.
It was painful but got done.

I mean, if America wants to pay 25% more for Australian beef thats fine, if not the chinese and japanese will buy it.
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uziq
Member
+517|3794
yes, none of this obviates the fact that a 'reset' has to involve a lot more than tariffs. the tariffs can only be 10% of the economic do-over that's needed if they are sincere about their stated aims of reorganising the global balance of trade.

slapping a tariff on something doesn't nullify the fact that americans want lots of 'made in japan', 'made in china', and lately 'made in vietnam' products whereas most chinese have absolutely no need or desire for a 'made in america' anything.

it's reminiscent of when nixon intentionally tried to sink japan's tiger economy, or when the british started up the opium wars because the qing emperor didn't for anything in trade with the west.

Last edited by uziq (2025-04-03 03:23:11)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,818|6447|eXtreme to the maX
But yeah, you can just retool your industry overnight and for nothing.

A question is whether 'Made in America' will mean made in a lights-out factory set up and maintained by Singaporeans using Taiwanese equipment and zero local labour.
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uziq
Member
+517|3794
there's some very funny useful idiots in the british press this week, who have been dyed-in-the-wool thatcherites for the last 40 years, antagonising and organising to similarly doctrinal ends, suddenly bemoaning the death of british steel. offshoring industry and manufacturing has been the entire point, while you've profited and asset-stripped. fucking loons.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,818|6447|eXtreme to the maX
What I remember the Thatcherite and Reaganite pro-offshoring crowd saying was "We should get rid of these grubby industries which no-one wants, and focus on what we are good at"
Turned out to be pretty much nothing.

I think they thought they could run the economy on services and the City of London, locking out the grubby proles from the profit centres.
It can almost work but people do unavoidably need manufactured goods, building materials, energy etc and if you're importing all that you need to sell an awful lot of nebulous services to pay for them.

People still don't seem to understand that balance of trade does matter and value addition is the core of a working economy, not trading.
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uziq
Member
+517|3794
https://x.com/quendergeer/status/1907873192053772502

good god, if this is true.

in STEM government we trust.
uziq
Member
+517|3794
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,818|6447|eXtreme to the maX
With everything going on why are you still using Terpufkat?
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Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,818|6447|eXtreme to the maX
"pompous Silicon Valley fucks who think they are general-purpose geniuses"

Whats funny is we've had 300 years of pompous Oxbridge fucks who think they are general-purpose geniuses, 150 years of pompous ivy league fucks who think they are general-purpose geniuses.

Now STEM-lords are in the ascendancy people like uzique are suddenly upset.
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